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Old 03-01-2009, 10:47 AM   #21
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Your "solution" is simply to have govt. get out of the way, unless I misunderstood you.
Now your talking.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:10 AM   #22
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I saw a brief segment on the news about a St Louis Tea Party that took place yesterday. I belief there is a strong grass roots effort developing to try to control a government run amuck.
Thanks for the lead. Here's a short page with pictures from some of the small protests around the country. The signs they carry are interesting--most appear to be handmade, not printed by the thousands and handed out by a central organization.

I hope this catches fire. It will eventually need some type of core element, but this is a good start.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:30 AM   #23
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RAE....I agree with what you said. I think some on this thread represent what is increasingly becoming a fringe "Herbert Hoover" movement who believe "let the chips fall where they may". It is one alternative to the current situation but I can't buy it. Luckily I don't think the country is with them on that.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:40 AM   #24
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RAE....I agree with what you said. Luckily I don't think the country is with them on that.
Well, if you are right that this is the majority opinion, then "luckily" there should be enough do-gooders to make this redistribution plan a reality without needing to make it law. Now, if all the generous people who think redistribution is great will just send in their money, this could happen today. We won't need to wait for Congress to act, we won't need to wait while new regulations are written, and we won't need to worry about fomenting a revolt from those who believe their property belongs to them. In addition to being faster, this voluntary approach comes with a huge Karma benefit--you'll have done the "right" thing voluntarily. It's a win-win, don't let the government take it from you by making a law.
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Old 03-01-2009, 11:43 AM   #25
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RAE....I agree with what you said. I think some on this thread represent what is increasingly becoming a fringe "Herbert Hoover" movement who believe "let the chips fall where they may". It is one alternative to the current situation but I can't buy it. Luckily I don't think the country is with them on that.
Actually, the country is with us on this.

Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Site.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Support for the economic recovery plan working its way through Congress has fallen again this week. For the first time, a plurality of voters nationwide oppose the $800-billion-plus plan.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 37% favor the legislation, 43% are opposed, and 20% are not sure.
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Old 03-01-2009, 12:54 PM   #26
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Hilarious.

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A recent analysis by Scott Rasmussen noted that Obama himself is key to passage of the legislation. The president enjoys high job approval ratings overall and is especially popular among those who are undecided about the current legislation.
"We don't know if we like what he's doing, but he's sure good at it".

Pffft. Merkin's.

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Old 03-01-2009, 01:23 PM   #27
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There is no "solution" to the problem. There are various approaches to addressing it.
With all due respect samclem, I see nothing in what you have suggested that would do anything to help address the economic meltdown that we are facing. You've admitted that you basically want govt. to get out of the way, and let the chips fall where they may. That may satisfy your desire for a smaller and less intrusive govt., but it does nothing to constructively address the situation we are facing. It is possible that the current mess we're in would eventually self-correct without govt. intervention, without leading to a major crisis far worse than anything we have now, but I wouldn't want to bet the whole economy on it, as you seem willing to do.
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Old 03-01-2009, 01:53 PM   #28
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With all due respect samclem, I see nothing in what you have suggested that would do anything to help address the economic meltdown that we are facing. You've admitted that you basically want govt. to get out of the way, and let the chips fall where they may. That may satisfy your desire for a smaller and less intrusive govt., but it does nothing to constructively address the situation we are facing. It is possible that the current mess we're in would eventually self-correct without govt. intervention, without leading to a major crisis far worse than anything we have now, but I wouldn't want to bet the whole economy on it, as you seem willing to do.
Ultimate the economy will reach an equilibrium whether we "do nothing" or we go through with the "stimulus" - no changing that, just a question of when. The question is which will be faster and which less painful?

"Do nothing" will punish all of us, those who over-leveraged themselves especially. The "stimulus" will punish all of us, while seemingly rewarding "bad behavior" to some extent. And the latter will increase deficits, debt and ultimately taxes and the size of government (likely a permanent setback)- might get a healthy dose of inflation to boot. I'd rather try the approach that does not ensure higher debt or taxes, what's the downside? If "do nothing" increases debt and taxes, how is that likely to be worse? Stimulus supporters like to point out that we'll all be hurt by "do nothing" - of course "stimulus" will hurt at least as much in the end.

