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Old 06-28-2015, 07:33 PM   #81
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$14.4 Billion in Hedge funds poses the first real test of liquidity and resolution at this level.

There's panic among hedge fund investors in Greece | afr.com

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But the question of what happens when the markets do open is particularly acute for the hedge fund investors - including luminaries like David Einhorn and John Paulson - who have collectively poured more than €10 billion ($14.4 billion) into Greek government bonds, bank stocks and other investments.

Through the weekend, Nicholas Papapolitis, a corporate lawyer here, was working around the clock comforting and cajoling his frantic hedge fund clients.

"People are freaking out," said the 32-year-old Papapolitis, his eyes red and his voice hoarse. "They have made some really big bets on Greece."

But there is no getting around the truth of the matter, he said. Without a deal with its European creditors, the country will default and Greek stocks and bonds will tank when the markets open.
Actually more than $30B... Big gains on the way up... margins and liquidity will separate the winners and the losers. A rocky road ahead. Some won't sleep well tonight.
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Old 06-28-2015, 07:40 PM   #82
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If I had to negotiate with Tsipras, I would probably fall on a knife and get it over with to put me out of my misery. Reminds me of my neighbor who blamed the bank for giving him a loan he couldn't pay.

Even though his party won a majority, not every Greek is in love with this guy. One of our cab drivers gave us a monologue on him, calling him a crazy communist.

Of course when our ride was done, our cabbie asked for cash only, please.
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Old 06-28-2015, 07:55 PM   #83
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Wonder if George Soros is going to be shinny side up. Haven't herd anything , but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have big positions involved.
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Old 06-28-2015, 08:12 PM   #84
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Maybe it's just me but I am so tired of the Greece delay thing. Do what you are going to do, let's let the markets react and move on.

BTW Greece, LBYM.
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Old 06-28-2015, 08:26 PM   #85
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I find it interesting to read that the Greek finance minister was talking about how the Euro Zone is not allowing the democratic process to work by letting them have a vote on the matter....

Well, maybe if you had not let it get to the very last days to call such a vote you would have more time...


I wish I had kept a chart that I saw today... it was a view that told everything in one chart... the guy showed the Greek economy had dropped the last few years.... and big time... but the chart also showed the long term Greek economy and it was getting down to it long run growth... IOW, they had a big bubble these last few years and it burst... now they are back to where they should be....

Nope, I do not have any sympathy for the Greeks.... maybe for the ones who will be hit the hardest by this and had no clue... but that would be a small minority...
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Old 06-28-2015, 08:34 PM   #86
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I agree with the last two posters. This has been decades in the making. Tax avoidance and corruption is endemic in Greece. Tsipras is trying to bully the EU and IMF into prolonging the agony by pouring money into a bottomless pit. Time to stop enabling Greece.
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:39 PM   #87
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I haven't heard this about Greece. I'd be curious to know where you read this if you remember?
OK... did a search and found a few articles about the possibility of Greece leaving the EU... these were not the site I read it the first time, but do not remember where it was....

Greece could exit eurozone and EU, Greek central bank warns - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Its central bank has warned for the first time the country could crash out of the eurozone, and even the European Union, if it fails to achieve a result.
In a stark warning, the Bank of Greece said: "Failure to reach an agreement would ... mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country's exit from the euro area and most likely from the European Union".

Greece likely to exit euro and EU without deal with creditors ? central bank ? RT Business
Athens is likely to leave the eurozone and the EU if it fails to reach an agreement to unlock a 7.2 billion bailout installment, said a statement from the Bank of Greece.
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:42 PM   #88
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Is Greece just the 'canary in the mine'? I recall hearing about the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain). So is the market responding not just to the relatively small Greek economy, but to the sum of the PIGS?

-ERD50
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:47 PM   #89
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Is Greece just the 'canary in the mine'? I recall hearing about the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain). So is the market responding not just to the relatively small Greek economy, but to the sum of the PIGS?

-ERD50
IMO, they are not going to let Greece off the hook to keep the others in line.. they do not seem as bad, so just let Greece go to save the others...

If they do another haircut on Greek debt, they will be expecting their turn...

Reading a bit more.... the Greeks got a 107 billion euro debt relief at the beginning of their crisis... and now a few years later want more...
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Old 06-29-2015, 12:22 AM   #90
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I wish I had kept a chart that I saw today... it was a view that told everything in one chart... the guy showed the Greek economy had dropped the last few years.... and big time... but the chart also showed the long term Greek economy and it was getting down to it long run growth... IOW, they had a big bubble these last few years and it burst... now they are back to where they should be....
The chart and article were on Vox
This chart explains why Greece and Europe can't agree - Vox
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Old 06-29-2015, 12:43 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Is Greece just the 'canary in the mine'? I recall hearing about the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain). So is the market responding not just to the relatively small Greek economy, but to the sum of the PIGS?

