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Old 06-11-2010, 11:28 AM   #41
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My monetary needs are low enough that I have zero fear about means testing, or any tax changes for that matter. If I had a paid off house then I would need only $20k or so to maintain my current standard of living, which I am very happy with.

Whatever new taxes they come up with it probably won't have much affect on people in the $30k or lower range. So, I'm confident I'll be able to ESR by age 45 or so. I'll need $15k from my taxable investments and $15k from part-time work. Then at 65 or so I can ER and replace the w-2 income with 401k, roth, soc sec, and pension money.
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Old 06-11-2010, 11:43 AM   #42
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(snip)
I started work right before the Reagan tax cuts.
(snip)
80/81 Tax rates 49% 34,100, 55% 41,500, 63% 55,300, 68% 88,100, 70% 108,300.
Yep, I started work in 1977, about the same time as you. We didn't have state income tax in Texas, but folks were still pretty crazy about tax rates. Funny thing though, few seem to remember the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Here are the rates and income thresholds.
15% $0 - $29,750
28% $29,750 - $71,900
33% $71,900 - $149,250
28% $149,250 -
source: The Tax Foundation - U.S. Federal Individual Income Tax Rates History, 1913-2010
Lemme tell ya, as a Dilbert type engineer, I did not appreciate paying a higher marginal rate than the president of the MegaCorp I worked for. It kind of soured me on politicians who promised to lower my taxes.

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GS and Wall St. bankers may have the morality of serial killer or a politician, but they are also extremely adept at playing the system. If the system changes they adapt, and they likelihood that Congress can write a set of tax laws that will cost them 1/2 their salaries is very slim.
Golly, and I thought that I was a pessimist. Do you mean to say that GS is so smart that there is nothing that we as a people can do to restrain them? Should we, as a Texas governor once famously said "just lie back and enjoy it"?
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Old 06-11-2010, 11:56 AM   #43
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The real question then is... At what taxation level does the curve peak ? The answer is not very clear. The data supports a variety of taxation positions.

The other questions are... Where are we on a Laffer-like curve ? What is it's shape ? and will increased taxation levels from where we are now actually increase government income ?
http://economics.missouri.edu/semina...008/030708.pdf

The paper sheds a bit of light on the shape of the curve, and the slope and peak, based on a quantitative assessment of the EU-15 and the US economies. One thing I found interesting was how advance knowledge of a tax change affected government spending and revenue (pages 27-28).

Skipping to the conclusion... (SPOILER WARNING!)
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We show that there exist robust steady state Laffer curves for labor taxes as well as capital taxes. According to the model the US and the EU-15 area are located on the left side of their Laffer curves. However the EU-15 countries are much closer to the slippery slopes than the US. Our results show that if taxes in the EU-15 area continue to rise as they have done in the past, the peak of the Laffer curve becomes very close. By contrast, tax cuts will boost the incentives to work and invest in the EU-15 economy.

In addition, our results indicate that tax cuts in the EU-15 area are to a much higher degree self-financing compared to the US which again reflects higher incentive effects from tax cuts in the EU-15 economy compared to the US. We therefore conclude that there rarely is a free lunch due to tax cuts. However, a large fraction of the lunch will be paid for by the efficiency gains in the economy due to tax cuts.
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Old 06-11-2010, 11:56 AM   #44
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As I recall, the deficit tripled while Reagan was in. Economic growth as a result?...no surprise. The old cliche of burning the furniture to stay warm...It feels good at first, but there might be consequences down the road.
Laffer might have gotten there the wrong way, but I think he might have gotten it right in the end.
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If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain't seen nothing yet.-Laffer
Higher taxes are just one more reason to short the market.
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:01 PM   #45
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Since some of those posting on this thread persist in posting on political matters, the thread has been moved to FIRE Related Political Topics.

Please remember that discussions relegated to this forum must be clearly related to FIRE. Thank you.
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:20 PM   #46
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There are two types of wealthy: the merely wealthy and the uber wealthy. The merely wealthy will double up on tax avoidance plans. The uber wealthy can find sanctuaries where they are welcome and have the means to enjoy quality of life just about anywhere they desire.
I think the uber wealthy usually form non-profits for their pet cause and then employ their children, grand-children and so on down the line, as a way to pass on the wealth.

Individual stocks also get a stepped up cost basis I think when inherited. So, stocks like BRK are probably a good way to pass on wealth and to also accumulate wealth with minimum taxes.

