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Old 07-08-2015, 11:31 AM   #461
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Kinda shows how insignificant Greece is in the world economy....
Frustrating to have an economy the size of Rhode Island hurt so many create buying opportunities for retirement funds.
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Old 07-08-2015, 11:42 AM   #462
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
Kinda shows how insignificant Greece is in the world economy....
Yes, but sometimes the significance is out of proportion to money or GDP.

1. It would be the first country to drop out of the Euro. This would disprove the original Euro architect thinking that "you can join but you can never leave"

2. It could give ports or bases to Russia or China. Russia is not interested in loans to Greece but has said it is interested in getting access to their ports. And China is also interested in picking up on-sale Greek strategic assets.
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Old 07-08-2015, 12:41 PM   #463
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...How many aircraft carriers does Greece have?
As many as it needs?
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Old 07-08-2015, 12:53 PM   #464
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Tsipras was mobilizing his citizens to vote "No" on the referendum, claiming that it would give him more say in the negotiation. I do not see how.

Perhaps it is like an estranged person holding a gun to his own head, saying "back off or I will pull the trigger".
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Old 07-08-2015, 01:06 PM   #465
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And from Reuters today:

Quote:
The aim is for Eurogroup ministers meeting on Saturday to be in a position to recommend a loan, and some emergency bridging finance, which a full summit of the 28 EU leaders would approve on Sunday if they are satisfied with Greek reform commitments.
That is a big 'if', both due to Athens' chequered record and because many of the liberalization measures required run counter to the leftist ideology of Tsipras' Syriza party.
The prime minister promised to deliver detailed reform plans on Thursday and avoided the angry rhetoric that has alienated many European partners. He did however criticize attempts to "terrorize" Greeks into voting for "never-ending austerity".
The world will know that Tsipras is serious if he finally shows up to one of these meetings of world leaders wearing a tie.

And about those Greek reform plans: I don't know why the idea brought to mind a recent article in the Onion: Frogs Unveil 5 Million Year Plan to Move Up Food Chain
Quote:
EARTH—Declaring that they had occupied a low-level rung in the global ecosystem for far too long, the world’s frogs revealed Thursday an ambitious 5-million-year plan to move up the food chain.
According to frogs, the long-term, multipronged strategy will include a series of dietary, cognitive, behavioral, and morphological adaptations designed to help them as they evolve to inhabit a higher place in the biosphere’s order of predation. Provided they adhere to the developmental benchmarks they set out and run into few obstacles, frogs said they ultimately envision themselves at a tier of the food chain on par with hawks and ocelots.
. . . .
“Right now, we prey on flies, moths, crickets, and maybe a worm here or there, but mostly just assorted bugs. We no longer consider this acceptable. Under our new plan, we see ourselves regularly consuming rodents, lizards, rabbits, and, if everything goes as anticipated, bats. We recognize that such a diet will require pointed teeth as well as powerful jaws, and it is our intention to evolve these attributes on the fixed schedule we’ve laid out,” the frog continued. “As you can see on our timetable, we’ll start in on growing incisors in the near future.”
Obviously, I'm not comparing any humans to amphibians. But having a plan isn't the same as making progress.
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Old 07-08-2015, 01:11 PM   #466
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As many as it needs?
My point was making comparisons between debt per capita for two totally different countries is folly. One is a world power with its own currency and vast resources. The other drinks ouzo.
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Old 07-08-2015, 01:16 PM   #467
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I was listening to TV this morning and they were talking about the China meltdown...

Someone mentioned Greece and the talking head said that the Chinese economy is growing at a rate of a 'new Greece' every 6 weeks...

Kinda shows how insignificant Greece is in the world economy....
Greece is not insignificant because the world since 2008 has embarked on a policy of lifting financial stock markets and there was a set of assumptions that everything would work out in the end so massive borrowing by governments to relieve banks and poor countries in the end would work out. Governments and IMF are unsure of what actually will occur if Greece goes under, that is why IMF is warning US not to raise rates because they fear world economy could go back into deep recession. So it will be months till we find out if it is something or nothing.
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Old 07-08-2015, 01:21 PM   #468
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[...]

