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Understanding Brexit
Old 12-13-2018, 07:29 AM   #1
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Understanding Brexit

Yes... not a direct connection, but most assuredly an event that will have far reaching consequences in the world markets.

Am I the only one who does not comprehend the scope of the decision?

After reading ... yes.. for several hours, to try and understand the complexities of this coming event, I am still at square one. There are 28 countries in the European Union, each with a somewhat different interest in the union. Whether the monetary system, border access, taxes, language, or any of a dozen more interactions... what was working, is now up for grabs.

I cannot understand why diplomacy has broken down to the point that negotiations are a thing of the past.

Seems as if our US politicians understand the situation. I used to think I was at least as smart as them, but now realize it must be me.

Does anyone know of a relatively simple online explanation of what's happening, that also points up those roadblocks that keep the problem from resolution.?
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Old 12-13-2018, 07:46 AM   #2
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Thank you for this post! I love the way they argue in harmony, all at once, screaming opposing opinions. I think that's why no one understands what the heck is going on. Theresa May is one tough cookie. I have no idea what she stands for or who she agrees with. I don't know who is coming and who is going. The only thing I think I understand is some Brits want to be their own economy not beholding to the EU regulations or standards. But then, they can't travel freely among other European countries.
This article helps, I think!
https://qz.com/1153966/britain-rejec...-its-new-life/
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Old 12-13-2018, 08:15 AM   #3
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Good post. I don't completely understand Brexit 100% either, but I have some kind of an idea. If we think of Europe as all separate countries prior to the EU, that might help. Then because of concerns about Europe's far East neighbors as well as concerns elsewhere from other areas around the World , concern about being economically competitive and fear of being militarily threatened, Germany, France, etc,; decided that they needed to band together for security both on a military level as well as economic level.








So the EU was created. I'm guessing that somewhere along the line, citizens of England decided they didn't like being told what to do from Brussels. So they voted for Brexit, not realizing how long and hard of a process it would be or the consequences of doing so. { I have no opinion on whether Brexit is good or bad.} So now Theresa May is trying to negotiate a way forward from here, and so far it's not going well. That is my take on it.


How to separate power from the EU is probably the sticking point in negotiations. Is England able to both militarily and economically stand on its own? If the answer is yes, then negotiating is easier. Just make a clean break. If it's not, then it will be a long, slow process, that could take years or never completely happen at all.
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Old 12-13-2018, 08:48 AM   #4
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Think of it this way: It can take years to finalize a divorce between 2 people. Here, we are talking about a divorce between two large geopolitical entities after a 45 year marriage (the UK joined the EU in 1973)! It was supposed to be a marriage for life, so there was no prenup and there is no blue print for a divorce of this kind. And there are billions of dollars on the line (plus the very sensitive question of the Irish border).

Just like for any separation after a long marriage, there is a lot to unwind, there are many sticking points and it gets messy at times. Sometimes ex-partners have unreasonable demands, tempers flare up, and the dialog breaks down. If it's a contentious separation, the negotiations can drag on for years (the 2-year time frame to negotiate an exit from the EU always seemed ludicrous to me). At this point, we have to let the technocrats sort it out.
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Old 12-13-2018, 09:07 AM   #5
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EU was formed to open trade and borders. Travel is much simpler. Then like the U.S. we have states that flourish and states that don't. States that consider themselves strong like California don't like contributing money to help subsidize weak states (take your pick). They start talking about succession from the Republic. However, they want to continue to sell their goods and have people come in and take advantage of their good weather. (e.g. Italy and Greece vs UK and Germany)

How do you break it up? Now you will have to go through many more hoops to bring goods into the UK and vice versa. Travel will have hard borders instead of free flow of goods and services. Will tariff's be set?

