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Old 06-29-2015, 04:08 PM   #141
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Definitely a coming buying opportunity in the making.
As I still have some cash (25.295% as of this writing, and increasing ), yes I will have opportunities to buy.

However, as greedy as I am, I will still say "Look what more I could buy if I sold high to raise even more cash".

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Defiant Greeks rally behind rejection of creditor terms

Many banners declared simply "No!" Others said, "Our lives do not belong to the lenders" and "Don't back down".

"I left Greece two years ago because I couldn't get a job," said Thanos Tsapelis, 37 and newly married on Sunday to Eleni, a teacher at a Greek school in Britain. "We want austerity to end so we can return to Greece and find a job."
So, they reject the terms for more money. Fine. Go pick more money off trees, or beg another country, if they can.

What is interesting is that it seems people think that jobs can only be created by their gummint letting loose the faucet. Aren't there jobs in the private sector? Do the Greeks already have everything they need and do not have to grow, raise, or build anything?

It's amazing how once people become so reliant on the government, they no longer think anything is possible without public assistance.

PS. In the market downturn of 2008-2009, there was a poster who included a with every post of his. He has not been posting for the last few years (but I do not think it was because of financial hardship).
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:19 PM   #142
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None come to mind. I imagine they would have to revert to the drachma and deal with a plunging currency for a while.
Greece leaving the Euro certainly would help ensure some of the needed reforms are carried out or the value of labor falls accordingly.

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As I still have some cash (25.295% as of this writing, and increasing ), yes I will have opportunities to buy.
European equities may start to look good again. The question is, hedged or unhedged? If Greece stays with the Euro it will continue to weaken. If Greece leaves, the Euro should strengthen. Which will it be?

No matter what the outcome, the Greek people have already lost, and they will suffer badly.
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:37 PM   #143
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I have not followed European stocks in the last month or so, but they had not been doing too bad. The problem is although the stocks rose, the price increase was cancelled out by the Euro drop when converted into US$.

Anyway, I may not be necessarily buying European stocks. I am hoping for stock sales world-wide.
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:56 PM   #144
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Actually it is the PIIGS(Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Ireland has already taken its medicine and is well on the way to recovery so I doubt they will be too sympathetic towards Greece.


Ireland eyes lower deficit, quashes EU bank debt deal | Reuters
Great article on how Ireland lowered their deficit. Maybe Greece and the PIIGS could look to them for some insights?

I look forward to contributing to the Irish economy during a 10-day visit in August. How nice to enjoy a country that has tried to take responsibility for its own welfare. Sounds like my group will need to spend some extra time in the pubs and buy a few more souvenirs!
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Old 06-29-2015, 05:23 PM   #145
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Great article on how Ireland lowered their deficit. Maybe Greece and the PIIGS could look to them for some insights?

I look forward to contributing to the Irish economy during a 10-day visit in August. How nice to enjoy a country that has tried to take responsibility for its own welfare. Sounds like my group will need to spend some extra time in the pubs and buy a few more souvenirs!
But isn't a good part of the Irish success story that they had a favorable corporate income tax rate, and as such, have a fairly large amount of corporate headquarters there? Can't really duplicate that benefit with PIGS...
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Old 06-29-2015, 05:43 PM   #146
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Well, my limited knowledge on the subject is showing........

Are you saying that favorable corporate income taxes could not happen with the PIIGS because..... a) the governments refuse to provide them; b) these nations have so few profitable corporations to tax; or c) both?

Or, what might be option "d"?


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Old 06-29-2015, 05:53 PM   #147
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Ireland has had low corporate taxes for over 30 years. They were key to building the economy, including attracting the large number of multinational companies that have European headquarters there. Of course, recently this has come under fire because companies like Apple (legally) avoid a lot of taxes by being based in Ireland.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corp...lic_of_Ireland

"This period from c.1956 to c.1975, is probably the most influential on the evolution of the Irish corporate taxation system, and marked the development of an 'Irish' system, rather than continuing with a British model.

This period saw the creation of Corporation Tax, which combined the Capital Gains, Income and Corporation Profits Tax that firms previously had to pay. Future changes to the corporate tax system, such as the measures implemented by various governments over the last twenty years can be seen as a continuation of the policies of this period. The introduction in 1981 of the 10% tax on manufacturing was simply the easiest way to adjust to the demands of the EEC to abolish the export relief, which the EEC viewed as discriminatory. With the accession to the EEC, the advantages of this policy became increasingly obvious to both the Irish government and to foreign multi-nationals; by 1982 over 80% of companies who located in Ireland cited the taxation policy as the primary reason they did so.