Don't believe me? Here's some data (a bit dated, from 2009-2012) that shows the effect of austerity on growth (from Paul Krugman via the IMF; x-axis is a measure of austerity, y-axis is growth, more details at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ty-europe-2/):

Regarding the phrase I put in bold in the quote above:

No - not exactly. This is a chart that shows *correlation*, not *causation*.

There's a big difference. Krugman blurs the distinction in the article, too, which I find disingenuous.

Certainly your argument (and Krugman's) is a very plausible explanation of the correlation, but there are other explanations, too.

For example, the chart could simply be showing that austerity arises after a combination of excessive debt financing combined with poor tax collecting (and the concomitant government corruption) which leads to unsustainable economic growth followed by contraction and sovereign debt default. So effectively, austerity could be a symptom of the irresponsible actions that caused the contraction, rather than the cause itself.

I haven't read enough to convince myself of one argument or the other, and in fact the likely explanation is a combination of factors, but in any case, the argument is not nearly as clear-cut in my mind as Krugman's article implies.
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Old 07-08-2015, 01:59 PM   #469
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Quote:
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... Don't believe me? Here's some data (a bit dated, from 2009-2012) that shows the effect of austerity on growth (from Paul Krugman via the IMF; x-axis is a measure of austerity, y-axis is growth, more details at ...
Regarding the phrase I put in bold in the quote above:

No - not exactly. This is a chart that shows *correlation*, not *causation*.

There's a big difference. Krugman blurs the distinction in the article, too, which I find disingenuous. ....

I haven't read enough to convince myself of one argument or the other, and in fact the likely explanation is a combination of factors, but in any case, the argument is not nearly as clear-cut in my mind as Krugman's article implies.
+1

Krugman is obviously a smart guy, but I find he tends to explain things in a way that fits his predetermined viewpoint. Everybody does that to some degree or from time-to-time, but you really need to watch for it in Krugman's comments.

-ERD50
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Old 07-08-2015, 02:11 PM   #470
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Tsipras was mobilizing his citizens to vote "No" on the referendum, claiming that it would give him more say in the negotiation. I do not see how.

Perhaps it is like an estranged person holding a gun to his own head, saying "back off or I will pull the trigger".
The trouble with a bluff is that you're screwed when it's called.
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Old 07-08-2015, 02:28 PM   #471
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My point was making comparisons between debt per capita for two totally different countries is folly. One is a world power with its own currency and vast resources. The other drinks ouzo.
Hey, what kind of disparaging remark is that?

I occasionally drink French pastis, a similar aperitif, mixed in with cold water. In the heat of summer, a glass of pastis cools one down very well. And sipping a glass while watching out over the blue Mediterranean Sea, man, how life can be any better? When people have been doing something for thousands of years, you've got to say perhaps they've got something right.

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Old 07-08-2015, 04:12 PM   #472
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I think that 25% unemployment along with a 25% GDP drop (pretty close to the US Great Depression) is a pretty tight belt for the Greeks. They're hardly living the high life these days.
It has been 5 years, two loan extensions, etc.. Greeks brought this on themselves and it's their problem to solve. What have they done to fight their way out of the situation? Not enough, apparently. Oh, yeah. They voted not to accept more belt tightening.

There are literally nations with people dying from hunger. I see Greeks on TV and I don't see the same despair or hunger. Not even close "to the US Great Depression" but they seem to be going there.
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Old 07-08-2015, 05:07 PM   #473
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It has been 5 years, two loan extensions, etc.. Greeks brought this on themselves and it's their problem to solve. What have they done to fight their way out of the situation? Not enough, apparently. Oh, yeah. They voted not to accept more belt tightening.

There are literally nations with people dying from hunger. I see Greeks on TV and I don't see the same despair or hunger. Not even close "to the US Great Depression" but they seem to be going there.
I feel pretty much feel the same way. To be fair much of the misery has been brought on by the political class in Greece (although they were voted in by the average Greek citizen).

