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Super Committee Jeopardy
Old 11-11-2011, 12:15 PM   #1
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Super Committee Jeopardy

Any guesses on where the DOW will end up if the Super Committee fails to come up with a substantive deficit reduction plan? My guess is about 9500
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Old 11-11-2011, 01:10 PM   #2
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I was imagining some politician saying "I'll have deficit reduction for $1200, Alex"...
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Old 11-11-2011, 01:27 PM   #3
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Any guesses on where the DOW will end up if the Super Committee fails to come up with a substantive deficit reduction plan? My guess is about 9500
Sounds like a buying opportunity.
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Old 11-11-2011, 02:39 PM   #4
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I have no idea what the Dow will do, beyond go up and down...

As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...

I'd like to be wrong, though.
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Old 11-11-2011, 02:50 PM   #5
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I don't think any major thing will happen... not many people thought they could come to an agreement and the already agreed cuts would happen... for awhile there, I was thinking they might actually come to an agreement, but my faith is being restored....


Now, the question is what will happen if we fail to cut $4 TRILLION from the budget over the next 10 years.... and IMO it needs to be $9 trillion..
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Old 11-11-2011, 02:50 PM   #6
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I have no idea what the Dow will do, beyond go up and down...

As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...

I'd like to be wrong, though.
We have the best government money can buy.
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Old 11-11-2011, 03:59 PM   #7
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.....

Now, the question is what will happen if we fail to cut $4 TRILLION from the budget over the next 10 years.... and IMO it needs to be $9 trillion..
I'm hoping that they realize the political fallout that would accompany not striking a deal and that their cushy jobs would be in peril. If they fail to strike a deal and the stock market and economy go in the tank as a result there will be an even madder electorate that will (hopefully) crucify any incumbent at the polls in November of 2012.
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Old 11-11-2011, 04:26 PM   #8
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I'm hoping that they realize the political fallout that would accompany not striking a deal and that their cushy jobs would be in peril. If they fail to strike a deal and the stock market and economy go in the tank as a result there will be an even madder electorate that will (hopefully) crucify any incumbent at the polls in November of 2012.
I have not looked, but I would bet money that the people on the committe do not have to worry about getting re-elected...

You don't want to put your 'weak' players in this game....

I also think that calculus is that Obama and the dems will be blamed more than the repubs, so they can pick up seats and do more of what they want in a couple of years...


Another possibility is that after these mandatory cuts go into effect, there will be some votes to restore some of them...
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Old 11-11-2011, 06:03 PM   #9
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Not only will the USA fail to be able to agree on a debt reduction plan, Greece and Italy will not do very well either.
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Old 11-11-2011, 06:17 PM   #10
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I have not looked, but I would bet money that the people on the committe do not have to worry about getting re-elected...

You don't want to put your 'weak' players in this game....

I also think that calculus is that Obama and the dems will be blamed more than the repubs, so they can pick up seats and do more of what they want in a couple of years...


Another possibility is that after these mandatory cuts go into effect, there will be some votes to restore some of them...
None of the senators on the committee will be up for reelection in 2012, but all house members are. But the senators will be putting their colleagues in play if they don't strike a deal.
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Old 11-12-2011, 01:05 PM   #11
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Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.
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Old 11-12-2011, 01:51 PM   #12
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Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.
I agree. I suspect that investors have discounted any likelihood of an agreement yet this quarter. However, there is enough other silliness in the market that anything goes.
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Old 11-12-2011, 10:00 PM   #13
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Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.
If so, will Moody's or Fitch then be forced to downgrade and we get to start all over again?
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Old 11-13-2011, 06:25 AM   #14
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Look at the PIIGS. Their issues are politically related. So are the countries providing the Euro Bailout.

The solution is going to be: GWB tax cut sunset on the tax side. That gets the people who signed up with Grover Norquist off the hook on their pledge. The sad part is they all know it and are letting the drama play out for appearances.

For spending cuts (related to the super committee recommendation).... It may turn out that only part of the cuts are identified (specifically) by the super committed and the remaining cuts are across the board!

The rest of it will happen after the election.
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Old 11-13-2011, 06:33 AM   #15
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My thoughts exactly.
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As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...
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Old 11-13-2011, 09:27 AM   #16
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My thoughts exactly.
Before the super committee was formed, I was hoping they would appoint moderates from both sides. Silly me
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Old 11-13-2011, 09:33 AM   #17
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I don't think we'll get a stalemate or a solution, but we will get something that no one can understand, everyone will see differently, and could best be used to fertilize most pastures.
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Old 11-13-2011, 09:35 AM   #18
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I don't think we'll get a stalemate or a solution, but we will get something that no one can understand, everyone will see differently, and could best be used to fertilize most pastures.
And both parties will blame the other for the outcome.
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Old 11-13-2011, 09:39 AM   #19
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And both parties will blame the other for the outcome.
Right. Blame each other for producing fertilizer but take credit for growing the produce...
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Old 11-13-2011, 10:28 AM   #20
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Before the super committee was formed, I was hoping they would appoint moderates from both sides. Silly me
Should have had one party pick the other party's participants. Or at least one or two of the players from the other party. Maybe we would have ended up with a couple of moderates.

I'll cut the pie into two pieces but you have first choice of which piece you want.

That would have kept it fair(er).
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