Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-05-2017, 08:44 PM   #41
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
One of the possible improvements that people often mention with self driving cars is the "on demand" aspect where there won't be individually owned cars in every garage. I was reading an article on a technology risks newsletter I get that mentioned how that could backfire. If there's a hurricane or some other catastrophe and there are a limited number of vehicles, it will make evacuating much more difficult. Although perhaps the lack of traffic will allow the cars to make multiple trips. I'm not sure how that will play out.

Despite the fact that I absolutely love driving (I should probably have been a long haul trucker), I can't wait until self driving cars are available. Just the ability to relax on our twice yearly migration between MD and FL would be wonderful. And as much as I love to drive I realize that eventually I'll be even more of a risk than I am now. It would be nice to still be self reliant even after they pull my license. I'm sure I'll be driving pretty badly by the time they do that, since my license is from FL.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-05-2017, 10:11 PM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Kerrville,Tx
Posts: 3,361
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerntz View Post
On "a moment's notice", yes. But for many of those, humans fail today, so no difference. On less extreme situations, the vehicle could start slowing to a stop till the mere human takes over.
I suspect that the need to take over will be signaled by a vibrating seat (as Chevy Tahoes have) loud chimes and heads up displays. (as well as muting the sound system, essentially making the need totally obvious).
meierlde is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2017, 10:14 PM   #43
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Thousand Oaks
Posts: 1,111
Quote:
Originally Posted by harley View Post
One of the possible improvements that people often mention with self driving cars is the "on demand" aspect where there won't be individually owned cars in every garage. I was reading an article on a technology risks newsletter I get that mentioned how that could backfire. If there's a hurricane or some other catastrophe and there are a limited number of vehicles, it will make evacuating much more difficult. Although perhaps the lack of traffic will allow the cars to make multiple trips. I'm not sure how that will play out.

Despite the fact that I absolutely love driving (I should probably have been a long haul trucker), I can't wait until self driving cars are available. Just the ability to relax on our twice yearly migration between MD and FL would be wonderful. And as much as I love to drive I realize that eventually I'll be even more of a risk than I am now. It would be nice to still be self reliant even after they pull my license. I'm sure I'll be driving pretty badly by the time they do that, since my license is from FL.


I'd be willing to bet that a coordinated self driving car pool/share evacuation would actually be more efficient and safe than a everyone panic and jump in your car at the same time scheme.
mh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 05:47 AM   #44
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,201
Quote:
Originally Posted by mh View Post
I'd be willing to bet that a coordinated self driving car pool/share evacuation would actually be more efficient and safe than a everyone panic and jump in your car at the same time scheme.
I'd agree, but I think he meant there would just be fewer cars per capita. That does seem likely when few if any of us have our own cars.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 06:23 AM   #45
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Not sure what parking lots have to do with autonomous cars, that has to do with car/ride sharing, not self driving cars themselves so much.

But there won't be as much congestion, or the engineers will have failed completely.
  • If there are 90% fewer accidents, there will be less congestion.
  • A self driving car won't change lanes arbitrarily, those maneuvers will be more systematic. Cars will probably "talk to each other" sooner or later - already R&D underway.
  • Self driving cars won't drive all different speeds, I suspect there will be default speeds for different traffic zones, and a decision tree to vary according to conditions - or something like that.
  • Self driving cars won't be talking, reading or texting, under the influence, putting on makeup, half asleep, reaching in the backseat, dealing with kids, won't care about rain, snow or dust, etc.
There will be less congestion to be sure.
Parking lots and spaces have a ton to do with cars, environment and life quality. If riders could be dropped off at their destination, a car could go park in a garage for example. The on street parking, mall parking lots, etc could be replaced by various types of parking alternatives. Think of your local mall being sorrounded by a park vs 100s of concrete parking spaces. The car park might be a half mile away.

BTW, your taxes pay for the on street parking. We'll still pay for the parking structures I am guessing but safe to say they will be more efficient and cost less.

Lots of online information on this. A popular subject among bicycle advocates.
savory is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 07:12 AM   #46
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
exnavynuke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
I'm looking forward to the day when I can tell a car to take me to an appointment and it deals with rush hour traffic while I read a book or take a nap. 12 hour road-trips with no one having to concentrate on the road the whole time would be much more enjoyable. However, I can't imagine I'll plan on getting rid of my ability to go drive for enjoyment sometimes even if/when the rest becomes reality.
exnavynuke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 07:31 AM   #47
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
Self-driving is great for people who:
  • Cannot drive: elderly, small children, sight or otherwise impaired persons, sick persons.
  • Shouldn't drive: drunk, high or emotional
  • Don't want to drive
  • Like to replace driving time with other times (reading, calling, sleeping, ..)


It isn't for people who:

  • Want to drive themselves
  • Live in remote areas with limited means: too expensive
  • Like to own cars


If you think self-driving cars it's better to think of a universal bus system. Only with smaller buses and no driver. On-call, always available in most denser areas. With time delay or own-your-own in more remote areas. In fact, the bus system will become obsolete. Most regional trains too, but they'll probably stay since the infrastructure is built already.


