Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-22-2011, 01:20 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
President Nixon hinted to the military leadership that he needed the 82nd Abn to come fix things for him in DC--he was told plainly that those in uniform were sworn to support and defend the Constitution, not his administration. The same thing would happen today.
Well, somehow the Ohio national Guard missed getting that message.
Quote:
The guardsmen fired 67 rounds over a period of 13 seconds, killing four students and wounding nine others, one of whom suffered permanent paralysis.[5]
.

Maybe to you this seems like an appropriate response to a peaceful student anti-war demonstration, but at the time it did not to me, and it still does not.

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-22-2011, 02:29 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Well, somehow the Ohio national Guard missed getting that message. .

Maybe to you this seems like an appropriate response to a peaceful student anti-war demonstration, but at the time it did not to me, and it still does not.

Ha
It seems to me the fact we all remember Kent State because of the horror of witness is pretty telling. The 60s saw thousand of protests by young people some as large as 100,000+ people, more or less using he same tactics as the kids in the Middle East were using. Meaning the protest looked pretty loud, nasty and scary for us at home. The national guard was called in many state, and yet the only case where the fired on the student protesters is Kent State. The thugs in Egypt killed a lot more than 4 Egyptians, and the soldier/mercenaries in Libya and Bahrain has been down right brutal.

Although I will say earlier in decade, the authorities response to protest by blacks was not nearly as peaceful. So I maybe premature in saying it couldn't happen here.
__________________

__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 03:27 PM   #23
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 401
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
We just need to drill our own damn oil instead of buying it from countries that support terrorism or harbor terrorists in return for the terrorist not blowing up their oil wells..........
Uh, yeah ... Let me guess. If only we could drill in ANWR, we'd have all the oil we need, and all our problems would be gone.
__________________
RustyShackleford is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 03:56 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyShackleford View Post
Uh, yeah ... Let me guess. If only we could drill in ANWR, we'd have all the oil we need, and all our problems would be gone.
Those that oppose oil from ANWR are just part of the 'Not in my backyard lobby'. Yet the NIMBY lobby are silent on taking oil from Nigeria. Read about Nigeria's and other places oil pollution.

The USA uses a lot of oil and has a responsibility to the environment. It also has some of the highest anti pollution regulations. So it makes sense for the USA to get it's oil from environmentally responsible countries first and not contributing to pollution in other parts of the world because of NIMBY.


As the price of oil rises and technological advances are made more oil will come from the USA.

Also see oil shale.

Oil sands - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oil sands now are the source of almost half of Canada's oil production, although due to the 2008 economic downturn work on new projects has been deferred, while Venezuelan production has been declining in recent years. Oil is not produced from oil sands on a significant level in other countries

USA

In the United States, oil sands resources are primarily concentrated in Eastern Utah. With a total of 32 billion barrels (5.110^9 m3) of oil(known and potential) in eight major deposits[28] in the Utah counties of Carbon, Garfield, Grand, Uintah and Wayne. Currently, oil is not produced from oil sands on a significant commercial level in the United States, although the U.S. imports twenty percent of its oil and refined products from Canada, and over fifty percent of Canadian oil production is from oil sands. In addition to being much smaller than the oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada, the U.S. oil sands are hydrocarbon wet, whereas the Canadian oil sands are water wet. As a result of this difference, extraction techniques for the Utah oil sands will be different than those used for the Alberta oil sands. A considerable amount of research has been done in the quest for commercially viable production technology to be employed in the development of the Utah oil sands. A special concern is the relatively arid climate of eastern Utah, as a large amount of water may be required by some processing techniques.[17] Section 526 of the Energy Independence And Security Act prohibits United States government agencies from buying oil produced by processes that produce more greenhouse gas emissions than would traditional petroleum including oil sands
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 04:23 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Well, somehow the Ohio national Guard missed getting that message. .

Maybe to you this seems like an appropriate response to a peaceful student anti-war demonstration, but at the time it did not to me, and it still does not.

Ha
What are you talking about? I said:
Quote:
Four people killed as the result of poor local crowd control decisions/discipline
Does that sound like I think the response was appropriate? It was a bad local response. It was not state or federal policy to shoot protesters. Does that sound like Libya?