If the vote wasn't so close this would be much quicker but we've seen the tide turn and recently the EU ruled that there can be another vote to nullify the earlier vote. This is a complete mess and I wouldn't in any way want to be May trying to negotiate this.
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Old 12-13-2018, 09:19 AM   #6
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EU was formed to open trade and borders. Travel is much simpler. Then like the U.S. we have states that flourish and states that don't. States that consider themselves strong like California don't like contributing money to help subsidize weak states (take your pick). They start talking about succession from the Republic. However, they want to continue to sell their goods and have people come in and take advantage of their good weather. (e.g. Italy and Greece vs UK and Germany)

How do you break it up? Now you will have to go through many more hoops to bring goods into the UK and vice versa. Travel will have hard borders instead of free flow of goods and services. Will tariff's be set?

If the vote wasn't so close this would be much quicker but we've seen the tide turn and recently the EU ruled that there can be another vote to nullify the earlier vote. This is a complete mess and I wouldn't in any way want to be May trying to negotiate this.
I have to respectfully disagree. The EU was not formed to open borders. I think it was partially about trade. The EU was primarily formed for security reasons. The original six nations who formed it, wanted protection from the aggression from the East, both on a military and economical level. They were very mindful of what happened in WW2. They didn't want to become subjects of another superpower.


They wanted protection from that. So the EU was formed. The opening up of borders came afterwards and developed as ties became stronger between the EU member states, but that was not the reason the EU was formed.
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Old 12-13-2018, 10:15 AM   #7
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Here's a nice summary from the BBC:

Brexit: Your simple guide to the UK leaving the EU
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:19 AM   #8
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Does anyone know of a relatively simple online explanation of what's happening, that also points up those roadblocks that keep the problem from resolution.?
One of the biggest road blocks is Ireland, which is part of the EU but is its own country and therefore not leaving the EU when GB leaves. But Ireland shares a long border with England and it is largely unguarded and unfenced. In fact it snakes through the middle of some towns. But if Ireland is in the EU and England is not, there is a really high potential for smuggling to happen. Neither England nor Ireland want to install a border but I believe the EU is demanding it. It is turning into a big problem.

There are a raft of other problems due to how entangled England's economy has become with that of the EU. It is going to be a big shock, and already is, when they separate. All because the Brits dislike immigrants. Familiar story?
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:41 AM   #9
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One of the biggest road blocks is Ireland, which is part of the EU but is its own country and therefore not leaving the EU when GB leaves. But Ireland shares a long border with England and it is largely unguarded and unfenced. In fact it snakes through the middle of some towns. But if Ireland is in the EU and England is not, there is a really high potential for smuggling to happen. Neither England nor Ireland want to install a border but I believe the EU is demanding it. It is turning into a big problem.

There are a raft of other problems due to how entangled England's economy has become with that of the EU. It is going to be a big shock, and already is, when they separate. All because the Brits dislike immigrants. Familiar story?
The border in question is between Ireland which is an independent nation and Northern Ireland which is still part of the UK. Thatís a hornets nest you donít want to be poking. Itís been relatively quiet for 20+ years.

It will be a shock if it goes through. The EU will want to make it painful so that other countries donít follow suit.
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:41 AM   #10
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My little bit of knowledge I got while living in London for a bit over a year..


Most Brit hate the EU... their rules do not make sense to them... as an example there was one grocer who had his products in pounds and ounces... it was taken to the EU court and he was fined heavily for not changing to the metric system... I read a number of articles like this back then...


Also, UK never did change their money... if they wanted to go all in they would have changed the the Euro... so the UK was in there for convenience but many people did not see it that way...


I was surprised how many people in the UK told me they would rather be the 51st state of the USA as opposed to being in the EU...




My take on the problem is that the EU is still trying to have control over the UK in their agreement and there still is a majority that does not want the EU to have any control over it...