-ERD50
Actually it is the PIIGS(Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Ireland has already taken its medicine and is well on the way to recovery so I doubt they will be too sympathetic towards Greece.


Ireland eyes lower deficit, quashes EU bank debt deal | Reuters


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Noonan said on Tuesday that far fewer spending cuts and tax hikes would be needed in the last in a long line of austerity budgets next month after the government collected 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) or over 4 percent more tax than expected in the first eight months of the year.
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Old 06-29-2015, 05:03 AM   #92
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The bank shutdown is supposed to last 6 days, with a withdrawal limit at atm's until the bank's re-open.

Could the Greek banks actually run out of paper currency if the run on the banks continue when they re-open ?

Does the European central bank supply all the paper currency , or do the countries print their own euro's ?
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:29 AM   #93
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And, Puerto Rico slides in under the Greek News Barrage:

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Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/bu...t-payable.html No surprise, but they do have a ton of municipal bonds outstanding in the US.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:31 AM   #94
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I agree with the last two posters. This has been decades in the making. Tax avoidance and corruption is endemic in Greece. Tsipras is trying to bully the EU and IMF into prolonging the agony by pouring money into a bottomless pit. Time to stop enabling Greece.
If this is true (and I have no doubt you are correct), Greece should never have been admitted to the EMU. The "problem" is one decade and a half in the making, and the EU leadership must now share the responsibility.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:46 AM   #95
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If this is true (and I have no doubt you are correct), Greece should never have been admitted to the EMU. The "problem" is one decade and a half in the making, and the EU leadership must now share the responsibility.
That's true too.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:06 AM   #96
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....Oh and this, Dow futures off by over 320 points, S&P by 40 points, NASDAQ by over 70 points Sunday evening.
Should be an "interesting" day.... NIKKEI 225 and Hang Seng were off 2.88% and 2.61%, FTSE, DAX and CAC were off 1.43%, 2.5% and 2.93%.

And U.S. market futures are off a tad over 1% but not quite as bad as when explanade posted the above.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:36 AM   #97
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The problem here is even if a deal is reached, the greek drama will resurface on an ongoing basis until greece decides to address its structural problems, which they do not show any desire to do. Let the monkeys default, so everyone can move on. I suspect that enough measures have been put in place, so that a default will not have the catastrophe and contagion that would have existed a few years ago in the other pigs.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:43 AM   #98
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Actually it is the PIIGS(Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Ireland has already taken its medicine and is well on the way to recovery so I doubt they will be too sympathetic towards Greece.
]
Glad you brought up Ireland. At least they are trying to do something with their economy. The thing that struck me when over there was the waste of their highly educated youth. They all speak perfect English (required second language in school) and most go to college. Greece could play a part of the high tech world much like Ireland has been able to do.

But they do not. I don't know all the complexities of why this is so.

But here's an irony. Our tour leader's two kids both moved out of the country for work. One of them went to Ireland for work. piigs or not, the opportunity was better there.

There is also a lack of multi-national investment, for whatever reason, although I understand the USA loves Greek made razor blades.

But there has to be more than olives and razor blades. Those young smart minds are just being wasted.

Final thought: we speak of LYBM and frugal living. I have to admit that watching the easygoing live-life-to-the-max attitude while there was a bit infectious. I could see it could become habit blowing money on late night dinners and bar hopping. Everyone seemed to do it.
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Old 06-29-2015, 09:05 AM   #99
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Cramer brought up an interesting angle.

If Russia and China bring economic aid to Greece, as they are doing in Venezuela, Greece may leave NATO, which sounds unthinkable but Russia is preoccupied about NATO encroaching on its sphere of influence so getting Greece to leave NATO would be big.

Then does Merkel want to be known as the German chancellor who lost Greece out of NATO?
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Old 06-29-2015, 09:20 AM   #100
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Cramer brought up an interesting angle.

If Russia and China bring economic aid to Greece, as they are doing in Venezuela, Greece may leave NATO, which sounds unthinkable but Russia is preoccupied about NATO encroaching on its sphere of influence so getting Greece to leave NATO would be big.

Then does Merkel want to be known as the German chancellor who lost Greece out of NATO?
Russia and China have economic interests in Venezuela but it is certainly not aid and the primary beneficiaries are to be found in Russia and China. It's not clear how well informed Cramer is on this.
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