I saw it posed on another thread - can anyone point to a government "stimulus" type intervention that clearly corrected a recession/depression (aside from Hitler & Mussolini)?
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Old 03-01-2009, 03:23 PM   #29
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I still have not heard a viable alternative solution to the problem. Your "solution" is simply to have govt. get out of the way, unless I misunderstood you.
I read it as Samclem was talking about how we got here.
Try here for a viable alternative.
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Economy Needs Coordination, Not Money, From the Government - February 23, 2009
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Old 03-01-2009, 03:36 PM   #30
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RAE....I agree with what you said. I think some on this thread represent what is increasingly becoming a fringe "Herbert Hoover" movement who believe "let the chips fall where they may". It is one alternative to the current situation but I can't buy it. Luckily I don't think the country is with them on that.

1. On HH - he was the opposite of what you are saying.

Herbert Hoover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hoover deeply believed in the Efficiency Movement (a major component of the Progressive Era),

Efficiency Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Efficiency Movement was a major dimension of the Progressive Era in the United States. It flourished 1890-1932. Adherents argued that all aspects of the economy, society and government were riddled with waste and inefficiency. Everything would be better if experts identified the problems and fixed them. The result was strong support for building research universities and schools of business and engineering, municipal research agencies, as well as reform of hospitals and medical schools.

2. "Fringe" most movements have been described as such at their beginning from abolitionist to the Viet Nam protesters. (Unless you are attempting to be dismissive by choosing that word.)
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Old 03-01-2009, 03:48 PM   #31
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In the 80's the COLT States Colorado, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas had a housing bubble. The government did not come to the aid of the home owners. Saving and loans, banks big and small were closed and sold off. The RTC took over the properties and liquidated them. These four states survived. If this is Nationalization then lets get it done.

What we are doing now reminds me of the mentality of every kid in the race must get a prize, so everyone goes home a winner.
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Old 03-01-2009, 03:53 PM   #32
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Our society is past being fiscally responsible. I believe we'll keep living beyond our means until the Chinese and others stop lending or the currency collapses.Time will tell.
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Old 03-01-2009, 07:49 PM   #33
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bold mine:

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What I am saying is that I am willing to pay the higher taxes that Obama proposes by those most fortunate in this society (I am one of them per his definition) if it will right the ship of state.
OK, but what makes you think his plan as stated is a good plan to "right the ship"? And if it were, wouldn't the markets be doing the jubilation jig?

And by his definition, I am NOT one of those that will be paying higher taxes. But I still don;'t like the plan, because I don't see enough in there to stimulate business to create jobs. What I see is spending on things the govt wants to spend on, and bailing out bad decisions, and calling that "stimulus".

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Old 03-01-2009, 10:10 PM   #34
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Our society is past being fiscally responsible. I believe we'll keep living beyond our means until the Chinese and others stop lending or the currency collapses.Time will tell.
The Chinese and others will stop lending but the currency won't collapse, at least for a while. We'll just accelerate the trend of selling land and infrastructure to foreign investors who have grown weary of lending to us. Chicago has already sold Midway airport and the Chicago Skyway (a toll road) and I'm sure more will follow. When others own our roads and bridges, airports, rail lines, harbors, local, state and federal parks, farmland, manufacturing and other capital....... then the final end will be in sight.

I wonder how much we can get for the rights to the fresh water in the Great Lakes?
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:21 AM   #35
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The Chinese and others will stop lending...
Hard to say. What's happened to China's economy shows that happens to them when the U.S. economy suffers a serious slowdown. I don't think it's in their best interest to use the nuclear option to tank the dollar or cause the rate on Treasuries (and thus all other borrowing) to skyrocket.

