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Old 03-16-2019, 05:48 AM   #61
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They also voted on a second referendum. It failed by the largest margin of any of the votes.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:33 AM   #62
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I don’t think there is going to be a hard exit.

It’s been an interesting process.
I agree with both statements. Not often have we been able to observe the “sausage making” in such detail.

What really matters IMO is not whether they stay or leave, but whether the UK can develop and execute policies to take max economic advantage of whatever they choose.
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Old 03-16-2019, 06:46 AM   #63
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I can't really handicap outcomes. But their position now is as a hostage. Their negotiating position would improve if they left with no deal, as I see it.

Then they become the EU's potential new trade partner.
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Old 03-16-2019, 07:10 AM   #64
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They also voted on a second referendum. It failed by the largest margin of any of the votes.
They have not yet had a second referendum, only house votes (MPs).
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Old 03-16-2019, 07:45 AM   #65
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I think this is much like the early days of what became the United States.

The US started as a confederacy, not a union. Didn't work out well at all and was subsequently replaced by a much more integrated Union governed by a much more robust set of rules and a more muscular federal role. The Civil War, triggered by cultural and financial tensions, pushed the question of whether states could "check out" of the union to the absolute maximum. Answer? Uh, no. You cannot leave.

What we're seeing in Europe is a variation on that same theme. The EU started as a rather loose set of integrations to avoid massive war (as someone else pointed out earlier). Over the years more rules and regs were added but the EU has a fundamentally weak central legislature that lacks direct election of representatives. So everything really happens through the bureaucracy and regulation rather than true laws, which badly undermines consent and discussion. Sprinkle in a non-mandatory central currency with almost zero central fiscal planning, no common defense, and some pretty different cultural and foreign policy viewpoints and you get something that is unstable.

The financial problems in Greece, the immigration crises, etc. in many way spring from this structure.

If Brexit exposes a practical "you can't leave" aspect of the EU, then things will either bend towards a tighter, true union and/or get very ugly.

I predict the latter first and then the former to follow.

I don't think we'll see cruise missiles flying across the English channel, but we may see the economic equivalent for a time. I hope not tho.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:38 AM   #66
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I really do not think those that voted for Brexit expected the facts to come rolling in or examined the ramifications prior to their emotional vote. Now a lot of the Medical Professionals are leaving the country, leaving the NHS under staffed. Some immigration is actually good for a country. Not all immigrants are refugees, some are in fact better educated than some of the citizens of their target countries.
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Old 03-18-2019, 11:45 AM   #67
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John Bercow won't permit a third vote on May's deal since it is out of order. Nine days to go... Should be most interesting to watch.
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Old 03-18-2019, 12:19 PM   #68
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I'm not a betting person, but this I would bet on, a national re vote, as stated in my previous posts here. Three months is plenty of time.
It isn't plenty of time. The original referendum took ten months to organise. There would have to be a bunch of legislation to make it possible, and there would be unending debates about what the options should be. If the deal is voted down, should the UK remain in the EU as at present or leave without a deal? What do you do if a three-way referendum ends up 42-35-23?

Right now the default situation is for the UK to leave without a deal. It can ask for an extension, but that will come with a lot of strings attached. If those aren't acceptable then it could come down to a vote with two days before the deadline, to leave with no deal or revoke the letter of intention to leave. One would be economically catastrophic, the other would be politically catastrophic. And even if the UK remains, it will take many, many years to rebuild trust with other EU members.

I'm British, but fortunately (a) I don't live in the UK, (b) I have an Irish passport courtesy of my father's parents who had the great good sense to be born in Co Donegal in 1888 and Co Down in 1884, and (c) DW is most of the way through the process of getting French nationality. So I can afford to take a relaxed view of the most appalling political cluster.... anyone can remember.
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:20 AM   #69
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OK: This is too funny!

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Politico reported the other day that the French European affairs minister, Nathalie Loiseau, had named her cat “Brexit.” Loiseau told the Journal du Dimanche that she chose the name because “he wakes me up every morning meowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out.”
FYI - it's an opinion piece https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/o...exit-news.html
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Old 04-03-2019, 08:27 AM   #70
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The problem, at least with cats, is that as soon as they go out (or in) the door, they usually immediately want to go back the other way.

They simply want to be on the OTHER side of the door.

Based on the wailing and gnashing of teeth that has been going on in Britain for the last few years, I suspect the sentiment is quite similar.
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Old 04-03-2019, 11:34 AM   #71
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To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

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Old 04-03-2019, 11:50 AM   #72
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To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

Damn that Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah - there, I said it.
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Old 04-04-2019, 08:11 AM   #73
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I no longer have an opinion on this topic. Ants are more organized than this cluster *uc*
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Old 04-04-2019, 09:09 AM   #74
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Yes and No, Prime Minister

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I no longer have an opinion on this topic. Ants are more organized than this cluster *uc*
I don't offer an opinion on Brexit itself, but its entertainment value is worthy of Sir Humphrey Appleby. I wonder if the fuster cluck is deliberate strategy by politicians on both sides of Parliament who are trying to "never let a crisis go to waste".

Suppose an MP (Tory or Labor, makes no difference) had publicly declared his support for letting the people decide, but privately disagreed with the result of the vote. He might consider the best strategy to be to obstruct the negotiation process and blame the folks on the other bench. It could fortify his reputation with his own constituents as fighting to represent their views, thus securing his own re-election. It also could ensure Brexit will be so painful that it will be reversed within a few years by another referendum.

It's a relief to know that we have only honest, straightforward leaders here in the Land of the Free.
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Old 04-04-2019, 09:42 AM   #75
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Brexit shows us just how difficult some things can be, even when they’re easy to promise. That it’s taking this long is positive IMO; its not something to rush into, as the consequences can be great. The need to build a majority of support among elected officials is also positive, and for once they seem to be extra-careful. If this leads to an outcome that has elements of compromise, even better.
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Old 04-04-2019, 12:08 PM   #76
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Brexit shows us just how difficult some things can be, even when they’re easy to promise. ...
Yup, like getting your neighbor to pay for your fence.
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Old 04-04-2019, 01:57 PM   #77
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To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

I'm not sure which messages you find partisan? But I suppose asking for clarification would potentially bring on more partisan messages?

Or did posting the joke at the expense of England's predicament appear partisan?
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Old 04-04-2019, 03:25 PM   #78
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To clarify, American politics are off limits on this forum but it is okay for people to post partisan messages regarding politics in other countries ?

If you believe you've seen an overly political post made, regardless of country, by all means hit the report button and explain what you see to alert the moderator team so we can review. PS, our mod team currently includes at least one Brit.
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Old 04-05-2019, 07:31 AM   #79
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Brexit is a partisan issue. Just because Americans don't understand it doesn't make it less so.

So when you have people posting if they are for or against it, they are taking a partisan stand. It also doesn't help that a couple of posts have denigrated people who voted for Brexit as being "less informed" or that they didn't "know what they were doing" when they voted.

If we were to make similar analogies about the voters in your 2016 election....
the thread wouldn't last long.
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Old 04-05-2019, 08:08 AM   #80
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Issues don’t choose political parties, but parties do align around issues. Many US issues that have significant political implication are regularly discussed here. It becomes a problem when the discussion drifts from the issue to the politics.

Brexit is not a partisan issue, as both pro and con have followers and members of all major parties.
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