Too bad, I prefer to invest in dividend growth stocks. The tax man loves me. About 30% of my expenses last year were taxes (pay roll taxes included).
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:20 PM   #47
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All this means that the average Joe will end up paying more as the government is running out of willing taxpayers to take money from. My single kids who rent and have no income other W-2 wages and maybe a tiny amount of interest pay about 16% of their income in federal taxes, another 7.3 in SS and a small amount in state taxes. Neither earns more than $50K. They have 401Ks and Roth IRAs, but the tax hit on their earned income is high compared to what they earn (in terms of effect - 20% of $1M still leaves to $800K to spend; 20% of $50K leaves you $40K).

For those of us near or at retirement, a lot of our savings is deferred - 401Ks, IRAs, I bonds, etc. If we are still working, shifting income to 2010 (virtually impossible) or converting to Roths makes little sense as it pushes our rates really high.

Unfortunately, I see no solution to this problem in the short term. We can't milk the uber rich, they know how to avoid taxes, we don't tax the poor (whose no tax threshhold keeps going up), and that leaves the middle class. Oh, well, we will find out what happens in about a year.
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:23 PM   #48
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For those of us near or at retirement, a lot of our savings is deferred - 401Ks, IRAs, I bonds, etc. If we are still working, shifting income to 2010 (virtually impossible) or converting to Roths makes little sense as it pushes our rates really high.

Unfortunately, I see no solution to this problem in the short term. We can't milk the uber rich, they know how to avoid taxes, we don't tax the poor (whose no tax threshhold keeps going up), and that leaves the middle class. Oh, well, we will find out what happens in about a year.
I think it just adds credence to the strategy of living simply, being debt-free, saving until it hurts, learning to enjoy a simple lifestyle and such so you can be one of the few people who have the option to "starve the beast."
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:39 PM   #49
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It is a fine theory, but I don't think it accurately describes human behavior, even for the wealthy. I have been in the very highest marginal tax bracket. Taxes were the least of my motivations -- my efforts were driven by the demands of my practice. I suspect that other high earners are similar in that they do what they do because that is the life they have chosen, not because their tax bracket is x% or y%. At best, my tax bracket influenced my investment choices (e.g. - I was much more likely to put money in a municipal bond fund).
But how many are deterred from high income professional tracks due to lack of incentives? I count myself as one "deterred". I could make a whole lot more, but why bother when I can have a comfortable living while paying almost zero federal income tax and still support my family in the manner to which we are accustomed?

Maybe because I am FIRE-oriented I am a very rare unique case and most others make life decisions regarding professions without looking at the marginal cost of increased effort and hours working vs. marginal after tax benefits received. I didn't really figure this out until part of the way through law school, so I can't really fault anyone for not taking my analytical approach.

It further shapes my outlook on the future. Where do I guide my children? A stable low(ish) income career doing something relatively stress free and enjoyable or an intense high stress environment that pays a lot (to the employee and to the taxman)?
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Old 06-11-2010, 12:40 PM   #50
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Good move.

From an investor's perspective, I follow (what I believe is) the conventional wisdom. When the tax cuts expire in 2011, federal revenue will go up.* The resulting decrease in the deficit will act as a drag on the economy, and this will increase the chance of another dip.

Now, since all conventional economists already know about the increased tax rates, they have probably factored this into their models, so there are no easy pickings if you agree that this is the conventional wisdom.

I saw a non-economist columnist who says that Americans are so spooked by the deficit that any reduction would have a positive psychological effect that might outweigh the standard economic argument. I wish that were true, but I doubt that it is.

Laffer's other factors don't impress me.
- Someone with unrealized gains in a stock might decide to sell in Dec 2010 instead of Jan 2011. That money is probably being rolled into another stock either way. I don't see any significant impact on the macro economy.
- Somewhere a corporation chooses to pay dividends a month early to save investors some tax money. I don't see a big impact.
- Somone retires early because 39% is so much more than 35%. I suppose that will happen somewhere, but with unemployment nearly double digits, there will be a whole line of people ready to jump into that job.
- Stocks become less desirable as investments, suggesting that some people will move to bonds. I don't see any near term impacts on the whole economy.

The drag due to higher gov't revenue may be a real issue, the others just don't impress me.

