Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Repeat of the 1880s?
Old 07-17-2015, 09:17 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
Mr._Graybeard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 663
Repeat of the 1880s?

As a history buff I see parallels between the times we live in today and the decades after the Civil War. Back then the country had nearly inconceivable potential for expansion on many fronts. The growth rate in productivity was so great, though, that it pushed the country into an extended period of deflation that reached to the 20th century. There were just too many bushels of wheat, tons of coal and man-hours on the market chasing too few available dollars.

Politically the effect can be seen in the rise of the Greenback Party and the free-silver movement. Socially, it's notable that some of the most celebrated individuals of the period were gunmen.

In our globally integrated economy, the dot-com boom sent the economy soaring, just like the Civil War did in the northern states. The Internet connected the world like the railroads opened up the West. And the modernization of economies in China, India, and Korea have flooded the world economy with cheap labor like the waves of European immigration (and slave emancipation) fed the labor market in 19th-century America.

If the pattern fits, and history repeats itself, we may be in for some "interesting times."
__________________

__________________
Mr._Graybeard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-17-2015, 11:35 AM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Chicago area
Posts: 427
Like what? A fabricated reason to go to war with Spain? Oh, I guess we already had that in Iraq.

Sent from my SM-T237P using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________

__________________
AnIntentionalRoad is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 12:04 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
Mr._Graybeard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 663
Like extended low-inflation rates, for one thing. Perhaps civil unrest as people find it hard to get ahead. A rising anti-immigrant mood

One phenomenon of the period in the 1800s was that wealth became concentrated in a small share of the population (Mark Twain called it The Gilded Age, alluding to the country's thin veneer of wealth on the surface).
__________________
Mr._Graybeard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 12:43 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr._Graybeard View Post
Like extended low-inflation rates, for one thing. Perhaps civil unrest as people find it hard to get ahead. A rising anti-immigrant mood

One phenomenon of the period in the 1800s was that wealth became concentrated in a small share of the population (Mark Twain called it The Gilded Age, alluding to the country's thin veneer of wealth on the surface).

Wow. Tell me more.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
tmm99 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 12:57 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99 View Post
Wow. Tell me more.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
Me too! I've thought about this myself recently. Thinking about how the so-called 1% are living in a Gatsby-esque era.

My grandparents used to say "well, he was incredibly rich BEFORE INCOME TAXES, now he's just very rich".

They used to say that a lot "...before income taxes...." which they used as a time reference; the 1880's to 1915 or so.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 01:00 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnIntentionalRoad View Post
Like what? A fabricated reason to go to war with Spain? Oh, I guess we already had that in Iraq.

Sent from my SM-T237P using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
I think you're confirming Graybeard's thesis.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 02:31 PM   #7
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 4,929
I'm eagerly awaiting Mr. Twain's new book, myself. And how about them Clanton brothers? Damn!
__________________
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 02:38 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,891
automobile/driver less automobile. I see the similarity.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 03:17 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post
automobile/driver less automobile. I see the similarity.
Not so fast...

Google self-driving car involved in first injury accident | Fox News

But then there's this...

Tesla Offers New ‘LudicrousÂ*Mode’: ZeroÂ*to 60 in 2.8 Seconds - Bloomberg Business
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 03:37 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,213
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
"The first car slowed to a stop so as not to block the intersection — traffic on the far side was not moving. The Google car and the other car in front of it also stopped

Within about a second, a fourth vehicle rear-ended the Google car at about 17 mph. On-board sensors showed the other car did not brake."


Haven't seen an at fault Google incident as of yet (in driverless mode). Incredible if you ask me.
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 04:55 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,431
And that makes the Tesla car "green" and worthy of tax subsidy?

I read the article, and they got that impressive acceleration by drawing 1500 A from the battery pack, which means 20 A through each of these 18650-sized Panasonic batteries (the current is divided through 74 parallel paths). This current is well within the specs of each battery. Of course there are other limitations in the system that were tough to overcome, but this demonstrates the wonderfulness of the Lithium Ion battery.

