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Old 11-05-2015, 02:00 AM   #1
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Mary Jane

With the pot legalization movement seeming get traction, would that have any substitution effect for consumers against pot or tobacco, long term? Big tobacco i think would jump in the game, so i am more interested how it would affect alcohol sales.

Or, maybe i should be focusing on snacks. Never used myself.


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Old 11-05-2015, 06:58 AM   #2
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OH just rejected it, so it may be a while. But...

Pot legalization would be a boon for many things. Tax collections would be one. Medical de-tox centers another. Even lawyers who defend people when they get into a traffic accident. Prisons would have more space for the real criminals.

I can see ice cream type trucks selling whatever drugs were legal. Just drive around and ring the bell in neighborhoods where drug use is prevalent today. Of course under-age kids would also get the drugs, as they do today, but it would just be much more acceptable. Companies that franchise these operations would have great potential.

It would also open the possibility to have other drugs and victim-less crimes to be made legal or decriminalized. Other drugs such as Meth, heroin, cocaine and would have the same arguments to become legal as Pot. Truck drivers could snort a line of coke to keep them from falling asleep on the road. A quick line after lunch would make the afternoon meetings a bit less drowzy.

Gambling and Prostitution (above the age of consent), which are also victim-less crimes would be next. Off course, they would be taxed. You can pass out condoms in high-school, but somehow its illegal for a person to charge to use them? You can offer money to someone to clean your house or mow your lawn, but offering them money for sex is somehow wrong? You can pay for dinner, rent, or a car and get sex, but if you skip the gifts and just offer the same money, it's illegal? Another great opportunity for some company.

If the Pot legal age was 18, the alcohol age would also follow suit soon, and would be a great boon to our country. Why not let marginal people have the chance to self-destruct? It would allow the self-achievers to move faster to the top.

It would be a great world if we could just keep the feral people on some sort of drug, it would lead to less problem for the rest of us.
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Old 11-05-2015, 07:30 AM   #3
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OH just rejected it, so it may be a while. But...
I think it is a reach to cite Ohio as a harbinger. The legalization in Ohio was tied to the constitutional creation of an oligarchy of pot barons who would get all of the cannabis in the state. This infuriated many legalization advocates and resulted in a companion initiative that prohibited any initiatives that would enshrine such monopolies in the constitution - that initiative passed with a 65% majority. Lets see if another, more tolerable initiative goes on the ballot in 2016 or later.

Edit: I see this thread heading down the tubes shortly so lets get it on track for ER relevance. Many of the comparisons to alcohol and narcotics are either completely off or overstated. Cannabis is rapidly being shown to have many beneficial effects that will interest old, achy farts like us. And reassuringly, the side effects, while real are turning out to be relatively mild. As to substitution effects (OP), states with legal widely open MMJ have consistently shown significant reductions in opioid overdoses compared to states with prohibition in place.
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Old 11-05-2015, 09:23 AM   #4
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Substitute for opiods, thats surprised me. Not really a straight bet to make their. I'm not shorting codine factories.


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Old 11-05-2015, 09:34 AM   #5
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Substitute for opiods, thats surprised me. Not really a straight bet to make their. I'm not shorting codine factories.


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Actually, MMJ is regularly cited as useful for chronic pain management. JAMA reported a 30% improvement in pain control versus placebo. Stats for locations with MMJ dispensaries show similar reductions in overdoses and rehab admissions. I assume those are relative increases/decreases so not earth shaking. But lesser benefits fuel a multi-billion dollar statin market so why not MMJ?
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Old 11-05-2015, 09:37 AM   #6
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I can see ice cream type trucks selling whatever drugs were legal. Just drive around and ring the bell in neighborhoods where drug use is prevalent today. Of course under-age kids would also get the drugs, as they do today, but it would just be much more acceptable. Companies that franchise these operations would have great potential.
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Old 11-05-2015, 03:48 PM   #7
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From an investment perspective, I wonder if a detailed analysis of the winners and losers in states that have legalized would give one a hint of where to invest on the chance that it goes nationwide. The old mining gold vs Levi's thing. But even an established national enterprise that was positioned to cash-in might get out-maneuvered by a start-up nowadays. I think I'll stick to VOO.
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Old 11-05-2015, 05:57 PM   #8
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Try reading The Last Bookstore in America for one fictional take on winners and losers when ganja becomes legal across the US.
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Old 11-07-2015, 05:32 AM   #9
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Medical de-tox center---Why? Somebody needs an education.
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Old 11-07-2015, 09:21 AM   #10
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Edit: I see this thread heading down the tubes shortly so lets get it on track for ER relevance.
Don't worry, I'm not getting involved. You should be safe.
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Old 11-09-2015, 06:05 AM   #11
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We legalized it here but I don't think it did anything, they allow some growing and selling but nobody is buying. Street sales are way cheaper but making it legal if caught with a little you can claim you bought it legally. I tried it once in the early 70s and wasn't impressed enough to try it again and don't even understand the measurements they use or what it should cost.

I was thinking of buying stock in FritoLay but don't think legal helped at all in snack sales either. It might get some children to try it since they could buy a brownie but they aren't old enough. I am afraid the vape pens are going to entice children with tobacco.
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Old 11-09-2015, 06:23 AM   #12
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If someone was thinking about a Pot resort that was talked about, it's on hold, for now...

Quote:
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. -- The Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribe is temporarily suspending its marijuana cultivation and distributing facilities and is destroying its existing crop as leaders seek clarification on regulations from the federal government, according to the tribe's lawyer.
Flandreau Sioux put marijuana resort on hold
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