* The Treasury Dept under GW Bush did a "dynamic" study of extending the tax cuts. They said that lower taxes increased economic activity and therefore partially financed themselves. But the numbers were dramatically left side of L-curve. IIRC, a cut that cost $100 dollars on a "static" basis, still cost $93 after dynamic effects.
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Old 06-11-2010, 01:19 PM   #51
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When our income was lower, I used to think that higher taxes would be a deterrent. IIRC, I even envisioned quitting my job so that we could pay fewer taxes. But now that our income has doubled over the past 3 years, we have found that making more money is always an attractive proposition, regardless of the increased taxation that comes with it. It doesn't mean that I am happy to pay 6 figures in taxes each year. I am European after all and b*tching about taxes is as much a national past-time for us as soccer is. I will not let myself be plucked without using every legal mean at my disposal to lessen the pain (contribute to a 401K, make our portfolio tax efficient, manage deferred compensation for tax efficiency, etc...) but, even sitting in the top tax bracket, it's hard to feel much deterrence to try and make even more money.

Compared to my other reference points, I find the current American tax system very attractive. It will remain comparatively attractive for me despite next year's tax increase.
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Old 06-11-2010, 01:29 PM   #52
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Compared to my other reference points, I find the current American tax system very attractive. It will remain comparatively attractive for me despite next year's tax increase.
I don't have a problem with our income tax rates but do get disgusted when I look at the sum total of taxes paid on everything under the sun. Just the other day I paid my annual business liability insurance premium and there was a 7.5% tax on the premium. Doesn't seem like much to some but I'm a one man operation and that hurts. I wish we could scrap all the taxes and replace them with a VAT. The more you consume, the more you pay.
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Old 06-11-2010, 01:47 PM   #53
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Just the other day I paid my annual business liability insurance premium and there was a 7.5% tax on the premium. Doesn't seem like much to some but I'm a one man operation and that hurts.
Yes, I realized there are some sort of taxes on auto liability insurance in my state. I called to modify the policy coverage and they quoted me the premium as $232 with existing coverage. I said it is shown as $252 but thanks for the discount. Apparently their system shows the pre-tax amount and the post tax amount - the $20 discrepancy was taxes. They messed up and told me the pre tax amount by accident. These are hidden taxes since they never appear on the consumer's bill.
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Old 06-11-2010, 01:49 PM   #54
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Yep, I started work in 1977, about the same time as you. We didn't have state income tax in Texas, but folks were still pretty crazy about tax rates. Funny thing though, few seem to remember the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Here are the rates and income thresholds.
15% $0 - $29,750
28% $29,750 - $71,900
33% $71,900 - $149,250
28% $149,250 -
source: The Tax Foundation - U.S. Federal Individual Income Tax Rates History, 1913-2010
Lemme tell ya, as a Dilbert type engineer, I did not appreciate paying a higher marginal rate than the president of the MegaCorp I worked for. It kind of soured me on politicians who promised to lower my taxes.
The reason the rate went from 33% back down to 28% was because the 33% bracket was a "phasing out of the 15% bracket".

If this form of taxation with a "phase-out bubble" causing many to pay higher marginal rates than "the rich" was wrong, then we seem determined to repeat it in the way the coming health insurance subsidy phase-out is being implemented.
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Old 06-11-2010, 02:01 PM   #55
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I don't have a problem with our income tax rates but do get disgusted when I look at the sum total of taxes paid on everything under the sun. Just the other day I paid my annual business liability insurance premium and there was a 7.5% tax on the premium. Doesn't seem like much to some but I'm a one man operation and that hurts. I wish we could scrap all the taxes and replace them with a VAT. The more you consume, the more you pay.
There are a lot of stealth taxes, it's true. And I think they will become even more numerous and insidious in the future. They learned that in a big way in Europe. Politicians love stealth taxes because they can be raised inconspicuously with little or no resistance from taxpayers. I doubt a VAT would eliminate stealth taxes.