Accidents will drop by a factor 10, the car manufacturer will most likely self-insure. Millions of lives will be saved, tens of millions injuries prevented. Broken cars or cars in trouble will call roadside assistance. Parking space inside cities will be freed up, possibly removed. Big quick-charge stations near power plants will likely be built if it's electric (and it will be). These stations will likely have a service center embedded. Many (most?) people will no longer own their car, but it will be a long while before a family with children gives up their station with all their family stuff in there. If the price is right, they'll still own it.


Regarding timeline and state of the art: still a ways out for full autonomy (no steering wheel), but the race is on. Most expect 2030 - 2040 to be the tipping point. Closed-off sites will be first: mining sites, predictable routes (intra-airport), .. Big problems are snow, rain etc .. expect the self-driving fleet to be temporarily unavailable when conditions are poor. Later it will be better.


Multi-tiered and application specific fleets will emerge: shared rides (think bus), luxury rides, school pickup/dropoff rides (with extra safety features). Just like today. I'm not counting on reduced congestion though. If a service becomes cheaper and easier to use, demand usually skyrockets ..
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 07:49 AM   #48
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 48
This is a healthy and interesting debate, but its fruitless. The autonomous car is coming whether we like it or not. There are big strong corps pushing this technology. (The auto makers and tech giants are all behind it.) That translates into big strong lobbying efforts. The lobbying effort will drive out self driving cars through regulation and expenses.

I've accepted its coming and loosely baked into my LTC plan for when I'm too old to safely drive. i.e. Get in the car and tell it to take me to the grocery, gym, doctor, etc.
tn3sport is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 07:56 AM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Self-driving is great for people who:
  • Cannot drive: elderly, small children, sight or otherwise impaired persons, sick persons.
  • Shouldn't drive: drunk, high or emotional
  • Don't want to drive
  • Like to replace driving time with other times (reading, calling, sleeping, ..)


It isn't for people who:

  • Want to drive themselves
  • Live in remote areas with limited means: too expensive
  • Like to own cars
I would make few changes.

Shouldn't drive should include a lot more people than your list. Anyone without good situational awareness, which would include most people much of the time. My personal estimate is that 90% of accidents or near accidents are caused by people not paying proper attention (texting, conversing, listening to the radio or GPS, yelling at the kids, daydreaming, or just oblivious), so most of those shouldn't be driving. Most of the other 10% are caused by people over-estimating their abilities (speed, mostly), so they shouldn't be driving either.

And I don't see why living in a remote area would matter. If they own cars now, they could own one that does self driving. They don't all have to be garage based. That's just a way to make things more convenient for those that want it that way. If their means are too limited to own a car at all, then there's no difference.

And those that like to drive themselves? Fine. But maybe when they get into an accident, which would likely be their fault if most of the rest of the cars are self driving, then they get put into the "shouldn't drive" category, at least for a certain time. Better than jail, or a fine and then back on the road to do it again.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:15 AM   #50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
Very good points Didn't want to come across as full-on fanboy. >99% of people would qualify with that amended list (and you are probably right).

Driving your own car will probably evolve to something akin to driving a horse: as a hobby done by a few enthusiasts, with special considerations if you want to take it on a public road.

Regarding remote living: it alters the economics quite a bit: self-driving equipment on a car is expected to cost roughly at least $10k, possibly $30k and more for a long while, so it at least doubles your expenses on the low end. And circumstances are a bit more variable, so it's harder to pull off 100% availability while you need it more.

So it will probably be cheaper and more convenient to own an old-fashioned one at first. But you are right, in the end it probably won't matter.
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:38 AM   #51
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,201
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Not sure what parking lots have to do with autonomous cars, that has to do with car/ride sharing, not self driving cars themselves so much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by davef View Post
Parking lots and spaces have a ton to do with cars, environment and life quality. If riders could be dropped off at their destination, a car could go park in a garage for example. The on street parking, mall parking lots, etc could be replaced by various types of parking alternatives. Think of your local mall being sorrounded by a park vs 100s of concrete parking spaces. The car park might be a half mile away.
Yeah, I should have elaborated a little more. I was drawing the distinction between:
  • If we all have self-driving cars, we'll still need just as many parking spots, though I guess they could be relocated. However, that won't be until we get to fully autonomous cars. For the first decade(s), there won't be many cars running around without drivers. Most owner/drivers will want to be there to intervene manually vs letting their car drive around unattended.
  • What will reduce the need for parking spots is car/ride sharing, where fewer cars are needed and fewer cars sit idle. Even excepting public transportation, that's being done now with taxis, and increasing with Uber, Lyft, etc. - without self driving cars. However, it stands to reason self driving cars could further increase car/ride sharing.
Hope that's a better explanation, thanks.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:47 AM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,201
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Self-driving is great for people who:
  • Cannot drive: elderly, small children, sight or otherwise impaired persons, sick persons.
  • Shouldn't drive: drunk, high or emotional, texting, reading, snapchatting, taking selfies, talking on the phone, swatting kids in the backseat
  • Don't want to drive
  • Like to replace driving time with other times (reading, calling, sleeping, ..)
It isn't for people who:
  • Want to drive themselves
  • Live in remote areas with limited means: too expensive
  • Like to own cars
Accidents will drop by a factor 10, the car manufacturer will most likely self-insure. Millions of lives will be saved, tens of millions injuries prevented. Parking space inside cities will be freed up, possibly removed.
I agree it will start out that way, but it won't end that way - nearer the end of the evolution to self driving cars vehicles. For the reason you state in blue above, people who want to drive themselves will eventually be forced off the road because they will be 10 times (estimated) more dangerous than self-driving cars. And parking spaces will be scarcer eventually. And when manual driving is discouraged (or outlawed), fewer people will want to own cars - it will be a niche activity like horseback riding is today, maybe not allowed on public roads in the distant future (speculating?).