I see the anger Greek citizen without job, and they look way better off than millions of Syrian,Iraqi, Sudanese,Libyan, Nigerian.... flleeing ISIL, Boko Horum, and the Assad government, and life of rape, beheading, crucifixions, and if you are lucky just mere hunger.

I will say that Greeks have been good about accepting, feeding and sheltering refuges from the horror in the Middle East and Northern Africa.
These refugees are European problem not just a Greek so I hope Europe helps Greece absorb the cost of providing this assistance.
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Old 07-08-2015, 05:33 PM   #474
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No, that's what you do if you're an individual, not what you do as a country. If you're a country and you're in a deflationary spiral then 1) your amount of debt increases with deflation and 2) the more the government cuts back on spending confidence falls, people slow down spending, and deflation increases. It really is different, and that's just textbook macroeconomics.

Don't believe me? Here's some data (a bit dated, from 2009-2012) that shows the effect of austerity on growth (from Paul Krugman via the IMF; x-axis is a measure of austerity, y-axis is growth, more details at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ty-europe-2/):

I don't think too much can be made of this chart. It shows a weak relationship at best and one extreme outlier. Throw that out and I suspect that strong r-squared would be greatly diminished. In addition look at the countries in lower right quadrant. I would bet that austerity was not handed out at random, but rather in higher doses to the countries most requiring it. So it would be no surprise that countries given the greatest austerity would do worse, likely they were the worst. So it could be that all this chart shows is that austerity was metered out to the countries that needed it the most. And that Greece among all the countries, chose not to participate in its own recovery.
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Old 07-08-2015, 07:05 PM   #475
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+1

Krugman is obviously a smart guy, but I find he tends to explain things in a way that fits his predetermined viewpoint. Everybody does that to some degree or from time-to-time, but you really need to watch for it in Krugman's comments.

-ERD50
Everybody? some degree? from time-to-time?--What did you do with the real ERD50?
(And you did it all in a single sentence).
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Old 07-08-2015, 07:18 PM   #476
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Everybody? some degree? from time-to-time?--What did you do with the real ERD50?
(And you did it all a single sentence).


Yes, I almost always ( ) stay away from absolutes, and I did pause over that 'everybody' as I typed it, but I figured that 'from time to time', and 'some degree' was enough softening.

But if it makes you feel better - ' Most people do that to some degree or from time-to-time, ' - feel better? Or did I miss the intent of your post?

-ERD50
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Old 07-08-2015, 07:30 PM   #477
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I wouldn't believe any Krugman theory if it told me the sun would rise tomorrow. He is so "beside himself" and pompous in the way he reacts to people who give an opposing view.
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Old 07-08-2015, 07:32 PM   #478
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I wouldn't believe any Krugman theory if it told me the sun would rise tomorrow. He is so "beside himself" and pompous in the way he reacts to people who give an opposing view.
+1
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Old 07-08-2015, 07:49 PM   #479
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Yes, I almost always ( ) stay away from absolutes, and I did pause over that 'everybody' as I typed it, but I figured that 'from time to time', and 'some degree' was enough softening.

But if it makes you feel better - ' Most people do that to some degree or from time-to-time, ' - feel better? Or did I miss the intent of your post?

-ERD50
I was worried that perhaps an alien creature inhabited your soul before being fully prepped regarding your fetish for absolutes. Sounds like this might show up in Al's next novel.

To answer your question: Yes, I do feel better now. Thank you for asking.
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Old 07-08-2015, 08:17 PM   #480
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It has been 5 years, two loan extensions, etc.. Greeks brought this on themselves and it's their problem to solve. What have they done to fight their way out of the situation? Not enough, apparently. Oh, yeah. They voted not to accept more belt tightening.

There are literally nations with people dying from hunger. I see Greeks on TV and I don't see the same despair or hunger. Not even close "to the US Great Depression" but they seem to be going there.
Greek austerity sparks sharp rise in suicides
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