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Old 03-30-2012, 09:55 AM   #161
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Some clarification please?

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I suspect what MichaelB is warning about is the fact this thread keeps drifting back fom "How will the Supremes rule on the ACA?" to "Let's debate the interpretation of the Constitution", which cannot be done in isolation of the current political divide. Since it appears difficult to do one without the other, and debating politics is off limits, I doubt this thread will last much longer.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:58 AM   #162
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While I hope the thread continues, it has lasted 5 times longer than many originally thought it would.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:58 AM   #163
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Not quoting the original post because it was back a page or two...

But the example of garbage is not quite the same as this bill...

First, almost everybody wants their garbage picked up... and they do not mind the local gvmt doing it...

Which leads me to the second point... it is not part of the federal gvmt to pick up my garbage.... heck, it is not even a gvmt entity that picks up mine... it is public utility district... (I guess you could argue that is one...)...



My point.... most laws that are very popular with a large majority of the people will get passed in a form that most will agree with... this law fails this test badly.... this does not mean it will be thrown out by the SC, as it might be written well enough to pass... but if it is not thrown out it will be picked at by Congress for a long time....
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:14 AM   #164
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In our neck of the woods we are personally responsible for our trash. We are expected to separate trash from recycleables and bring both to local recycling centers in each community and pay for each bag of trash we generate. The cost is modest, $3-4 a bag depending on the size of the bag. No need for government involvement in collecting trash, although the towns sponsor the recycling centers.

Perhaps we could fashion a system of medical care on how we do trash - some government involvement, personal responsibility and affordability.

Too late methinks.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:26 AM   #165
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Not just "I'm outta here" but also "I'm changing jobs". Than could have a very positive effect on business and employment in the US.
It could also have a very negative effect as the federal govt will have to raise taxes significantly to fund it, and even that will not work over time.....

I agree the model is broken in many ways, but the Congress could have taken it a bite at a time instead of ramming a 2700 page bill that few understand down our throats. If the individual mandate is upheld, the govt will literally have the power to make us buy whatever they want us too, as the precedent would have been set by this case.

Call me old school but I think the Constitution still has merit, and I am not ready to tear it up just yet. Does the SCOTUS feel the same way? We'll see..........
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:42 AM   #166
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The justices meet today:

Justices meet Friday to vote on health care case - Yahoo! News


The voting goes according to seniority. Interestingly, from the article...

"That's because Roberts speaks first, followed by Scalia, then Kennedy. If the three men hold a common view, the Obama health care overhaul probably is history. If they don't, it probably survives."
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:52 AM   #167
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That sounds right. From what I have read, Kennedy and Roberts are the key swing votes. Scalia is expected to vote against the individual mandate.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:02 AM   #168
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Is anybody planning any concrete changes, or heard of strategies for this, based on this week's hearings? Of course, nothing has actually changed yet, but it's fair to say that the popular perception is that the law is in much more trouble than most people believed it would be. We'll obviously know more when the ruling is announced in Juine, or before then if information from deliberations becomes public, but maybe there's hedging or other practical steps that make more sense today than they did a week ago?

Me: The only way the ACA has affected me to date is that DD (23 YO) became eligible to stay on my (previous) employer's insurance plan. It's a big plan (TRICARE), so I'm watching for "what if" news on that.

Anyone else investigating options? Any value added in acting today?
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:11 AM   #169
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Perhaps we could fashion a system of medical care on how we do trash - some government involvement, personal responsibility and affordability.
But, if you don't pay for your trash pickup, it doesn't impact me. Today, if you don't have health insurance and get injured and can't pay the $200K for MRIs, surgery, hospital stay, etc, then I and everyone else get the bill (through cost shifting to our private insurance or through higher taxes.) That's the case the government is making: The costs of treating the uninsured are already being paid by others, they want to codify it.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:12 AM   #170
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Is anybody planning any concrete changes, or heard of strategies for this, based on this week's hearings? Of course, nothing has actually changed yet, but it's fair to say that the popular perception is that the law is in much more trouble than most people believed it would be. We'll obviously know more when the ruling is announced in Juine, or before then if information from deliberations becomes public, but maybe there's hedging or other practical steps that make more sense today than they did a week ago?