Stealth taxes are usually regressive as well. So small increases multiplied by a large number of unsuspecting taxpayers = jackpot. Like in the movie "office space", skim 1 penny off of millions of transactions and you get real money.
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Old 06-11-2010, 02:10 PM   #56
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There are a lot of stealth taxes, it's true. And I think they will become even more numerous and insidious in the future. They learned that in a big way in Europe. Politicians love stealth taxes because they can be raised inconspicuously with little or no resistance from taxpayers. I doubt a VAT would eliminate stealth taxes.
I think this is why property taxes are so despised compared to other taxes. They aren't hidden, they aren't "unnoticed" in payroll deductions and you get socked with one large, conspicuous bill that reminds you of how much government costs instead of being nickel and dime. And many in government would rather you not realize how much it costs.
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Old 06-11-2010, 02:38 PM   #57
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I've often thought of of truly watching all of my spending for a year and accurately calculating the total taxes paid but always end up not doing it because it's too much work and I'm afraid of what I'd find out.
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Old 06-11-2010, 03:15 PM   #58
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I've often thought of of truly watching all of my spending for a year and accurately calculating the total taxes paid but always end up not doing it because it's too much work and I'm afraid of what I'd find out.
I actually did it one year (on a bet). Of course, some taxes are so embedded in the price of goods and services that it is nearly impossible to tally all taxes paid with any significant accuracy. But based on taxes (and "federal fees") we paid directly (income, payroll, sales, property, auto, gasoline, cable, phone, alcohol, utility, air travel, etc...), I found out that less than 30% of our gross income went to direct taxes of all sorts. I thought it reasonable given our income level. Of course, the largest tax expenses were income and payroll taxes for us (25% of gross). Because, in our case, we consume less then 20% of our income, stealth and consumption taxes represented mostly a rounding error. As always, YMMV.
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Old 06-11-2010, 07:39 PM   #59
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I think it just adds credence to the strategy of living simply, being debt-free, saving until it hurts, learning to enjoy a simple lifestyle and such so you can be one of the few people who have the option to "starve the beast."
+1 - Last year I finally achieved tax nirvana - Paid zero in Federal and State taxes, No sales tax ( I live in Oregon) and property taxes were $990 on my 7 acre little ranch (I guess there had to be a fly in the ointment). Probably won't last...
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Old 06-11-2010, 09:38 PM   #60
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IMO, it is foolish to think that high taxes don't create strong disincentives to work. And unfortunately, these disincentives are primarily directed at the most productive members of society.

While my official federal tax bracket is currently 28%, my marginal tax rate is about 45% (32.5% federal AMT, 9.55% state, 1.45% medicare, 1.07% state deduction and exemption phaseouts). This doesn't include other taxes (non marginal 6.2% social security and 0.9% state SDI, $3K property for a small home, 9.75% sales taxes, gas taxes, utility taxes, embedded corporate taxes, etc). My marginal rate would be over 50% if the social security cap was eliminated. Last year, my total taxes were 3 times my non-tax expenses. How has this impacted me (besides the motivation to retire)?

- I turned down a promotion at my present employer because the *tax-adjusted* salary increase was not commensurate with the additional work.

- I turned down a part-time teaching position at a community college for the same reason. While financial reward is obviously not the primary reason to teach, the after-tax compensation did not motivate the extra work.

- Last year, I turned down a dream job opportunity at another company. Since the salary would have been on top of a taxable pension base from my present employer, the effective salary would have been reduced by about 50% due to taxes. The incentive wasn't there.

One could argue that "other people filled these positions," but presumably these people were less qualified since I was first offered the position (in fact, they didn't hire for two of the above positions because they specifically targeted me). A decline in productivity.

Businesses often pay (hourly) employees extra for additional work. A productive employee who normally earns $20/hr may be offered $30/hr to work overtime. This is an incentive. Our tax system is exactly the opposite. Our tax system offers the same employee $10-15/hr to be more productive. This is a disincentive.

Small changes *do* impact behavior. If this was not true then Wal-Mart would seek higher revenue by raising prices 5-10% . They don't do this because they know which side of the "Laffer Curve" their prices (taxes) are on. I don't know where on the curve the US tax system falls, but considering the high marginal rates (50+%) of those who will be most impacted by tax increases, I suspect it's over the top.

While I don't believe higher taxes will cause economic collapse, I do believe they will negatively impact the economy. People will adjust their investments and compensation. Two income families will become one income families. There will be added incentives to retire (this is on the mind of many people at my workplace). Unintended consequences will occur.

Originally, my plan was to early retire when I turned 50 and became eligible for lifetime health benefits through my employer pension. This was 6 months ago. My DBP pension would have provided $45K/yr of income (with COLA) me paying $1.5K/yr in premiums for health coverage. Good deal. But government health reform now offers me a much better deal at taxpayer expense. While I'm waiting to see how this all plays out, my new plan is to leave my job but delay taking the pension until my full retirement age at 60. At that time my pension will provide me with $100K/yr of income (plus the COLA between now and then). In the meantime, I'll live off my assets and my income will be negligible. I'll be eligible for fully subsidized health care. It's not clear to me why hardworking taxpayers should pay my health care costs when I am perfectly able to do this myself. But this is government incentive in action. Unintended consequences.

IMO, taxes don't need to go up. Spending needs to go down. Taxpayers should not be subsidizing the health care costs of able-bodied "multimillionaires" who choose not to work. But that's just me.
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