Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
What to do between now and the 2012 election (and after)
Old 07-11-2012, 11:09 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
prototype's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 173
What to do between now and the 2012 election (and after)

I was curious as to what people are doing investment wise given the upcoming election. I am basically sitting tight on current AA other than a few minor tweaks.

Does it really matter who wins the presidential election as far as AA and future drawdown strategies go? What about if the Dems take back the House? Or the Republicans take the Senate and keep the House?

I am just curious to hear from some of our knowledgeable and experienced early retirees.
__________________

__________________
prototype is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-11-2012, 11:18 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
I'm experienced but not knowledgeable. In any event I will sit tight, rebalance when need be and enjoy my retirement. I'm passed the point of worrying about all the BS in the world and what will happen to the market. After the 2008 09 mess I can live with about anything.
__________________

__________________
Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 12:00 AM   #3
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 4,929
Nothing.

The effect of replacing or not replacing the President is so small it isn't worth worrying about. Fiscal policy for the federal government is set by the House of Representatives, subject to Senate passage and Presidential approval or veto. The odds that all three of these (including a supermajority in the Senate) will be in agreement on anything significant is infinitesimal, and anything they could agree on will be mostly harmless with respect to the economy.

The only risk, and a remote one, would be a move to austerity while the economy is already slow. This would produce an artificial recession. (See Europe.)

I haven't changed my view since last year...
Quote:
Non-political economists (the ones you never hear about, and who don't get invited in TV) don't see GDP growth getting up to the 3.5-4% range until late 2015 to 2016, and unemployment remaining above 6% until 2016. Those are consensus numbers. The 'Blue Chip' numbers (August 2011 Blue Chip Consensus Forecast extended with March 2011 Blue Chip long-run survey of 50 private sector forecasts) has real GDP chugging along at around 2.6-3.1% til 2021 (it doesn't go past that...), and unemployment over 6% til 2017.

Most of this is due simply to the impact of the balance sheet recession and the sheer amount of time it takes to pay consumer and commercial debt back down from the highs of 2007 (300% of GDP) to the longer term level around 50% of GDP. Various proposed federal fiscal policies and programs move the GDP growth number up or down by about 0.4% and unemployment number by about 1%.
__________________
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 07:37 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,433
Staying the course. No changes. Sticking to target AA and will rebalance as needed if actual AA deviates significantly from target.
__________________
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 10:04 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 19th Hole
Posts: 2,532
Placing my bets on pork futures !
__________________
A totally unblemished life is only for saints.
frayne is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 10:22 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DFW_M5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,982
I'm praying, but reality is probably somewhere between a wing and a prayer that moderate heads will surface and prevail.
__________________
DFW_M5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:07 AM   #7
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,460
Lets keep the discussion focused on investing.
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:30 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bimmerbill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,631
Same as I always do, nothing. Bi-weekly payments go into my 401K as usual.
__________________
Bimmerbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:36 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,976
No change in my AA related to the elections...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:43 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
Just following my normal investment plan. Buy if prices move lower, sell if they are higher. I don't expect to do anything significant.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:57 AM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
antmary's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Northern California
Posts: 542
Nothing...other than stick with my AA. I'm too busy smelling the roses
__________________
antmary is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2012, 12:57 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,705
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

I doubt if who is in control matters.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2012, 01:34 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
obgyn65's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 4,061
Nothing as far as my AA is concerned.
__________________
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
obgyn65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2012, 12:02 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,890
What? There is an election this year?

That's my approach...to ignore and just stick to my AA and rebalance when appropriate regardless of election or other events.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2012, 12:47 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 125
Our investment decisions aren't based on the political climate any more than the news on CNBC. We won't be making any changes based on the outcome of the election.

So, we'll rebalance when one component of our AA changes by more than 5%.
__________________
dmdunca44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2012, 01:44 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Continue building up my dividends. No change from any other time.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2012, 07:09 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
I watch the election innies and outies like a hawk and do nothing. I occasionally watch my AA and when equities get over 55% I sell same and buy some bonds. Conversely when equities drop below 45% I would buy more equities but that hasn't happened yet. Come to think of it it has never happened during my entire investing career (since 1987) that my equities allocation would go below target and I would sell bonds to buy equities. That's trying to tell me something but I dunno what.
__________________
ejman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2012, 07:44 PM   #18
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,890
Like the others above, I will do nothing differently...

...other than perhaps post a "Wheee!" at some point, if/when it is merited.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2012, 07:51 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Like the others above, I will do nothing differently...

...other than perhaps post a "Wheee!" at some point, if/when it is merited.

Now you stay off of that "wheee!" you hear!!!!!!!!!!!
__________________
ejman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2012, 08:31 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Nothing different as far as investing for now. Just hope our house sells soon. Being in the DC area means there's a lot more anxiety than most of the country in an election year.

Talks about budget cuts could significantly impact the local economy and DH and I will keep a close eye on that for sure. Might get a bit more aggressive on pricing if the place doesn't move soon.
__________________

__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:31 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.