Me: The only way the ACA has affected me to date is that DD (23 YO) became eligible to stay on my (previous) employer's insurance plan. It's a big plan (TRICARE), so I'm watching for "what if" news on that.

Anyone else investigating options? Any value added in acting today?
I posted elsewhere on this forum that I am thinking about stepping down from my j*b to take a sabbatical beginning this summer. The sabbatical would be ~2 yrs long to include a full time masters degree, and I was assuming/depending on using COBRA until Jan 1 2014 when the exchanges were to take effect (pre-existing conditions in my family).

Nothing I can do today, but if the ACA fails constitutional scrutiny I'll be taking a shorter sabbatical to make sure I complete my masters and get re-employed before COBRA runs out.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:13 AM   #171
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IMO, the people who voted for this knew they could not get plan A passed... so they did plan B... and are hoping it sticks...
As I recall, Plan B was what the Senate had already passed when its version of the bill had 60 votes. It was yet to be reconciled with the House version when the Senate lost its 60th vote for the bill so the House held its nose and passed the Senate bill as is. The law, then, really wasn't a "finished product". It was forced through like a "shotgun marriage" because there was no way the differences could have been reconciled in conference at that point.

I think the people who voted for this -- those in the House that passed a badly flawed Senate bill as is -- knew they were getting a flawed bill... but they recognized that the alternative was MANY more years of gridlock on Capitol Hill and thus they had to take whatever they could get.

IMO, it's a shame that not enough policy makers seem to understand how important it is to get employers out of the health insurance business, how many jobs that could be opened up because of many people who could retire except for the health insurance problem, and how much entrepreneurial spirit could be unleashed by people who could afford to leave Megacorp and pursue their own dreams because Megacorp no longer offered the health insurance "golden handcuffs".
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:13 AM   #172
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What I will say is the law had some good ideas in it, but the way in which it was passed in a partisan way with no compromise, has caused a lot of the polarization we see today.

Again, I fail to see why this had to be done some quickly, with so many "back-room" deals cut, and all the exemptions for politically tied unions, etc, etc, etc.

On top of all that, it's an entitlement the CBO says we can't afford...... the US has an "entitlement addiction", and that's no healthy for the future.........

What is the answer? Maybe figure out the pre-existing problem first, take on one problem at a time.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:13 AM   #173
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Some clarification please?

I thought the thread was about the Supreme Court's review of this law. not specifically about 'health care'. We have had numerous threads on health care. But this SC review is 'new news', we have the transcripts and reports, and I thought that was the topic of this thread. I thought re-hashing health care was what was going to get the thread closed. Sorry, I'm confused.

edit/add - looked back and indeed the OP is specific about the SC hearings of this week, not about HC in general. And your own post #50 provides positive feedback on a comment that was solely about the SC process, not a whiff of HC in it. So yes, I am very confused.

-ERD50
I am so very sorry for your confusion. This happens when one posts in a rush. Still, REW did get it and managed to correctly convey my intention.

