Understanding Brexit

[Montecfo]

At the very least it was the recognition by certain parties that the weaponization of this 'crisis' could be an effective political tool.

[Just waiting for the Mods to delete both our posts]

The EU is a bit like a scratchy shirt. Not that comfortable for the diversity of economies and viewpoints.

EU drawing a hard line so as to not make it easy for future "defectors".

 

[MichaelB]

Brexit = Hotel California

You can check out anytime you like,
But you can never leave.

A series of Brexit votes have taken place in the Commons:
On Tuesday, MPs rejected Mrs May's withdrawal agreement for a second time by 149 votes
On Wednesday, MPs voted to reject the idea of the UK leaving the EU without a deal under any circumstances
Then, on Thursday, the Commons voted by 413 to 202 to seek an extension to Article 50 - the legal mechanism by which the UK is due to leave the EU

From BBC, here https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47579033

 

[Rianne]

Here we are again

I'm not a betting person, but this I would bet on, a national re vote, as stated in my previous posts here. Three months is plenty of time.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I am not sure they will ever leave. Seems like a bunch of posturing to waste taxpayers money and appease the Leave crowd, who probably were not aware of or even bothered to research the ramifications when they voted.

We (DW & me) are watching carefully, as we are considering in moving back to the UK which traditionally had a reasonably sane governing body. We would be in the Remain camp if we lived there now.

 

[fosterscik]

I am not sure they will ever leave. Seems like a bunch of posturing to waste taxpayers money and appease the Leave crowd, who probably were not aware of or even bothered to research the ramifications when they voted.

We (DW & me) are watching carefully, as we a considering in moving back to the UK which traditionally had a reasonably sane governing body. We would be in the Remain camp if we lived there now.

Ditto

 

[Nemo2]

I left there, (eagerly) at age 17, almost 60 years ago. Other than a cousin and her husband (in our age group) who, due to family obligations, are now too old to relocate, (and other than the fact that I don't want to see any of our investments disrupted).....I pretty much feel the same as I did looking out the airplane window as our final flight took off from Riyadh.

 

[Peter]

Ditto

Ditto x2.


Many things in the UK have changed for the better since I left 42 years ago. Mostly due, directly or indirectly, to EU membership. In my opinion.

 

[mpeirce]

I'm not a betting person, but this I would bet on, a national re vote, as stated in my previous posts here. Three months is plenty of time.

One issue with a three month delay is that it pushes Brexit past the EU elections in May. If that happens the EU will have to contend with a fair number of British anti-EU MEPs in Brussels/Strasburg.

It also feeds into the already existing impression that the EU encourages revotes until the "correct" answer comes up. Of course the revotes stop at that point.

 

[Montecfo]

They need the hard exit now so they can negotiate a new deal with EU on equal terms.

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t think there is going to be a hard exit.

It’s been an interesting process.

 

[DrRoy]

They also voted on a second referendum. It failed by the largest margin of any of the votes.

 

[MichaelB]

I don’t think there is going to be a hard exit.

It’s been an interesting process.

I agree with both statements. Not often have we been able to observe the “sausage making” in such detail.

What really matters IMO is not whether they stay or leave, but whether the UK can develop and execute policies to take max economic advantage of whatever they choose.

 

[Montecfo]

I can't really handicap outcomes. But their position now is as a hostage. Their negotiating position would improve if they left with no deal, as I see it.

Then they become the EU's potential new trade partner.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

They also voted on a second referendum. It failed by the largest margin of any of the votes.

They have not yet had a second referendum, only house votes (MPs).

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I think this is much like the early days of what became the United States.

The US started as a confederacy, not a union. Didn't work out well at all and was subsequently replaced by a much more integrated Union governed by a much more robust set of rules and a more muscular federal role. The Civil War, triggered by cultural and financial tensions, pushed the question of whether states could "check out" of the union to the absolute maximum. Answer? Uh, no. You cannot leave.