There are still a lot of people who are imagining self driving cars will be less safe, and offering up exceptions as "proof." I'm still waiting for one of them to offer up data to support self driving will be less safe. I know being effectively forced off the road doesn't seem possible to today's avid car owner/drivers, but...

...undoubtedly there was a period when horses & carts and automobiles shared the roads. But I'm not seeing horses on the roads much anymore.

And folks in remote areas just aren't going to have the same level of services as urban dwellers, just as they don't have access to taxis, Uber, Lyft, etc. today. It has to cost more to serve folks in remote areas, should urban dwellers absorb that cost?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:57 AM   #53
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
Quote:
Originally Posted by meierlde View Post
I suspect that the need to take over will be signaled by a vibrating seat (as Chevy Tahoes have) loud chimes and heads up displays. (as well as muting the sound system, essentially making the need totally obvious).
But that's longer than "a moment" to me.
gerntz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 08:57 AM   #54
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 4,032
I do, I bet robots drive better than I do. But I might try Uber first.
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 09:07 AM   #55
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Kerrville,Tx
Posts: 3,361
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerntz View Post
But that's longer than "a moment" to me.
Of course the first thing a car would do is slam on the brakes (automatic braking can be harder than human braking) as it always reduces the severity of collisions. Anyway having driven a Tahoe for a week with the seat cushion vibrator, it gets your attention very fast if one leg feels a vibration. Tones also do so fast.
meierlde is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 09:08 AM   #56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
It seems it took about 20 years to transition from horse carriage to horseless carriage, starting with the big cities https://www.quora.com/How-long-did-i...lieu-of-cars-1

Quote:
In the cities, cars took over shortly after Henry Ford, so cars dominated by about 1920. Many cities banned horses, because of manure and dead animals left in the road. (The stench alone was awful). In the countryside, they dominated until about 1939 when the Depression ended.
I can see current cars being banned from highways and megacities pretty fast. Don't see why it would be from other areas though.

To continue the parallel: We don't see many horses on the roads not because they are forbidden, unclean or unsafe (they are, relatively speaking), but because they are expensive, clumsy and require skill to 'operate'. Most people just don't bother.

It's the same with driving your own car: why bother?
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 09:10 AM   #57
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,281
Thanks for helping to clarify. But one key point. It is not the number of cars being parked. It is the spaces made available in consideration of retailers, for example. Next time you pass a strip mall,etc, count the number of empty spaces. Many roads are made 16 feet wider to accommodate a passenger who is going to a nearby location. If space planning was modernized, it would make a big difference in land use and taxes.

You are right that this will depend on people allowing their car to park itself. (Obviously, this will depend on the model used for this technology). But if the passenger can exit at their stop and an efficient parking scheme can be designed, it will be a big win for everyone.
savory is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 09:21 AM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 7,422
I'm looking forward to it too.

Of course the car enthusiasts will be holdouts.

But the younger generation isn't as into cars as we were when we were teens.
explanade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 10:15 AM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,597
A computer will respond millions of times faster than I ever could. And I've read that the Google car computers are "teaching" each other everything each individual car observes and responds to.

I hope they are being put in plenty of situations where they have to respond to wacky illogical human driving behavior that causes accidents.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedup View Post
I do, I bet robots drive better than I do. But I might try Uber first.
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Even a blind clock finds an acorn twice a day.
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2017, 10:21 AM   #60
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 7,422
Though when I heard that the only accident that the Google SDCs ever had was when it was rear-ended by a human driver, I suspected that they program the cars to be very conservative, like your grandma.
explanade is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Self-driving cars for retirees explanade Other topics 27 08-21-2016 01:32 PM
Self-Driving Cars -- Needs of the Many vs Numero Uno easysurfer Other topics 218 08-20-2016 09:50 PM
Are you looking forward to self driving cars? harley Other topics 160 11-20-2015 06:46 AM
News Article on Distracted Driving Includes Distracted Driving TromboneAl Other topics 3 10-25-2015 11:56 AM
Vehicle Safety:IIHS Tests A Few Small Cars Against Medium Cars samclem Other topics 15 04-16-2009 12:29 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:48 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.