ChiliPepr
Full time employment: Posting here.
I'm still not getting it. Five years ago, the actuaries said the plan's $2.1 billion in assets were enough to cover all liabilities for 30 years. Now, with $1.88 billion, we've got not quite 2/3 of the necessary amount? I don't recall all the details, but I don't think there have been any significant changes in the assumptions underlying the actuaries' evaluation, or in the employee demographics. I'm not even certain there have been more retirements than were expected, due to the budget shortfalls of the last few years--I just assumed that anyone who got laid off and was eligible to retire probably did so, either immediately or maybe after a few months if they couldn't find another job.
It's just not making sense to me that in five years, liabilities have increased so much that an 11 or 12% decline in assets means the system is 1/3 less able to meet its obligations. But I'm not an actuary. What do I know? Maybe it is just one of those counter-intuitive things that doesn't sound right to me, even when it is.
Actually, I think it does make sense... 5 years ago, they said $2.1B was enough for 30 years. 5 years ago, they may have used an assumption that the portfolio would gain 6.075% return every year... so at the end of 5 years the value of the portfolio would be $2.82B. $1.88B is 2/3rds of $2.82B.
All pensions assume that they will make some return, when they are wrong it can cause havok.
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