A link as good as that one deserves two in return,
wabmaster.
Here’s one to an interview with Peter Bernstein in which he describes why he believes that informed timing of the market is the wave of the future. The Bernstein interview is the first article in the 2-28-03 issue (you need to scroll down a bit).
http://www.weedenco.com/welling/biframe.htm
Juicy Excerpt: “What we’ve had is a graphic demonstration of boom and bust. That’s a familiar pattern. So what’s expected is that after the bust, you pick up the pieces and go forward. That this is different, I think is hard to recognize. And people are reluctant to recognize it. In particular, the difference pulls them away from traditional ways of managing their affairs. I mean, it doesn’t occur to people to say, “Now, I have to do things differently.” Yes, they think, “I won’t get caught in the next bubble, I’ll get out sooner.” But that’s different from saying, “The basic investment structure that I’ve been using, which served me pretty well, is no longer appropriate.” That’s a big step.”
And here’s one to a research paper that appeared in the February 2002 issue of the Journal of Financial Planning.
http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2002_Issues/jfp0202-art10.cfm
Juicy Excerpt: “Our results indicate that the best estimate of future average returns is no longer the long-term average returns on stocks found, for instance, in the Ibbotson’s series of 10 to 12 percent a year. An investment advisor can obtain a more accurate measure of expected returns by making expected returns conditional on the current P/E ratio.