Corporation tax was reduced to 12.5% on trading income,[citation needed]. This is generally believed to have been an important stimulus for the Celtic Tiger."
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Old 06-29-2015, 06:20 PM   #148
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Definitely a coming buying opportunity in the making.
... add the possibility of Iran's restrictions being lifted, might be a double whammy.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:15 PM   #149
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... add the possibility of Iran's restrictions being lifted, might be a double whammy.
Yes, but that extra crude on the open market (less than 1 MM BBL/Day) won't make much of a dent in the futures price and only affect Brent I believe. There may be an over reaction though.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:42 PM   #150
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Yes, but that extra crude on the open market (less than 1 MM BBL/Day) won't make much of a dent in the futures price and only affect Brent I believe. There may be an over reaction though.
IF it happens, that is.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:46 PM   #151
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They should be allowed to default and go their own way. If they do it right, they could follow Iceland's path.

+many

The EU needs to figure out how to let members not be part of the Eurozone. If they did this years ago, Greece would probably be better off today.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:50 PM   #152
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IF it happens, that is.
Yes, IF.....
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:54 PM   #153
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+many

The EU needs to figure out how to let members not be part of the Eurozone. If they did this years ago, Greece would probably be better off today.
Ah, but likely the Germans would not. There is the rub. Germany wants to have its economic cake and eat it too. So either write the checks to subsidize disorganized ratholes like Greece, or accept the lower economic growth you would otherwise have. TANSTAAFL.
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Old 06-29-2015, 07:57 PM   #154
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Ah, but likely the Germans would not. There is the rub. Germany wants to have its economic cake and eat it too. So either write the checks to subsidize disorganized ratholes like Greece, or accept the lower economic growth you would otherwise have. TANSTAAFL.
Can you expand on that? What does Germany gain from Greece?

I'm bad at macro-economics

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Old 06-29-2015, 07:58 PM   #155
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German companies export a lot to Southern Europe.

The SIEMENS scandal may finally reach court after 17 years of investigation – The history of the scandal goes back to the 1990s | Apokoronas News
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:18 PM   #156
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Ah, but likely the Germans would not. There is the rub. Germany wants to have its economic cake and eat it too. So either write the checks to subsidize disorganized ratholes like Greece, or accept the lower economic growth you would otherwise have. TANSTAAFL.
Is this like the Chinese selling "stuff" to us, then take our bonds as payment?

Anyway, to understand the frustration of the average Greek, one needs to see some numbers. The average Greek pension used to be 1350 euros in 2009, and has been cut to 833 euros. Nearly 1/2 of the pensioners now get only 665 euros, and some say lenders want it cut down to 500 euros. Many of the pensioners now have to support their unemployed adult children on that pitiful amount.

At this point, Greek pensions are no longer that generous, but they still add up to a larger percentage of their GDP because the GDP has shrunk. You've got debt, but have no job to work for money to pay the debt. They are in a death spiral, and just don't know how to get out of it.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:22 PM   #157
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And the Greeks' reluctance to sign on for more of the bitter medicine is being portrayed as wanting to live high on the hog on German money.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:34 PM   #158
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But, but, but, how can beggars be choosy? Man, I hate to be in their position, to be down on your knees, desperate and have no way to turn. Maybe that will be a lesson to other people who think one can enjoy the good life without having to work. Ugh! Wrong thing for an ER to say. (But remember, I have that RV as housing of last resort).

Come to think of it, Greek demographics do not help, as they have more older people. You would think that the fewer young people would find job a plenty, but they don't. Economics is weird! They need a lot of things, yet there are young idle people not having anything to do.

Economic policies in the past have caught up with them. Bad, bad collective karma, as some say.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:43 PM   #159
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Can you expand on that? What does Germany gain from Greece?

I'm bad at macro-economics

-ERD50
Basically the Germans save too much, are too productive and have historically had policies that tend to make their currency a lot stronger than most of their trading partners. As a result they have a structural growth deficit as their currency tends to appreciate vs. trading partners over time. They got around this by absorbing Eastern Germany, but once that boost went away they were left hanging. Enter the Euro. It allowed them to export some of their currency hardness and get higher economic growth. The problem is that the weaker currencies that were absorbed needed to steadily weaken in order to mop up certain economic inefficiencies/structural problems that tended to crop up in these economies. Without the ability to depreciate their currency, these weaker sisters ended up building up pressures against their economies. In the case of Greece, they passed around the ouzo and cooked the books to keep the party going. Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal eventually took their medicine.

If the Euro goes away and the Deutschmark comes back, German economic growth will get pinched big time.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:46 PM   #160
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When I was first in Greece, (and Spain, Portugal, etc, etc), 50 plus years ago, there were small fishing villages, local industries, family farms, etc........now it appears that so much of their income is attributed to tourism.......what happens when the tourists can't afford, (or are afraid) to go?

(A friend of mine, whose travel checklist equals or exceeds mine, told me today, with the Tunisian shootings being the catalyst, that he's just not interested anymore and will restrict future trips to Aust/NZ or Maui.)
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