It could be that continued buying of Treasuries despite the apparent watering down of their value through eventual inflation and erosion of the dollar -- and the added credit risk -- is the "lesser of two evils" for China compared pulling the plug and watching their entire export market shrivel to near nothing. That may not last forever, but for now and the foreseeable future, I think it is. The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:44 AM   #36
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The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.
All true. OTOH, the PRC government may not continue to act with the measured, rational steps we've seen in the past. There's considerable social pressure building in China--huge numbers of peasants who moved from the provinces to the city for jobs are now out of work and hungry. They've seen what prosperity looks like and they have seen that capitalism can lead to wealth--or at least chance at wealth. They've changed a lot since they left the farm. This is the type of situation that leads to social unrest. If it grows worse, the government will do what it must to clamp down on internal dissent while using the time-proven tactic of searching for an external enemy on which to focus popular attention and whip up support for the government. China's derailment from the (slow) course it has been on toward capitalism could be yet another unfortunate impact of the present downturn.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:39 PM   #37
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Hard to say. What's happened to China's economy shows that happens to them when the U.S. economy suffers a serious slowdown. I don't think it's in their best interest to use the nuclear option to tank the dollar or cause the rate on Treasuries (and thus all other borrowing) to skyrocket.

It could be that continued buying of Treasuries despite the apparent watering down of their value through eventual inflation and erosion of the dollar -- and the added credit risk -- is the "lesser of two evils" for China compared pulling the plug and watching their entire export market shrivel to near nothing. That may not last forever, but for now and the foreseeable future, I think it is. The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.
You missed my point. Correct, the Chinese are not stupid and don't want to destroy their export market. But their lack of stupidity also tells them that shipping us goods in exchange for soon-to-be worthless paper ain't so smart either. They'll be wanting more collateral than just our promise to pay later. So, we'll have to pick up the pace on shipping them our natural resources and deeds to our land, infrasturcture and capital.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:50 PM   #38
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You missed my point. Correct, the Chinese are not stupid and don't want to destroy their export market. But their lack of stupidity also tells them that shipping us goods in exchange for worthless paper ain't so smart either. They'll be wanting more collateral than just our promise to pay later.
I'm not sure I missed it completely. Yes, I agree they may want to try to get more advantageous terms than to ship everything and getting likely depreciating currency in the longer term, but not to the extent that Treasury prices crumble. That would cause their yields to spike, putting a lower bound on pretty much ALL other borrowing, including even the best corporate risks, causing new Treasury debt to be issued at much higher rates (making it harder to pay back) and seriously jeopardize any recovery -- and possibly make it worse.

It may well be that the Chinese would like to do this, but for the time being I don't think causing a spike in the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government or American businesses (read: employers) is likely something China wants to set in motion. Not at this fragile juncture, anyway.
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Old 03-02-2009, 03:00 PM   #39
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I'm not sure I missed it completely. Yes, I agree they may want to try to get more advantageous terms than to ship everything and getting likely depreciating currency in the longer term, but not to the extent that Treasury prices crumble. That would cause their yields to spike, putting a lower bound on pretty much ALL other borrowing, including even the best corporate risks, causing new Treasury debt to be issued at much higher rates (making it harder to pay back) and seriously jeopardize any recovery -- and possibly make it worse.

It may well be that the Chinese would like to do this, but for the time being I don't think causing a spike in the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government or American businesses (read: employers) is likely something China wants to set in motion. Not at this fragile juncture, anyway.
Well neither you nor I have shown ourselves to be very talented at predicting the future, so I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'll stand with my position that the Chinese, and others, will own more tangible property while holding fewer notes going forward. Whether it's airports, harbors, major urban buildings, land or natural resource rights, look for foreign concerns to increase ownership in lieu of holding our paper in the future.
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Old 03-02-2009, 11:56 PM   #40
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Well neither you nor I have shown ourselves to be very talented at predicting the future, so I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'll stand with my position that the Chinese, and others, will own more tangible property while holding fewer notes going forward. Whether it's airports, harbors, major urban buildings, land or natural resource rights, look for foreign concerns to increase ownership in lieu of holding our paper in the future.
That's ok - cause we can tax, regulate, & restrict the heck out of those things - esp. with the Dem's in power
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