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Old 07-09-2015, 08:08 PM   #501
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
I wonder, too, how they will payback the ever increasing debt. A year from now, the Greeks will be right back at where they are now (or even worse) unless they change their ways drastically.
As long as the Greek people and Greek government are fixated on the EU as their "oppressors" and also their possible salvation, they will not be focussed on their real underlying problem--and it won't get fixed.

When a person nags a spouse to lose weight, it breeds resentment. Every serving of cake that is skipped is cause to curse the nagger and try to cheat. "Who is (he/she) to boss me around! Go to h*ll!" When the couple finally breaks up, the fat spouse is back on the market, sees how things are, and goes on a diet. They are honestly motivated to lose the weight, and the weight comes off.

The EU needs to let Greece find its way. Are they responsible to fix her?
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Old 07-09-2015, 08:20 PM   #502
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The above posts are just what I need: an introduction to a 1969 song by Santana that I am going to post. We need an interlude in this long thread, oui?

"Evil Ways"

You've got to change your evil ways... baby
Before I stop loving you.
You've got to change... baby
And every word that I say is true.
You've got me running and hiding
All over town.
You've got me sneaking and peeping
And running you down
This can't go on...
Lord knows you got to change... baby.

When I come home... baby
My house is dark and my pots are cold
You hang around... baby
With Jean and Joan and a who knows who
I'm getting tired of waiting and fooling around
I'll find somebody, who won't make me feel like a clown
This can't go on...
Lord knows you got to change


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Old 07-09-2015, 09:04 PM   #503
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OK, perhaps we jumped too quickly to conclusion. The Bloomberg article has this paragraph.

The Greek government said it would use the three-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism to cover debt repayments between 2015 and 2018, mostly to the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. It will then be left with debt owed only to European Union institutions.

They are refinancing the loans. Perhaps there's no new debt.
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Old 07-10-2015, 10:24 AM   #504
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Here is one very current traveler's report of his experience in Greece during the current difficulties:
Quote:
We've been here all week with no issues. In fact mass transit has been free. Buses, trains and metro cost within the city costs nothing. Not sure how long it will last but it's a very nice bonus. No issues getting money or using credit cards either. Although, any food establishment won't take cards, but then they never have. People are as nice as ever.

There are more people at ATMs than usual but nothing aweful. The most I've seen is 10 people in line at the mall. Yes, they are still spending money. Greek credit and debit cards are accepted so they can still pay bills too. Others are doing some bartering. We got euros before we got here but at the airport they were offering special deals for US dollars. I don't know what the deal was since we already had euros. It's as wonderful as ever here so everyone should come, spend money and help their economy!!
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Old 07-10-2015, 11:12 AM   #505
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Here's a copy of the Greek proposal, courtesy of the FT. I believe FT blogs are not behind a paywall http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/fil...-July-2015.pdf

A snippet of the FT commentary http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/201...form-proposal/

Quote:
But on the big things – implementing measures to raise the effective retirement age to 67 by 2022 and phasing out a “solidarity grant” to poorer pensioners by December 2019 – Athens appears to have conceded.

The problem with this assessment, of course, is it measures a new proposal against an offer made for a bailout that does not exist any more. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has made clear that what’s required under a new multiyear bailout – which could cost more than €70bn – is much different than a reform plan needed to release just one €7.2bn aid tranche. More needs to be done, she argued.
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Old 07-10-2015, 05:09 PM   #506
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Greek bonds liked the news today ... a lot. Here is the 1yr chart for the 10yr bonds:

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Old 07-10-2015, 06:45 PM   #507
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The latest proposal includes a nominal tax increase. Several posts here by folks who have been there say tax evasion is rampant. If that doesn't change , what good is a tax increase ?
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Old 07-10-2015, 07:17 PM   #508
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"And if you missed any of the Greek crisis, it will be repeated in a few months' time."
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Old 07-10-2015, 07:24 PM   #509
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The latest proposal includes a nominal tax increase. Several posts here by folks who have been there say tax evasion is rampant. If that doesn't change , what good is a tax increase ?
At this point, any agreement to reforms by the Greek side should be worth very little. There's no mystery about the Greek government's preferred policies and what they have told their citizens, and they are exactly the opposite of reform. So, any entity that loans significant funds (again) or eases loan repayment terms (again) before changes are actually made--is just not interested in really helping Greece.

Europe should be "from Missouri" : "Show me"
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Old 07-10-2015, 07:39 PM   #510
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OK, perhaps we jumped too quickly to conclusion. The Bloomberg article has this paragraph.

The Greek government said it would use the three-year loan from the European Stability Mechanism to cover debt repayments between 2015 and 2018, mostly to the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. It will then be left with debt owed only to European Union institutions.

They are refinancing the loans. Perhaps there's no new debt.
On rethinking about this, if the money is for loan refinancing, how does it help Greece cash crunch right now? An analogy can be made to a homeowner refinancing his mortgage: if you do not have any equity and in arrears, how is the bank going to let you get some cash out with the refinancing?
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Old 07-10-2015, 07:58 PM   #511
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Here's a copy of the Greek proposal, courtesy of the FT. I believe FT blogs are not behind a paywall http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/fil...-July-2015.pdf

A snippet of the FT commentary Leaked: Greece’s new economic reform proposal | Brussels blog

Will read these later.... but your quote gives me some thought that I had not had (or read) before.... that Greece is seeking MORE money than the $7.5 from the last program... they are already negotiating the next one....