I think that a hard Brexit would be the best way to go and then negotiate from a position of strength than give up so much to the EU right now... there is no way the EU will not be able to trade with the UK as it is one of the biggest economies in the EU right now...
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Old 12-13-2018, 11:51 AM   #11
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there was one grocer who had his products in pounds and ounces... it was taken to the EU court and he was fined heavily for not changing to the metric system... I read a number of articles like this back then...
Also, UK never did change their money...
Plenty of that nonsense even today. The roadways are still marked in miles, not kilometers, and speed limits are set in mph. Also hard to go into a pub and order 568 ml of bitter.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:20 PM   #12
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... Ireland shares a long border with England
Nope.
Ireland shares a border with the UK.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:35 PM   #13
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Here's a nice summary from the BBC:

Brexit: Your simple guide to the UK leaving the EU
Thanks for the summary. I drilled down in a couple of the areas for more information. Admittedly I know nothing on the subject. But the entire time I was reading the info I kept thinking how much of life's problems are really man made and noise. Good luck to all involved. Now back to ER.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:44 PM   #14
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Nope.
Ireland shares a border with the UK.
Yes, thank you for the clarification.
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:45 PM   #15
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Nope.
Ireland shares a border with the UK.
To make this even more confusing (sorry)
Ireland shares a border with Northern Ireland (which is a province of the UK)
England, Scotland, and Wales are countries..

UK: the collective of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

All a little confusing to me, but I guess there is a lot of history there.
If I am wrong, I am sure someone will correct me.
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:06 PM   #16
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More fun reading
https://www.gov.im/about-the-governm...-device=Mobile
and
https://www.gov.gg/Brexit
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:29 PM   #17
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The NI / ROI border cuts through farms and is really impossible to create a hard border with. The peace process call for no hard border. With a no deal Brexit a border becomes needed and this may blow up the peace process. May's deal creates a mini customs union between NI / ROI. This is unacceptable to the DUP (the party that keeps May in power) because they are hard Unionists and they insist that the whole of the UK be treated the same. The whole thing is a giant mess.
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:33 PM   #18
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One of the biggest road blocks is Ireland, which is part of the EU but is its own country and therefore not leaving the EU when GB leaves. But Ireland shares a long border with England and it is largely unguarded and unfenced. In fact it snakes through the middle of some towns. But if Ireland is in the EU and England is not, there is a really high potential for smuggling to happen. Neither England nor Ireland want to install a border but I believe the EU is demanding it. It is turning into a big problem.
Referred to as "The Backstop".
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Old 12-13-2018, 01:44 PM   #19
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All because the Brits dislike immigrants. Familiar story?
Defamatory, simplistic and incorrect.
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Old 12-13-2018, 02:02 PM   #20
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It's hard to understand because it's a complex issue.

Some people for Brexit (voted to "leave") did so because of loss of sovereignty (basically nationalism or British patriotism), others because of EU regulation overload, others because there are lots of non-brits who have come to the UK to live and work (or not).

Many of the remainers (voted to "remain" in the EU) did so because they like being European (anti-nationalism), appreciate the EU forcing the UK to do various things, and others like that they can move around most of Europe w/o a passport (and maybe have vacation homes in Spain or Greece or somewhere else warm).

If you look at the geographic distribution if the leavers/remainers it's classic urban vs suburban/rural divide we see a lot of in the US. Also the Scots who want independence from the UK seems to think that is saved by remaining in the EU.

I liked this map: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...main-Land.html

If you really want to follow it read some of their newspapers (they have more and more varied newspapers than we have in the US). Also streaming talk radio is interesting. LBC for example has shows hosted by both sides: Nigel Farage (a founder of UKIP a party founded to promote Brexit) and James O'Brien who loves to tell everyone who is for Brexit how stupid they are.

And finally there are different shades of Brexit. Nard Brexit or "no-deal" Brexit means just leave - renegotiating trade deals and such later. "Deal" or PM May's agreement with EU that technically leaves the EU, but keeps the open border with Ireland (the "backstop") and the customs union with the EU among other things - Many Brexiters think this isn't really Brexit.

Part of the problem they have is that the various Parliamentary parties are divided over Brexit. UKIP (the pro-Brexit party) has no power in Parliament. While the Tory and Labor parties are mostly anti-Brexit - but not completely.

Yes, complicated.
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