Neil Young does songs, not accurate history.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 04:42 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
How do you think these events will change our world? Any of you shifting how you are investing or planning for the future? Any change in travel plans?
Quoting myself to try to get this thread back to the questions I asked in the OP. How do you believe what's happening will:

- Impact the world (going forward, not a commentary on mistakes made by the USA or other countries in the past);
- Alter your invesment strategy; and/or
- Change your future travel plans.

__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 04:58 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
[QUOTE=Purron;1040162]Quoting myself to try to get this thread back to the questions I asked in the OP. How do you believe what's happening will:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
- Impact the world (going forward, not a commentary on mistakes made by the USA or other countries in the past);
See my post above

Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
- Alter your invesment strategy; and/or
Commodities will do well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
- Change your future travel plans.

That area of the world will be great vacation spot for the frugal on this board.

I've been to Morocco & Egypt and don't have any interest in any other countries.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 04:59 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
Quoting myself to try to get this thread back to the questions I asked in the OP. How do you believe what's happening will:

- Impact the world (going forward, not a commentary on mistakes made by the USA or other countries in the past);
- Alter your invesment strategy; and/or
- Change your future travel plans.

I think, at a minimum, in five years few folks will be loudly proclaiming that democracy is the solution to the world's problems. A democracy without the protection of individual rights is a disaster.

In some of these new petri dishes in the Middle East, the results will be very vile. Some genuine liberal democracies will also result, and we should support 'em.

Investments? Oil is going up, and I don't think we've seen the end of that.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 05:15 PM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
Quoting myself to try to get this thread back to the questions I asked in the OP. How do you believe what's happening will:

- Impact the world (going forward, not a commentary on mistakes made by the USA or other countries in the past);
- Alter your invesment strategy; and/or
- Change your future travel plans.


- I think we are potentially at a major inflection point in history. I can see protests spreading throughout the middle east and even parts of asia that will forever alter the course of history in the region to the largest extent since ww2. I can also see this fizzing out without much lasting change other than the names of those pulling the puppet strings. The brutality is shocking, but those facing it apparently feel that it is worth the price to gain freedom or whatever their individual goal.

- I'm staying the course with investments - no changes at all. I don't invest much in energy as a separate asset class and I don't invest in anything specific to the affected region so I don't see any reason to change my course. I imagine an oil play was too late well before I even heard news of the events.

- I have no travel plans in those regions for the next 10 years, so it doesn't really affect me.

It's really not much more than a big I don't know.
__________________
SunsetSail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 06:07 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
What are you talking about? I said:

Does that sound like I think the response was appropriate? It was a bad local response. It was not state or federal policy to shoot protesters. Does that sound like Libya?

Neil Young does songs, not accurate history.
Right; and the only thing I know about this is Neil Young's song.

Anyway, I specifically exempted a still developing situation, Libya, and was commenting on Egypt and Tunisia.

It suits me completely for you to believe whatever you want to believe, on this or any other topic. You no doubt were there when it went down.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 06:43 PM   #31
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 23
I find this crisis very interesting in how the internet brings about democratization. Afterall this was a DARPA project.

Regarding the markets, I felt they were generally weak (long term momentum was drifting down), and the 3 day weekend just exacerbated the buildup of negative news.
__________________
eatingmywords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 06:51 PM   #32
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 176
I think these situations are more like East Germany, Poland, Russia, etc. towards the end of the cold war than Kent State.
missionfinder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 06:51 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
The protests at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968 were pretty impressive, both from the number of demonstrators and the extent of the police and military response. At least DW and I were impressed while we were there.......

No Internet or social networks existed at that time. Somehow it all happened anyway.
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 07:04 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
I read (trudged is a more accurate description) through a scholarly book about the impact of democracy on developing states. His team did some exhaustive analysis of the data of the almost 100 countries that have moved to a democratic system since the end of the cold war to around 2005.

His conclusions were both somewhat surprising and somewhat obvious. First the wealthier a country was the more its people were benefited by democracy. Having strong institution like a civil service was very helpful in allowing countries to transition to a democracy. Unfortunately, very poor countries are often worse under a democracy than an authoritarian regime. The problem is that while the first election is generally reasonable fair, the second and subsequent election are very often rigged. The need to rig the future election means that a democratically elected government is more corrupt than an authoritative regime. So for example their is probably less corruption in Saudi Arabia than in Egypt, because the the Saudi Royal family doesn't need to bribe as many people as Mubarak did to stay in power.

