The Hill on the cusp of healthcare

[donheff]

DW and I walked over to the House this afternoon to see what was up with the opposition. The Tea Party had about 1000 people adjacent to the Congress chamber making their last minute opposition known. My son says they had quite a few more out here yesterday. But, their rants were falling on deaf ears because as we were there Bart Stupak was coming around to the correct side so the game is up. Here is a shot of the Tea Party group. I was glad to see a sign saying boo if you see or hear a racist rant. The second photo is a shot of my about-to-deliver Jewish DIL in front of a Catholics for Health Care Reform sign

 

[samclem]

donheff,
- Thanks for the pictures, it looks like the weather is very nice in DC.
- According to reports, Congressman Stupak has accepted the Executive Order as 'good enough" to protect against government funding of abortions. Congressman Bohner disagrees. In part:

“The law of the land trumps any Executive Order, which can be reversed or altered at the stroke of a pen by this or any subsequent President without any congressional approval or notice. Moreover, while an Executive Order can direct members of the executive branch, it cannot direct the private sector.
“Because of Roe v. Wade, courts have interpreted the decision as a statutory mandate that the government must provide federal funding for elective abortion in through federal programs. In other words, no Executive Order or regulation can override a statutory mandate unless Congress passes a law that prohibits federal funding from being used in this manner. . . Make no mistake, a ‘yes' vote on the Democrats' health care bill is a vote for taxpayer-funded abortions.”

Anyway, it looks like this thing is going to pass. My guess is that these legislators will have plenty more chances to vote on this as it ping-pongs back and forth between the House and Senate due to amendments and points of order being raised.
- Next the political winds will change and we'll need to figure out how to dismantle the beast with the least damage to our economy. Hopefully the end result in about 5-6 years will be something better than the status quo and something much better than the present legislation.

 

[youbet]

Hopefully the end result in about 5-6 years will be something better than the status quo and something much better than the present legislation.

Yep. Our current status could definitely use some improvement. Sadly, this bill's good points (to me) are offset by stinky stuff.

And the wheels of politics roll on, providing a ride for some and crushing others.......

It will be interesting to analyze and discuss over the next several months how the details shake out and how they impact the viability of FIRE for various individuals.

 

[Gone4Good]

Anyway, it looks like this thing is going to pass. .

 

[clifp]

Even as I retiree I found it hard to follow the actual constantly changing content of the Bill.

The relatively objective (IMO) Christian Science Monitor. has good series on what is really in the bill here. It seems to me that most of the controversial/expense stuff doesn't take effect until Jan 1, 2014 so there is plenty of time to fix it, repeal or in my most cynical mood make it worse.

 

[Gone4Good]

It seems to me that most of the controversial/expense stuff doesn't take effect until Jan 1, 2014

Yup. But as I understand it, one of the things that kicks in immediately is a prohibition against rescissions . . . which means the individual policy I just bought is actual insurance whereas before it was potentially worthless.

 

[youbet]

From the Christian Science Monitor article posted by Clifp (above) comes the understatement of the day:

"And news coverage of healthcare reform has focused as much, or more, on political wrangling than on substance"

 

[samclem]

It is interesting that today, too late to have an impact on the issue, the NYT finally publishes an OP-ED that highlights the huge cost of this thing, the unfunded future liabilities to which the nation will now be obligated, and the crazy math and extremely unlikely assumptions behind the CBO numbers indicating the bill will reduce the deficit.

Removing the unrealistic annual Medicare savings ($463 billion) and the stolen annual revenues from Social Security and long-term care insurance ($123 billion), and adding in the annual spending that so far is not accounted for ($114 billion) quickly generates additional deficits of $562 billion in the first 10 years. And the nation would be on the hook for two more entitlement programs rapidly expanding as far as the eye can see.

It would be funny if not so serious. Maybe I'll be in a laughing mood later--hopefully in November of this year.

 

[Stevewc]

Yup. But as I understand it, one of the things that kicks in immediately is a prohibition against rescission's . . . which means the individual policy I just bought is actual insurance whereas before it was potentially worthless.

Hello Gone4Good,
Would you mind enlightening me a little more on your point here?
I also bought an individual policy about 4 months back but I'm not sure how the bill will help in my case. Is it that it can't be canceled on you or what? I'm still trying to figure out what the bill does for or to the average person immediately after passing.
Thanks for more info,
Steve

 

[73ss454]

I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

 

[Stevewc]

I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

I've been wondering the same thing today.
Its actually been going up in the health section lately but who knows after the thing passes.
Steve

 

[donheff]

I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

I've been wondering the same thing today.
Its actually been going up in the health section lately but who knows after the thing passes.
Steve

Boehner and company say this will bankrupt the country as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth. According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP. Remember, it isn't about what happens next week in the Senate. The basic substance of the bill will be approved tonight and signed into law by the President. All the Senate will do next week is make some fixes.

 

[SecondCor521]

Boehner and company say this will bankrupt the country as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth. According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP. Remember, it isn't about what happens next week in the Senate. The basic substance of the bill will be approved tonight and signed into law by the President. All the Senate will do next week is make some fixes.