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 04:58 PM   #12
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,465
Ludicrous Mode? That's straight out of Space Balls
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 05:03 PM   #13
Full time employment: Posting here.
Mr._Graybeard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 663
Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette View Post
I'm eagerly awaiting Mr. Twain's new book, myself. And how about them Clanton brothers? Damn!
Interesting thing about the Clantons. They and the rest of the rural "cowboy" crowd around Tombstone leaned Democratic while the Earps and the merchant class of the city were largely Republican in their sympathies. Party politics were definitely a factor in their rivalry, and politics could get a little heated back then.
__________________
Mr._Graybeard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 05:04 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,213
.. maybe back on topic .. is productivity in the US still improving? Might be different than 1880s.

I thought it was stagnating (in the UK it is for sure, Germany also I think).
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 05:16 PM   #15
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,465
Partisan politics of the 1800's cowboys? Let's not go there - it has nothing to do with FIRE.
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 05:37 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,431
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr._Graybeard View Post
...There were just too many bushels of wheat, tons of coal and man-hours on the market chasing too few available dollars...
I do not know much about the 1880 era, but we do seem to have a surplus of commodities now. Oil is suddenly cheap again. Industrial metals such as steel and copper are abundant again due to more mines opening up when demand drove prices sky high in the mid 2000s.

I just read that pig farms in Denmark are having a hard time because they get only 1.40 euros/kilo, and need 1.70 euros to break even. Here in the US, there's overproduction of milk, and they just dump it in manure pits. A few years ago, several European countries had a wine glut, in which the vintners had to sell for a dime a liter to distill into ethanol to burn in cars. There was also a wine glut in Australia, South America, and South Africa, and the common solution was to let the vines die and cut production. Coffee is getting cheap again too.

I guess it's tough to make money when in the developed world we have more than we can consume. What people still want are not necessities like food, water, roof over the head, basic transportation but fluffs like new iPhones, fast cars, wonder drugs that promise to let them live till 100. There are still places on earth where people are hungry, but these miserable folks have no way to pay for the food that we overproduce.

When commodities are cheap, if a retiree keeps his taste simple his life will not be hard. I am OK with that.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 10:13 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,381
I never really thought of it in terms of relating to a previous historical era. But my primitive working/investment thesis has been tied to technology keeping the lid on inflation. I have been reaching for as high and as safe of yield that I can get and not worry about duration in preferred stocks. It has been working fine, and will continue to do so.....until it doesn't.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 10:45 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,906
I don't think you can tie to a time period so long ago with any degree of accuracy.

Heck, the world changes so fast now I don't know if we can even relate to events a decade ago.
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 11:08 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 700
Remember that the country was on a gold standard, so there literally was not much money available and that lack drove the deflation. Grover Cleveland ran on a platform that opposed "free silver" which was the inflationary policy of backing dollars with silver as well as gold. He advocated balanced budgets and fiscal austerity, too.

There is at least one presidential candidate who would like to return to a gold standard.
__________________
AllDone is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2015, 11:37 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 5,327
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I guess it's tough to make money when in the developed world we have more than we can consume. What people still want are not necessities like food, water, roof over the head, basic transportation but fluffs like new iPhones, fast cars, wonder drugs that promise to let them live till 100. There are still places on earth where people are hungry, but these miserable folks have no way to pay for the food that we overproduce.

When commodities are cheap, if a retiree keeps his taste simple his life will not be hard. I am OK with that.
Galbaith put it this way:

".... the mega-economy's expenditure of billions of dollars for the mental conditioning of consumers to the point where a well-financed advertising campaign can create needs, even urgent needs, which were never conceived of before in human history. To this end we are systematically brain-washed, and our whole way of life is being re-shaped, distorted, and corrupted to provide markets for the meta-structure."

Review of The New Industrial State
Galbraith's New Book on Industrial State Has Startling Impact - A book review by Professor Carroll Quigley
__________________

__________________
Even clouds seem bright and breezy, 'Cause the livin' is free and easy, See the rat race in a new way, Like you're wakin' up to a new day (Dr. Tarr and Professor Fether lyrics, Alan Parsons Project, based on an EA Poe story)
daylatedollarshort is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Repeat that please - Total Wireless and other phones plans that use Verizon spncity Other topics 3 04-13-2015 09:08 AM
Sell High Buy Low and Repeat ferco FIRE and Money 23 08-06-2012 06:59 PM
Will we see a repeat of the 1930's and 1970's in the stock market? Retire Soon FIRE and Money 6 12-22-2008 08:25 PM
repeat message - have a will Sandy Other topics 2 05-02-2007 03:37 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:39 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.