One of the problems he pointed out is that a being a former President of a small African country, isn't like being Bill Clinton or Tony Blair. You don't get paid big bucks to give speeches and get high profile positions after you leave office. In Africa, the former President even if he steps down voluntarily often is prosecuted on corruption charges, and he and his family are often imprisoned, and their assets seized. We've seen this in the case of the deposed leaders in Tunisia and Egypt.

One of the novel suggestions he floated would be to offer a retirement bonus to President of developing countries. If you voluntarily leave office after being voted out the West will give you say $5-10 million plus sanctuary in another country as an incentive for leaving peacefully.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 07:42 PM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
If you voluntarily leave office after being voted out the West will give you say $5-10 million plus sanctuary in another country as an incentive for leaving peacefully.
I nominate the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Sweden as host countries. Or maybe they could come to the US and live in Forest Hills and wear ankle bracelets.

But on 2nd thought, how would we in teh US feel if some international organization wanted to reward and give sanctuary to a law breaking US leader? Seems guaranteed to anger the country from which the crimianl is being snatched. Let the citizens hang 'em up and gut 'em in the town square, if they can grab them.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 07:44 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
Unfortunately, very poor countries are often worse under a democracy than an authoritarian regime.
My big worry.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 07:45 PM   #37
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
One of the novel suggestions he floated would be to offer a retirement bonus to President of developing countries. If you voluntarily leave office after being voted out the West will give you say $5-10 million plus sanctuary in another country as an incentive for leaving peacefully.
It is a good suggestion, but I fear the law of unintended consequences. If a sitting president knows he has sanctuary after office he may purposeful gut the nation to line his own pockets while in office.

I wonder how many of these failed democracies had good property rights and a system of checks and balances in government?
missionfinder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 08:12 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by missionfinder View Post
It is a good suggestion, but I fear the law of unintended consequences. If a sitting president knowing he has sanctuary after office may purposeful gut the nation to line his own pockets while in office.
The underlying assumption is that the president will line his and his relatives pockets. A certain amount of corruption is inevitable. If the president is doing a reasonable job, letting his cousin collect kickback for construction project is pretty minor drain on a country's treasury.
Italy, Greece, Turkey, not to mention Illinois and Louisiana have all operated that way for decades and life goes on.

It is when the President is doing such a horrible job (think Mugabee) that he has to bribe everybody to remain in power that is real drain on a country. Imagine how much money and other favors the Arab dictators are throwing at the secret police, and military to keep them on their side right now. When this goes on for years or decades it is devastating to nation

Quote:
I wonder how many of these failed democracies had good property rights and a system of checks and balances in government?
I assume zero. Here is an interesting question can you have good property rights without a democracy and check on government power. I'm not great on European history but were there Monarchys say in the 1700-1900 range that actually respected private property?
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 08:30 PM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,431
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
One of the novel suggestions he floated would be to offer a retirement bonus to President of developing countries. If you voluntarily leave office after being voted out the West will give you say $5-10 million plus sanctuary in another country as an incentive for leaving peacefully.
What? No self-respecting despot would settle for such a measly sum.

Will we need to teach him the concept of 4% SWR too? Wellesley, psst ?

That does not even get him a fix-me-up home in Beverly Hills, for crying out loud.

Let's bring the amount up to $100M, then perhaps they will listen. And I am afraid that's just the starting number for a ruler of a small sub-Saharan country or a little banana republic.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2011, 09:04 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,293
dex, the oilsands [I prefer "tar sands", but that is highly politically incorrect ] of Alberta aren't the whole story.

By coincidence, yesterday a colleague's comments prodded me to look up the Bakken Play, an oil shale deposit in southern Saskatchewan, Montana and North Dakota: Bakken Formation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

He read that there were 3 trillion barrels of oil in the formation. My quick check indicated at most 120 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the whole formation. Not bad, though. Exploratory wells are being drilled by small companies and production should start this year or next. It is expensive: deep and tight. Expect only hundreds of bbl/day per well, not thousands. It is so speculative that the companies doing the exploration are not even noting the work in their annual reports.
__________________

__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Wikileaks Egypt USA dex Other topics 1 01-31-2011 10:34 AM
6 Events That Could Trigger Retirement Midpack FIRE and Money 20 11-15-2010 06:31 AM
What have we/I learned from the recent events? doxeyweb FIRE and Money 46 09-30-2008 09:28 PM
FIRE? Go to sporting events! Berkshire_Bull Young Dreamers 2 10-28-2004 07:43 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:39 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.