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What's the group's view on the US economy?
Old 12-17-2011, 01:36 PM   #1
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What's the group's view on the US economy?

me, look at my screen name + i wear a tin foil hat 24/7 so you know where my head is at. like to hear your thoughts.
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Old 12-17-2011, 01:50 PM   #2
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<tinfoil hat on> Isn't it obvious, we're doomed. Everything is screwed up, nothing works right, everyone is out of a job, in debt, or being foreclosed on. The government is riddled with corruption and graft, the big cats on Wall Street control our lives and the only way to make a living is get on the bandwagon with the millions who make a living cheating the taxpayer.

Some think it wise to stockpile gold, ammunition, and MRE's, but I know that's a fools view of the future since survival will be impossible. The flu virus is mutating and will kill off most of the human race, what remains will be eaten by a global warming explosion of scorpions, chiggers, ticks and rattlesnakes. <tinfoil hat off>
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Old 12-17-2011, 01:53 PM   #3
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Non-political economists (the ones you never hear about, and who don't get invited in TV) don't see GDP growth getting up to the 3.5-4% range until late 2015 to 2016, and unemployment remaining above 6% until 2016. Those are consensus numbers. The 'Blue Chip' numbers (August 2011 Blue Chip Consensus Forecast extended with March 2011 Blue Chip long-run survey of 50 private sector forecasts) has real GDP chugging along at around 2.6-3.1% til 2021 (it doesn't go past that...), and unemployment over 6% til 2017.

Most of this is due simply to the impact of the balance sheet recession and the sheer amount of time it takes to pay consumer and commercial debt back down from the highs of 2007 (300% of GDP) to the longer term level around 50% of GDP. Various proposed federal fiscal policies and programs move the GDP growth number up or down by about 0.4% and unemployment number by about 1%.

This will be a long haul, through what is fundamentally an economic upheaval. One can ignore all the political lip service safely. While the politicians love to claim responsibility for any good news, and blame The Other Guys for any bad news, they are actually almost powerless to have any real effect. About all they can do is make selected groups in the population a little more or less comfortable while the economy works off the structural imbalances.

Invictus over at The Big Picture blog got to the November Fed data before I did, and worked up a good summary and set of illustrative charts, which include likely and possible ranges of economic data moving forward.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11...d-slow-growth/
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Old 12-17-2011, 01:55 PM   #4
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Who knows? I still remember back in 1990s and well into the 2000s when many economists were predicting very low unemployment starting around 2010 as all the boomers start retiring in droves. Oops.
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Old 12-17-2011, 01:57 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
<tinfoil hat on>
Some think it wise to stockpile gold, ammunition, and MRE's, but I know that's a fools view of the future since survival will be impossible. The flu virus is mutating and will kill off most of the human race, what remains will be eaten by a global warming explosion of scorpions, chiggers, ticks and rattlesnakes. <tinfoil hat off>
So, when the rest of us Earthicans are gone, the Texans and their native ecology will inherit the Earth. Good to know.

I'll be out back practicing my "yee-haw!". ;-)
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Old 12-17-2011, 02:29 PM   #6
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This came from a recent Barrons article:

"The mean prediction of the 10 stock-market strategists and investment managers surveyed by Barron's is that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will end 2012 at about 1360, some 11.5% higher than Friday's close of 1220. ..."

If congress and europe get fixed it might even be better than that, but those are big ifs
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Old 12-17-2011, 03:56 PM   #7
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It is getting better. It is just about out of the ridiculously bad range, and entering into the uncomfortable range. It should be in the good range in a couple years and maybe will even hit the roaring range at some point after that. The economy seems to perpetually have a wave-like motion.
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Old 12-17-2011, 04:24 PM   #8
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2012 worse than 2011, and a slow climb from there, I hope.
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Old 12-17-2011, 04:58 PM   #9
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The nightly news has been making noises about the improved Christmas sales numbers, so people will believe a recovery is coming so then they will... Oh heck i don't know what will happen.
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Old 12-17-2011, 05:36 PM   #10
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I posted, on another site some time back, that it looks as if the Industrial Revolution is over......and our side lost.

The huge factory jobs, employing many, many unskilled & semi-skilled people, are ISTM gone forever.......while those put out of work by the departure of the plants are futilely Waiting for Godot.
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Old 12-17-2011, 05:48 PM   #11
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The nightly news has been making noises about the improved Christmas sales numbers, so people will believe a recovery is coming so then they will... Oh heck i don't know what will happen.
It means the market for stuff Made in China is going to improve and add more manufacturing jobs in China... and perhaps a few more low-wage, no-benefit jobs to the discount retailers who sell them here.

Hate to sound like a Debbie Downer, but that's what I see.
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Old 12-17-2011, 05:56 PM   #12
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Who knows? I still remember back in 1990s and well into the 2000s when many economists were predicting very low unemployment starting around 2010 as all the boomers start retiring in droves. Oops.
+1

A few years before I retired, I mentioned my intention to retire in 2009 to some people who needed to know, while participating in a small long term planning session in D.C.

One of the responses, said in all seriousness was, "Don't you feel it is your responsibility to continue for the good of the program, given the shortage of federal employees that we project is imminent once the avalanche of baby boomer retirements begins?"

My response was "You've just GOT to be kidding."

My view of the economy is that it will go up and down, maybe more down than up, but that all those great qualities that make us Americans will come through for us and we will continue to buck the trends, beat the odds, and whatever else it is that Americans do when confronted with adversity.
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Old 12-17-2011, 06:06 PM   #13
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Helen Thomas said “Everything is going down the drain”. Must be true .
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Old 12-17-2011, 06:20 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by plex View Post
The economy seems to perpetually have a wave-like motion.
Like this? AMF !
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Old 12-17-2011, 06:35 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by REWahoo
<tinfoil hat on> ....scorpions, chiggers, ticks and rattlesnakes. <tinfoil hat off>
Only those 4? So you have an optimistic outlook for Texas.

T
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Old 12-17-2011, 07:01 PM   #16
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Life is good if you have a job or a stash and LBYM. Plenty of slack built in to adjust for the unknown variables ahead in life relative to the economy. I have over 30 years experience with the 'economy' and can zig when it zags. Health is the big unknown for me.

What is your plan 'B' when you meet the guy with 98 guns and a carbon hat?
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Old 12-17-2011, 07:57 PM   #17
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I have over 30 years experience with the 'economy' and can zig when it zags. Health is the big unknown for me.
I have almost 60 years experience in health. I can tell you with great certainty the Economy will win out in the long run!
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Old 12-17-2011, 10:05 PM   #18
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The data lately have been encouraging. I expect the economy to get back to a normalized growth trend by roughly 2015.
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Old 12-17-2011, 10:22 PM   #19
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This came from a recent Barrons article:

"The mean prediction of the 10 stock-market strategists and investment managers surveyed by Barron's is that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will end 2012 at about 1360, some 11.5% higher than Friday's close of 1220. ..."

If congress and europe get fixed it might even be better than that, but those are big ifs
Boy, I hope they are right.
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Old 12-18-2011, 05:08 AM   #20
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I have almost 60 years experience in health. I can tell you with great certainty the Economy will win out in the long run!
I agree. I will not be in the forest to hear the tree fall.
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