We all knew that there would be another... but since the last one ended and they have a lot of payments coming due the timeline got pushed up quickly....


The big problem is that even if they agree to fund the pmts for the next three years... it STILL does not solve the Greek problem... just another kick of the can down the road...

Grexit is the only true fix... but I think that is a much tougher road for them...
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Old 07-10-2015, 08:26 PM   #512
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We all knew that there would be another... but since the last one ended and they have a lot of payments coming due the timeline got pushed up quickly....
The scope of the present bailout being discussed is a LOT larger than the proposal that was previously on the table--they are talking about 8-10 times as much.

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Grexit is the only true fix... but I think that is a much tougher road for them...
Yes, the best the creditors can or should do is to offer some transition assistance for a short time while Greek sets up the drachma--to keep medicines in the pharmacies and food on the shelves for a few months. The sooner the EU stops dictating conditions and lets the market call the tune, the sooner there will be some real reform and hope of economic prosperity--done for the right reasons. Not because "they made us do it" but because "inflation is at 75% per year and no one will lend us money--we are a mess."
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Old 07-10-2015, 10:46 PM   #513
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I was reading on my tablet an article saying that no matter what agreement is reached that Greece will not do what they say they will do to get the money...

They said that the lenders should make them implement as much of the program as possible before getting any new money.... maybe get a bit to pay a payment or two, but no new money to pay the bills....


It seems that Greece passed it in parliament... by a wide margin... so the Sunday vote meant nothing.... as I said before, a gambit that lost...

Greek lawmakers back bailout reform plan
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Old 07-11-2015, 08:12 AM   #514
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Could I shift gears for a sec?

Since January, pundits (yes, I know...) have been hinting at a market pull back around September or so.

Would one consider the recent Greek issue and related US market retraction "the" cooling off or could we expect an additional pull back later in the year on top of the Greek situation? (again, yes I know, 'nobody knows')

My thinking is that a cooling off can take place for any number of reasons, so it doesn't matter if it was Greece or just an oversold market.
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Old 07-11-2015, 01:29 PM   #515
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Greece's GDP would place it 25th amongst states in the US, just behind Louisiana. Prior to their recession, they would've ranked 15th just behind Washington. Reality is that Greece's economic impact on the world markets is small. That does not, however, guarantee that market reaction to whatever happens with Greece will be similarly and appropriately unremarkable. Indeed, any reaction will likely be an overreaction, the question is: how much?

Personally, insolvency in the state of Louisiana would not trigger me doing anything with my asset allocation nor my portfolio in the short or long term, and I will treat Greece that way. At this point, the Greek crisis is more interesting than it is impactful to my personal financial situation, in my opinion.

In far fewer words: nothing to see here. Any pullback that happens is unlikely to be related to Greece and more likely to be regression due to perceptions of an inflated market.
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Old 07-11-2015, 01:51 PM   #516
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.... or could we expect an additional pull back later in the year on top of the Greek situation? (again, yes I know, 'nobody knows') ...
If an additional pull back is 'expected', then it is already reflected in the market, and there's nothing you can do at this point. Especially if it is 'known'.

Check the price of puts to get some idea on how much a pull back is expected.


Consider when something is known - it does you no good at all. I recall a company was going to be bought out, stock was at ~ $26, the buyout was to occur 3 months later (I forget the details on timing, but close enough), and it would be bought at $30/sh. The 'street' was confident the sale would go through, no major FTC issues and the buying company had the resources, it was as near a done deal as you could get.

This was announced at market close on Friday. Perfect, you now see a $26 stock that you know will be at $30 in three months! Except, it does you no good. The next trade on that stock took place at $30 minus the return on risk-free money for three months. No big deal. It was expected.


-ERD50
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Old 07-11-2015, 04:00 PM   #517
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"And if you missed any of the Greek crisis, it will be repeated in a few months' time."
+1, if they get yet another bailout, and I have my doubts, this will undoubtedly happen
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Old 07-11-2015, 04:06 PM   #518
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^ I should acknowledge that the above cartoon was blatantly stolen (by moi) from the British Telegraph.
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Old 07-11-2015, 04:13 PM   #519
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If an additional pull back is 'expected', then it is already reflected in the market, and there's nothing you can do at this point. Especially if it is 'known'.

Check the price of puts to get some idea on how much a pull back is expected.

Consider when something is known - it does you no good at all. I recall a company was going to be bought out, stock was at ~ $26, the buyout was to occur 3 months later (I forget the details on timing, but close enough), and it would be bought at $30/sh. The 'street' was confident the sale would go through, no major FTC issues and the buying company had the resources, it was as near a done deal as you could get.

This was announced at market close on Friday. Perfect, you now see a $26 stock that you know will be at $30 in three months! Except, it does you no good. The next trade on that stock took place at $30 minus the return on risk-free money for three months. No big deal. It was expected.
+1

Need insider info.
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Old 07-11-2015, 05:28 PM   #520
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+1

Need insider info.
No you don't. You just need to be big enough to generate your own earthquake.

The guys battling long and short on Herbalife did it. Icahn does it.
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