What we're seeing in Europe is a variation on that same theme. The EU started as a rather loose set of integrations to avoid massive war (as someone else pointed out earlier). Over the years more rules and regs were added but the EU has a fundamentally weak central legislature that lacks direct election of representatives. So everything really happens through the bureaucracy and regulation rather than true laws, which badly undermines consent and discussion. Sprinkle in a non-mandatory central currency with almost zero central fiscal planning, no common defense, and some pretty different cultural and foreign policy viewpoints and you get something that is unstable.

The financial problems in Greece, the immigration crises, etc. in many way spring from this structure.

If Brexit exposes a practical "you can't leave" aspect of the EU, then things will either bend towards a tighter, true union and/or get very ugly.

I predict the latter first and then the former to follow.

I don't think we'll see cruise missiles flying across the English channel, but we may see the economic equivalent for a time. I hope not tho.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I really do not think those that voted for Brexit expected the facts to come rolling in or examined the ramifications prior to their emotional vote. Now a lot of the Medical Professionals are leaving the country, leaving the NHS under staffed. Some immigration is actually good for a country. Not all immigrants are refugees, some are in fact better educated than some of the citizens of their target countries.

 

[jim584672]

John Bercow won't permit a third vote on May's deal since it is out of order. Nine days to go... Should be most interesting to watch.

 

[BigNick]

I'm not a betting person, but this I would bet on, a national re vote, as stated in my previous posts here. Three months is plenty of time.

It isn't plenty of time. The original referendum took ten months to organise. There would have to be a bunch of legislation to make it possible, and there would be unending debates about what the options should be. If the deal is voted down, should the UK remain in the EU as at present or leave without a deal? What do you do if a three-way referendum ends up 42-35-23?

Right now the default situation is for the UK to leave without a deal. It can ask for an extension, but that will come with a lot of strings attached. If those aren't acceptable then it could come down to a vote with two days before the deadline, to leave with no deal or revoke the letter of intention to leave. One would be economically catastrophic, the other would be politically catastrophic. And even if the UK remains, it will take many, many years to rebuild trust with other EU members.

I'm British, but fortunately (a) I don't live in the UK, (b) I have an Irish passport courtesy of my father's parents who had the great good sense to be born in Co Donegal in 1888 and Co Down in 1884, and (c) DW is most of the way through the process of getting French nationality. So I can afford to take a relaxed view of the most appalling political cluster.... anyone can remember.

 

[audreyh1]

OK: This is too funny!

Politico reported the other day that the French European affairs minister, Nathalie Loiseau, had named her cat “Brexit.” Loiseau told the Journal du Dimanche that she chose the name because “he wakes me up every morning meowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out.”

FYI - it's an opinion piece https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/brexit-news.html

 

[braumeister]

The problem, at least with cats, is that as soon as they go out (or in) the door, they usually immediately want to go back the other way.

They simply want to be on the OTHER side of the door.

Based on the wailing and gnashing of teeth that has been going on in Britain for the last few years, I suspect the sentiment is quite similar.

 

[Koogie]

To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

 

[Nemo2]

To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

Damn that Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah - there, I said it.

 

[Rianne]

I no longer have an opinion on this topic. Ants are more organized than this cluster *uc*

 

[Mdlerth]

Yes and No, Prime Minister

I no longer have an opinion on this topic. Ants are more organized than this cluster *uc*

I don't offer an opinion on Brexit itself, but its entertainment value is worthy of Sir Humphrey Appleby. I wonder if the fuster cluck is deliberate strategy by politicians on both sides of Parliament who are trying to "never let a crisis go to waste".

Suppose an MP (Tory or Labor, makes no difference) had publicly declared his support for letting the people decide, but privately disagreed with the result of the vote. He might consider the best strategy to be to obstruct the negotiation process and blame the folks on the other bench. It could fortify his reputation with his own constituents as fighting to represent their views, thus securing his own re-election. It also could ensure Brexit will be so painful that it will be reversed within a few years by another referendum.

It's a relief to know that we have only honest, straightforward leaders here in the Land of the Free.

 

[MichaelB]

Brexit shows us just how difficult some things can be, even when they’re easy to promise. That it’s taking this long is positive IMO; its not something to rush into, as the consequences can be great. The need to build a majority of support among elected officials is also positive, and for once they seem to be extra-careful. If this leads to an outcome that has elements of compromise, even better.