Fidelity Webinar with Bond King Jeff Gundlach

[njhowie]

If you have a Fidelity account, Wednesday this week at noon there is a webinar with Jeff Gundlach on "What's driving our economy".

Here is the link to the event registration:
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/events/economic-insight-doubleline

 

[jazz4cash]

I always signup for these things and then forget to attend. What would make it interesting is if several of us attend and meet back here to compare thoughts on the presentation.

 

[COcheesehead]

I have attended several Fido webinars and enjoy them. I always gain insight.

 

[jazz4cash]

Here are some statements from Mr Grundlach from a few weeks ago. I’m interested to see if his outlook had changed.
'Bond King' Gundlach: There is increasing chance of a recession before election https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/bon...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

 

[njhowie]

I'm particularly interested in asking him about this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-13/gundlach-sees-6-yield-in-3-years-anyone-else

 

[MichaelB]

I'm particularly interested in asking him about this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-13/gundlach-sees-6-yield-in-3-years-anyone-else

Would you mind giving us s snippet or summary?

 

[njhowie]

Would you mind giving us s snippet or summary?

They routinely provide a PDF of the slides and will post the replay in the educational section of the website which anyone can access. I'll look for those two things and post links if/when available. I generally don't take notes during these things and mainly just listen while doing other things.

 

[Spock]

I'm particularly interested in asking him about this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-13/gundlach-sees-6-yield-in-3-years-anyone-else

couldn't read your link without a subscription, but googling the headline found the same call back in 2016 right after the election:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496
The deficit has expanded as Grundlach predicted, but without the infrastructure spending or GDP growth.

 

[audreyh1]

They routinely provide a PDF of the slides and will post the replay in the educational section of the website which anyone can access. I'll look for those two things and post links if/when available. I generally don't take notes during these things and mainly just listen while doing other things.

A lot of Fidelity webinars don’t post a replay or the slides for non-attendees.

 

[jazz4cash]

Starts in ~20 min

 

[pb4uski]

I sat through it... not particulatly impressed... main message was that a recession is likely soon and suggestion to get defensive and assume foreign currency risk.... he suggested reducing US equity exposure and increasing foreign denominated no-hedged international equities.

Lots of graphs with odd pairs.... as if correlation equals causation.

 

[jazz4cash]

I thought it was pretty good. I think I heard him say nearly the same when I saw him on CNBC. Most of the charts were from mid September.

I’m planning to stick with my present plan which is 50/10 US/ Int’l.
I downloaded the presentation but it’s useless without the audio which does not appear to be available.

 

[Freedom56]

This so called or self proclaimed "Bond King" stated about 18 months ago that the 10 year note was going to 5% or higher. He advised selling bonds and moving to cash. This is at a time I stated that the yield curve was going to invert and rates were headed lower. Now he's in the recession camp? I think he's just another clown collecting his fees for mis-managing assets.

 

[OldShooter]

... I think he's just another clown collecting his fees for mis-managing assets.

Of course. It has been shown repeatedly that the investing future is random. This underpins the whole of Modern Portfolio Theory. Sometimes these guys get lucky and the press concludes from that that they are geniuses, as do they themselves.

​

 

[CRLLS]

One is either a buy and hold or asset allocation investor, or they are a market timer. If they sell off US equities and replace with cash, bonds or Foreign equities due to this, they are the latter. Just one or 2 steps away from day traders IMO. I think most of us here are the former.

If I listened to the pundits, I would have sold equities 3-4 years ago.

 

[Freedom56]

Of course. It has been shown repeatedly that the investing future is random. This underpins the whole of Modern Portfolio Theory. Sometimes these guys get lucky and the press concludes from that that they are geniuses, as do they themselves.

​

Except bond investing normally is very predictable. Buying individual bonds is not too different from buying CDs. It's just a matter of doing your homework and buying companies that are able to pay their debt obligations to maturity. Broad diversification in bonds can actually hurt you more as many companies are in a long term secular decline. Why would anybody want to own those companies? Also the practice of buying bonds well above par and selling them below par, which is what these fund managers do, hurts overall performance.