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View Poll Results: How will the Market respond to Obama on 2/24/2009
The market will like what he says and rise. 2 4.88%
The market will be indifferent, little/no change. 6 14.63%
The market will be disappointed by what he says, and drop. 29 70.73%
The market may change or not, but it will be unrelated to what President Obama has to say. 4 9.76%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-25-2009, 11:59 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
The day isn't over yet. The magic eight ball predicts a positive close.
Hope you are right. I put in a limit order on an OTM CC on SPY. $0.74 on the March SPY 84s. SPY will probably need to hit $77.50 for that to hit.

If I get it its like an added dividend on the S&P of just under 1%/month. At the risk of SPY closing over $84.74 on March 20, which would be a > 9.3% pop up. Which of course, could happen in this volatile market, or no one would offer 74 cents for that call. History tells me it is a pretty safe, fairly low return risk/reward.

-ERD50

PS - got them @ 3:05ET SPY went positive
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Old 02-25-2009, 02:11 PM   #42
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S&P is in the green right nowand Dow is down only $3 so likely to make it there too--2:10 pm CST--T-Al's prediction may come true

Ooops I jinxed it.... back down a little two minutes later.
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:05 PM   #43
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Close!...

But no cigar!

Man, I keep talking about Crystal Balls, should have been looking for a Magic-8 ball!

-ERD50
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:08 PM   #44
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Bonds yields screamed up today.

Wish that would show up in money market yields.

That was one bearish close for stoxs.
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:08 PM   #45
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We're back to one of those markets where selling pressure in the last five minutes are a killer...
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:10 PM   #46
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The market will be disappointed by what he says, and drop.- 71% picked this

Hey, I thought everyone being negative was a bullish indicator.
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Old 02-25-2009, 03:11 PM   #47
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We're back to one of those markets where selling pressure in the last five minutes are a killer...
Magic mountained:

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Old 02-25-2009, 03:40 PM   #48
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Hey, I thought everyone being negative was a bullish indicator.
We are not "everyone", we must be the "smart ones"!

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Old 02-25-2009, 04:24 PM   #49
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My magic eight ball is running a little fast.
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Old 02-25-2009, 06:59 PM   #50
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After hearing his speech I wanted to switch my vote. While it is nice to be in the smart majority, I really wish that I was wrong.
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GW Bush approval rating higher than Obama?
Old 02-26-2009, 09:44 AM   #51
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GW Bush approval rating higher than Obama?

I mentioned earlier that I think Obama should be more aggressive in taking advantage of his high approval rating. Since I was following that, I came across this interesting & surprising little factoid:

Presidential Job Approval in Depth

Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval

------------------- Approve--Disapprove--No opinion

2001 Feb 19-21 62----------21-------------17 (Bush)
----------------- 61----------24-------------15 (Obama)


I'm sure it is too early to tie any real significance to this, but it is interesting to me that Bush's approval rating one month in was *higher* (and disapproval lower) than Obama's is one month in.

-ERD50
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Old 02-26-2009, 02:49 PM   #52
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It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.
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Old 02-26-2009, 02:53 PM   #53
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It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.
IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks. The talk of the last couple of days, while interesting and important, are only a diversion and a side-show to that main event.

Until the uncertainty surrounding the banks is resolved to the market's satisfaction, the water torture will likely continue. [Edit to add: And since announcements like this often come in the last hour of trading, I think part of the selloffs in the last hour are a result of realizing no details are coming today.]
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Old 02-26-2009, 02:56 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by youbet View Post
It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.
It might be time to study the charts, brush up on probability & statistics, and do some day trading around announcements from this admin?

May be the only way to make a buck these days.

-ERD50
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Old 02-26-2009, 03:01 PM   #55
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IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks. The talk of the last couple of days, while interesting and important, are only a diversion and a side-show to that main event.

Until the uncertainty surrounding the banks is resolved to the market's satisfaction, the water torture will likely continue.
That may be true. The problem for me is, I really don't understand the banking problems very well, so I'm not sure I would know if a plan was good or not (I use market response to judge that). Safe to say that JoeSixPack is probably less informed than even I am.

But still, I guess I hear the current 'plan' lacks details, so that plays into what you said - not so much a judgment of if it is a good/bad plan, but a detailed plan might be enough.


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Old 02-26-2009, 07:47 PM   #56
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IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks.
I agree that hearing how the admin is going to detox the banks is key. But I think there's something else too. People want to know why this is a good time to invest in a business, why a business you invest in today is going to improve its after tax profit performance so the investment turns out to be a good one. Frankly, given what I've heard from the admin this week, I'm not sure that even if I understood the process for detoxing the banks, I'd be pouring addtional youbet family funds into business(s). At least not until further details of federal budgets, tax policy and "change" manifest themselves and appear to be congruent with improving after tax profitability.
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Old 02-27-2009, 02:12 PM   #57
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It might be time to study the charts, brush up on probability & statistics, and do some day trading around announcements from this admin?

May be the only way to make a buck these days.
I don't know. Going short at 3:00 PM and covering at 3:59 seems like it would be pretty profitable, too.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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