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I suspect what MichaelB is warning about is the fact this thread keeps drifting back fom "How will the Supremes rule on the ACA?" to "Let's debate the interpretation of the Constitution", which cannot be done in isolation of the current political divide. Since it appears difficult to do one without the other, and debating politics is off limits, I doubt this thread will last much longer.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:16 AM   #174
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But, if you don't pay for your trash pickup, it doesn't impact me. Today, if you don't have health insurance and get injured and can't pay the $200K for MRIs, surgery, hospital stay, etc, then I and everyone else get the bill (through cost shifting to our private insurance or through higher taxes.) That's the case the government is making: The costs of treating the uninsured are already being paid by others, they want to codify it.
I think we all agree the system is currently being abused by those who have no insurance. However, giving the uninsured insurance just so some can feel good about it is unlikely to lower costs, and is a fallacy of the legislation. It will lead to futher abuse of the system, and ERs will be even more overrun with people having an ER doctor treat their runny noses...........this already happens........
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:43 AM   #175
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Is anybody planning any concrete changes, or heard of strategies for this, based on this week's hearings? Of course, nothing has actually changed yet, but it's fair to say that the popular perception is that the law is in much more trouble than most people believed it would be. We'll obviously know more when the ruling is announced in Juine, or before then if information from deliberations becomes public, but maybe there's hedging or other practical steps that make more sense today than they did a week ago?

Me: The only way the ACA has affected me to date is that DD (23 YO) became eligible to stay on my (previous) employer's insurance plan. It's a big plan (TRICARE), so I'm watching for "what if" news on that.

Anyone else investigating options? Any value added in acting today?
Options are so limited its not clear what most people could do. People with coverage look to make sure they keep it.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:45 AM   #176
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What is the answer? Maybe figure out the pre-existing problem first, take on one problem at a time.
The problem is that without an individual mandate or universal coverage, one can't easily deal with the problems of pre-existing conditions and underwriting without introducing massive adverse selection. In that sense, the "severability" question regarding the rest of the law is largely moot; if the Supremes strike down the individual mandate, allowing the elimination of underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions is a disaster waiting to happen.

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Options are so limited its not clear what most people could do. People with coverage look to make sure they keep it.
Translation -- I didn't really want to retire anyway....
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:48 AM   #177
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I am so very sorry for your confusion. This happens when one posts in a rush. Still, REW did get it and managed to correctly convey my intention.

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I suspect what MichaelB is warning about is the fact this thread keeps drifting back fom "How will the Supremes rule on the ACA?" to "Let's debate the interpretation of the Constitution", which cannot be done in isolation of the current political divide. Since it appears difficult to do one without the other, and debating politics is off limits, I doubt this thread will last much longer.
OK, thanks for the confirmation then. I didn't want to take REWahoo's post at face value, since he also predicted a post #23 closure (just yankin' your chain REWahoo )

But I'll have to chew on that a while. I hardly see how debating health care is any less likely to go into partisan politics than discussing the SC ruling process. I guess I'm just not sure what this means. Oh well.


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Old 03-30-2012, 11:50 AM   #178
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Again, I fail to see why this had to be done some quickly
It had so many back room deals because it was the only way to get 60 Senators on board. And it was done so quickly because the Senate lost its 60th vote before the bills could be reconciled in conference and the House had to swallow a badly flawed bill as "half a loaf" compared to not accepting it and probably not getting any significant reform for many, many years.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:52 AM   #179
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OK, thanks for the confirmation then. I didn't want to take REWahoo's post at face value, since he also predicted a post #23 closure (just yankin' your chain REWahoo )

But I'll have to chew on that a while. I hardly see how debating health care is any less likely to go into partisan politics than discussing the SC ruling process. I guess I'm just not sure what this means. Oh well.
[ERD50
I think it was right for the SCOTUS to rule on this now. Virtually NO legislation is unwound once it takes effect and it entrenched in society.

The ruling, either way, WILL have an effect on folks looking to retire, as the biggest obstacle to ER is frequently health care up to age 65........
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:53 AM   #180
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The problem is that without an individual mandate or universal coverage, one can't easily deal with the problems of pre-existing conditions and underwriting without introducing massive adverse selection. In that sense, the "severability" question regarding the rest of the law is largely moot; if the Supremes strike down the individual mandate, allowing the elimination of underwriting and pre-existing condition exclusions is a disaster waiting to happen.
A disaster, or perhaps the push and motivation needed for additional legislation to find another way to deal with the issue. There is an element of common interest which could bring all the constituencies to the table.

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Translation -- I didn't really want to retire anyway....
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