The Hill on the cusp of healthcare

[donheff]

DW and I walked over to the House this afternoon to see what was up with the opposition. The Tea Party had about 1000 people adjacent to the Congress chamber making their last minute opposition known. My son says they had quite a few more out here yesterday. But, their rants were falling on deaf ears because as we were there Bart Stupak was coming around to the correct side so the game is up. Here is a shot of the Tea Party group. I was glad to see a sign saying boo if you see or hear a racist rant. The second photo is a shot of my about-to-deliver Jewish DIL in front of a Catholics for Health Care Reform sign

[samclem]

donheff,
- Thanks for the pictures, it looks like the weather is very nice in DC.
- According to reports, Congressman Stupak has accepted the Executive Order as 'good enough" to protect against government funding of abortions. Congressman Bohner disagrees. In part:

Quote:

“The law of the land trumps any Executive Order, which can be reversed or altered at the stroke of a pen by this or any subsequent President without any congressional approval or notice. Moreover, while an Executive Order can direct members of the executive branch, it cannot direct the private sector. “Because of Roe v. Wade, courts have interpreted the decision as a statutory mandate that the government must provide federal funding for elective abortion in through federal programs. In other words, no Executive Order or regulation can override a statutory mandate unless Congress passes a law that prohibits federal funding from being used in this manner. . . Make no mistake, a ‘yes' vote on the Democrats' health care bill is a vote for taxpayer-funded abortions.”

Anyway, it looks like this thing is going to pass. My guess is that these legislators will have plenty more chances to vote on this as it ping-pongs back and forth between the House and Senate due to amendments and points of order being raised.
- Next the political winds will change and we'll need to figure out how to dismantle the beast with the least damage to our economy. Hopefully the end result in about 5-6 years will be something better than the status quo and something much better than the present legislation.

[youbet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem Hopefully the end result in about 5-6 years will be something better than the status quo and something much better than the present legislation.

Yep. Our current status could definitely use some improvement. Sadly, this bill's good points (to me) are offset by stinky stuff.

And the wheels of politics roll on, providing a ride for some and crushing others.......

It will be interesting to analyze and discuss over the next several months how the details shake out and how they impact the viability of FIRE for various individuals.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem Anyway, it looks like this thing is going to pass. .

[clifp]

Even as I retiree I found it hard to follow the actual constantly changing content of the Bill.

The relatively objective (IMO) Christian Science Monitor. has good series on what is really in the bill here. It seems to me that most of the controversial/expense stuff doesn't take effect until Jan 1, 2014 so there is plenty of time to fix it, repeal or in my most cynical mood make it worse.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp It seems to me that most of the controversial/expense stuff doesn't take effect until Jan 1, 2014

Yup. But as I understand it, one of the things that kicks in immediately is a prohibition against rescissions . . . which means the individual policy I just bought is actual insurance whereas before it was potentially worthless.

[youbet]

From the Christian Science Monitor article posted by Clifp (above) comes the understatement of the day:

"And news coverage of healthcare reform has focused as much, or more, on political wrangling than on substance"

[samclem]

It is interesting that today, too late to have an impact on the issue, the NYT finally publishes an OP-ED that highlights the huge cost of this thing, the unfunded future liabilities to which the nation will now be obligated, and the crazy math and extremely unlikely assumptions behind the CBO numbers indicating the bill will reduce the deficit.

Quote:

Removing the unrealistic annual Medicare savings ($463 billion) and the stolen annual revenues from Social Security and long-term care insurance ($123 billion), and adding in the annual spending that so far is not accounted for ($114 billion) quickly generates additional deficits of $562 billion in the first 10 years. And the nation would be on the hook for two more entitlement programs rapidly expanding as far as the eye can see.

It would be funny if not so serious. Maybe I'll be in a laughing mood later--hopefully in November of this year.

[Stevewc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good Yup. But as I understand it, one of the things that kicks in immediately is a prohibition against rescission's . . . which means the individual policy I just bought is actual insurance whereas before it was potentially worthless.

Hello Gone4Good,
Would you mind enlightening me a little more on your point here?
I also bought an individual policy about 4 months back but I'm not sure how the bill will help in my case. Is it that it can't be canceled on you or what? I'm still trying to figure out what the bill does for or to the average person immediately after passing.
Thanks for more info,
Steve

[73ss454]

I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

[Stevewc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454 I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

I've been wondering the same thing today.
Its actually been going up in the health section lately but who knows after the thing passes.
Steve

[donheff]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454 I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevewc I've been wondering the same thing today. Its actually been going up in the health section lately but who knows after the thing passes. Steve

Boehner and company say this will bankrupt the country as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth. According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP. Remember, it isn't about what happens next week in the Senate. The basic substance of the bill will be approved tonight and signed into law by the President. All the Senate will do next week is make some fixes.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by donheff Boehner and company say this will bankrupt the country as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth. According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP. Remember, it isn't about what happens next week in the Senate. The basic substance of the bill will be approved tonight and signed into law by the President. All the Senate will do next week is make some fixes.

I expect that the market has already priced in the chances of the bill(s) passing this weekend, so for whatever reason the market doesn't seem to think that it's going to be bad for the economy. Still, it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

2Cor521

[unclemick]

Somehow I have this feeling - this is gonna get tweaked every few years from here on out.

We're gonna 'simply and improve it' - sorta like our tax code.

.

heh heh heh - anywise I have my up to date Passport should need to become a medical tourist.

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454 I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

Last year when it started to look like the Senate would actually pass a bill, health insurers rose roughly 30% over the course of two months, right up to the vote. Non-HMO provider networks, such as for-profit hospitals and plastic surgery groups were dropping a little bit.

It's hard to tell what sort of ideas will tickle the minds of investors regarding individual stocks. Right now futures contract trading points to a modestly lower market opening tomorrow morning, but that could be due more it international news related to interest rates and proposed banking regulation coming out of the UK.

[kyounge1956]

Quote:

Originally Posted by donheff ...as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth...

How so? I haven't followed the debate, so I don't know what you are referring to. What, specifically, about the bill is socialistic, and how exactly is a Hell on earth?

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevewc Hello Gone4Good, Would you mind enlightening me a little more on your point here? I also bought an individual policy about 4 months back but I'm not sure how the bill will help in my case. Is it that it can't be canceled on you or what? I'm still trying to figure out what the bill does for or to the average person immediately after passing. Thanks for more info, Steve

My understanding is that the legislation bans rescissions (a.k.a. retroactively revoking insurance once someone gets sick). This isn't much of a problem in the group market, where insurance is bought on a pool basis. But in the individual market it is easy for insurers to isolate people who become sick and then try to figure out if there is a reason they can deny coverage. Because of this potential, I don't really feel like I have insurance. If they end rescissions, I will.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by donheff According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP.

So you heard it here.

If the market doesn't crash tomorrow (and given the rhetoric, it should be a doozy) it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

[kyounge1956]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good Quote: Originally Posted by donheff According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP. So you heard it here. If the market doesn't crash tomorrow it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

That won't necessarily mean the Repubs are wrong. Maybe they are afflicted with the curse of Cassandra.

[SarahW]

The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. -- Thomas Jefferson