I expect that the market has already priced in the chances of the bill(s) passing this weekend, so for whatever reason the market doesn't seem to think that it's going to be bad for the economy. Still, it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

2Cor521

 

[unclemick]

Somehow I have this feeling - this is gonna get tweaked every few years from here on out.

We're gonna 'simply and improve it' - sorta like our tax code.

.

heh heh heh - anywise I have my up to date Passport should need to become a medical tourist.

 

[M Paquette]

I wonder how the stock market will take it once this passes.

Last year when it started to look like the Senate would actually pass a bill, health insurers rose roughly 30% over the course of two months, right up to the vote. Non-HMO provider networks, such as for-profit hospitals and plastic surgery groups were dropping a little bit.

It's hard to tell what sort of ideas will tickle the minds of investors regarding individual stocks. Right now futures contract trading points to a modestly lower market opening tomorrow morning, but that could be due more it international news related to interest rates and proposed banking regulation coming out of the UK.

 

[kyounge1956]

...as well as through us into a socialist hell on earth...

How so? I haven't followed the debate, so I don't know what you are referring to. What, specifically, about the bill is socialistic, and how exactly is a Hell on earth?

 

[Gone4Good]

Hello Gone4Good,
Would you mind enlightening me a little more on your point here?
I also bought an individual policy about 4 months back but I'm not sure how the bill will help in my case. Is it that it can't be canceled on you or what? I'm still trying to figure out what the bill does for or to the average person immediately after passing.
Thanks for more info,
Steve

My understanding is that the legislation bans rescissions (a.k.a. retroactively revoking insurance once someone gets sick). This isn't much of a problem in the group market, where insurance is bought on a pool basis. But in the individual market it is easy for insurers to isolate people who become sick and then try to figure out if there is a reason they can deny coverage. Because of this potential, I don't really feel like I have insurance. If they end rescissions, I will.

 

[Gone4Good]

According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP.

So you heard it here.

If the market doesn't crash tomorrow (and given the rhetoric, it should be a doozy) it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

 

[kyounge1956]

According to the efficient market theory we should have a black Monday tomorrow if the real money agrees with the GOP.

So you heard it here.

If the market doesn't crash tomorrow it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

That won't necessarily mean the Repubs are wrong. Maybe they are afflicted with the curse of Cassandra.

 

[SarahW]

The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. -- Thomas Jefferson

 

[FIRE'd@51]

The disappointing thing to me is that, IMO, this bill isn't really health care reform. Other than being expensive, I'm not sure what it is. I had hoped the Dems, with the Presidency and large Congressional majorities would come up with a better bill. I can only wonder how many more people will lose their insurance, go bankrupt, or even die waiting for the guts of this bill to go into effect in 2014. Sadly, we have just witnessed our leaders get all wrapped up in winning the political game at the expense of substance. It wasn't because of the Republican opposition. Their votes weren't needed. The only thing bipartisan about this bill was the opposition to it.

 

[samclem]

So you heard it here.

If the market doesn't crash tomorrow (and given the rhetoric, it should be a doozy) it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

No, VP Biden said the government is going to reign in those insurance companies! And the president has had lots of comments about their obscene profits (less than 5%) and outrageous rate increases. But the mystery is: The trade group for these insurance companies spent millions in support of this legislation--I wonder what they knew that we don't. And, mysteriously, the stock prices for insurers are going up. Gee, somebody isn't too worried about the government being effective in reigning them in.
Rising medical costs aren't due to the small amount of profit made by insurance companies. Costs go up when consumers don't directly pay for the goods they consume, which causes demand to go through the roof and this drives prices up. When we add millions more people to the pool of customers, and subsidize care so everyone pays for everyone else, that's a recipe for higher medical costs.

 

[youbet]

So you heard it here.

If the market doesn't crash tomorrow (and given the rhetoric, it should be a doozy) it means the Republicans are wrong and everyone should support health care reform. And remember, markets are never wrong.

But if you wanted health care reform, why would you support this bill?

 

[clifp]

I am not going to get mad just even.

To start with I think I'll cancel my existing health insurance (I really don't use it.) in 2013. If I'm get sick I'll going ahead and renew in 2014 when they ban denying insurance for pre-existing conditions. The fine for not having insurance is much less than buying insurance today I suspect will only get worse.

I think with some income shifting, I should be able to get my AGI down below 400% of the poverty level so I can qualify for subsidizes. After all Congress is worried about unemployed people like myself not being able afford insurance, so I don't want to disappoint them.

 

[ERD50]

But if you wanted health care reform, why would you support this bill?

I cringe every time I hear "health care reform" associated with this bill. I'm all for reform, bring it on! I am against this bill.

I am not going to get mad just even.

Yep. This has now officially stopped being about what is the right thing to do for the country. Congress made their decision. It is now the time to figure out how we adapt, as individuals, to this apparent new reality.

The conflict for me is that doing so is probably going to feel like crapping on my kids. Oh well, that was Congress doing it, not me.

I should probably turn off the TV, radio, Internet and not pick up the paper. I know how I'll respond, just as I did when Congress broke their arms patting themselves on the back for the "Cash for Clunkers" bill. Hey - we offered $1B of your money to other people, and they took it!



-ERD50