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What to do between now and the 2012 election (and after)
07-11-2012, 10:09 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 62
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What to do between now and the 2012 election (and after)
I was curious as to what people are doing investment wise given the upcoming election. I am basically sitting tight on current AA other than a few minor tweaks.
Does it really matter who wins the presidential election as far as AA and future drawdown strategies go? What about if the Dems take back the House? Or the Republicans take the Senate and keep the House?
I am just curious to hear from some of our knowledgeable and experienced early retirees.
__________________
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. (quote: Albert Einstein)
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07-11-2012, 10:18 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
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I'm experienced but not knowledgeable. In any event I will sit tight, rebalance when need be and enjoy my retirement. I'm passed the point of worrying about all the BS in the world and what will happen to the market. After the 2008 09 mess I can live with about anything.
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Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
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07-11-2012, 11:00 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,990
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Nothing.
The effect of replacing or not replacing the President is so small it isn't worth worrying about. Fiscal policy for the federal government is set by the House of Representatives, subject to Senate passage and Presidential approval or veto. The odds that all three of these (including a supermajority in the Senate) will be in agreement on anything significant is infinitesimal, and anything they could agree on will be mostly harmless with respect to the economy.
The only risk, and a remote one, would be a move to austerity while the economy is already slow. This would produce an artificial recession. (See Europe.)
I haven't changed my view since last year...
 Quote:
Non-political economists (the ones you never hear about, and who don't get invited in TV) don't see GDP growth getting up to the 3.5-4% range until late 2015 to 2016, and unemployment remaining above 6% until 2016. Those are consensus numbers. The 'Blue Chip' numbers (August 2011 Blue Chip Consensus Forecast extended with March 2011 Blue Chip long-run survey of 50 private sector forecasts) has real GDP chugging along at around 2.6-3.1% til 2021 (it doesn't go past that...), and unemployment over 6% til 2017.
Most of this is due simply to the impact of the balance sheet recession and the sheer amount of time it takes to pay consumer and commercial debt back down from the highs of 2007 (300% of GDP) to the longer term level around 50% of GDP. Various proposed federal fiscal policies and programs move the GDP growth number up or down by about 0.4% and unemployment number by about 1%.
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__________________
"Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor." - Dr. Zoidberg
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07-12-2012, 06:37 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 3,727
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Staying the course. No changes. Sticking to target AA and will rebalance as needed if actual AA deviates significantly from target.
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07-12-2012, 09:04 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 1,257
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Placing my bets on pork futures !
__________________
The only thing a golfer needs is more daylight.
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07-12-2012, 09:22 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 2,254
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I'm praying, but reality is probably somewhere between a wing and a prayer that moderate heads will surface and prevail.
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07-12-2012, 10:07 AM
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#7
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: The northernmost tip of Latin America
Posts: 10,591
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Lets keep the discussion focused on investing. 
__________________
It's not the cards you're dealt in life but what you do with them that matters
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07-12-2012, 10:30 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,628
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Same as I always do, nothing. Bi-weekly payments go into my 401K as usual.
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07-12-2012, 10:36 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 7,188
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No change in my AA related to the elections...
__________________
It's a pity to waste your life living the same tiny day over and over again. James Taylor
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 55% equity funds / 40% bond funds / 5% cash
approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Target WR: approx 2.5%
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07-12-2012, 10:43 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,980
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Just following my normal investment plan. Buy if prices move lower, sell if they are higher. I don't expect to do anything significant.
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07-12-2012, 10:57 AM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Northern California
Posts: 435
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Nothing...other than stick with my AA. I'm too busy smelling the roses 
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07-12-2012, 11:57 PM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Beverly Farms MA
Posts: 675
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Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
I doubt if who is in control matters.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
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07-13-2012, 12:34 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 3,489
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Nothing as far as my AA is concerned.
__________________
Not ER'd yet, 47 years old, about 98-99% cash, CDs, munis, sizeable nest egg, WR < 3.5%, pensions, annuities, no debt, and 48-year planning horizon. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
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07-13-2012, 11:02 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,404
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What? There is an election this year? 
That's my approach...to ignore and just stick to my AA and rebalance when appropriate regardless of election or other events.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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07-13-2012, 11:47 AM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 107
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Our investment decisions aren't based on the political climate any more than the news on CNBC. We won't be making any changes based on the outcome of the election.
So, we'll rebalance when one component of our AA changes by more than 5%.
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07-13-2012, 12:44 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,423
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Continue building up my dividends. No change from any other time.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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07-14-2012, 06:09 PM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 898
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I watch the election innies and outies like a hawk and do nothing. I occasionally watch my AA and when equities get over 55% I sell same and buy some bonds. Conversely when equities drop below 45% I would buy more equities but that hasn't happened yet. Come to think of it it has never happened during my entire investing career (since 1987) that my equities allocation would go below target and I would sell bonds to buy equities. That's trying to tell me something but I dunno what.
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07-14-2012, 06:44 PM
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#18
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 24,578
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Like the others above, I will do nothing differently...
...other than perhaps post a "Wheee!" at some point, if/when it is merited. 
__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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07-14-2012, 06:51 PM
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#19
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 898
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Now you stay off of that "wheee!" you hear!!!!!!!!!!!
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07-14-2012, 07:31 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,536
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Nothing different as far as investing for now. Just hope our house sells soon. Being in the DC area means there's a lot more anxiety than most of the country in an election year.
Talks about budget cuts could significantly impact the local economy and DH and I will keep a close eye on that for sure. Might get a bit more aggressive on pricing if the place doesn't move soon.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
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