Who Was it Predicted $70 Oil?

[ShokWaveRider]

Well it got there today. Appears we are all affected by Katrina in some way or another. It never rains it pours, sorry about the pun.

SWR

 

[brewer12345]

DJ-AIG commodities index is up about 4% this morning. Jumpin Jeezus on a pogo stick, its gonna be an expensive winter...

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

I tanked up last night after I saw the price per barrel prediction of $70+.

Although paying for gas over the past several months has been increasingly more expensive, I think it's for the better in many ways.  Here are some possible advantages:

Hybrid cars are in, SUVs (except hybrid SUVs) are out.

Slowdown in housing prices due to transportation and oil-derived construction materials.

People are driving less and taking vacations closer to home, thereby helping local tourist economies.

Increased development of alternative fuel sources, leading to a lesser dependence on foreign oil.

More fuel/electricity efficient appliances.

Reduced emissions from gas guzzling transportation.

Overall, the short-term pain of high oil prices will ultimately lead to a much cleaner and more efficient future.  The dream of the late-1960s may finally come true.

 

[tozz]

Well, I'm certainly having some buyer's remorse over the RV that I plunked a deposit down on a few weeks ago, even if it does get relatively good mileage!

 

[brewer12345]

tozzer, what kind of RV are you buying? How did you go about selecting it?

 

[greg]

Well, I'm certainly having some buyer's remorse over the RV that I plunked a deposit down on a few weeks ago, even if it does get relatively good mileage!

Don't worry about it. When the larger US metro areas turn into a transportation wasteland, you can flee to Canada where they have plenty of gas--but it's just not cheap. Good luck. Those dang things are fun too.

PS Try to negotiate a 'full tank' of fuel for free with the seller before pick up. Otherwise, keep the RV gas tank full--maybe.

--Greg

 

[brewer12345]

Heh, the Coast Guard said there are 7 oil rigs floating loose around the Gulf. We are screwed. Almost all of the excess oil and natural gas production that comes out of the gulf this time of year is usually the inventory build for this winter. That ain't happening this year.

The commodities index is up another ~2.5% again today. I called my heating oil supplier and they told me today's price is $2.50 a gallon. If I want a fixed orice for 12 months it will be $2.889, and I can get a cap of $3.119 if I agree to a floating price about 25 cents higher than the normal price. I used about 1000 galons of heating oil last year, and I will likely need less this year, so its not the end of the world for me, however, there are a lot of people out there in the US for whom an extra buck a gallon over last year is a major issue. Lower end retailers are likely to be in for a world of hurt this winter, especially if it is a cold one.

 

[tozz]

brewmeister:  I referred to the Navion elsewhere on the board, so I don't want to make too much of a thread detour.  However, I wanted something small and mobile, not a large RV park beached whale.  I had a VW camper as a teen, and wanted something along that theme, only more usable for a few weeks at a time.  I had been looking at used Rialtas for years.  However, as elegant as they may look, after renting one for a week I was a little bit disenchanted.  With two people, you pretty much have to choreograph every move i.e. only one person up and about at a time.  And the bathroom (internal slideout wet bath) was essentially unusable.  Plus, even at only 5'9", I was always brushing my head against the ceiling liner.

So Skinny Winny fits the bill.  It'll get up to 20mpg--the best out there today.  It's also a good hedge:  if the folks in the religion thread are right and armageddon is truly nigh, I can pack her up, strap a date on the roof, and head for the hills. 

tozzer, what kind of RV are you buying?  How did you go about selecting it?

 

[Marshac]

Heh, the Coast Guard said there are 7 oil rigs floating loose around the Gulf.  We are screwed. 

Any word on the LOOP?

 

[brewer12345]

Not that I have heard, but it seems unlikely that it didn't get damaged.

Diamond offshorre put out a pressrelease saying that a jack-up drilling rig was nowhere to be found and a floating rig had come loose from its moorings and was found 7 miles (!) away.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Does this mean that underwater wells are spewing oil into the ocean? Or did the oil companies "cap" or temporarily plug their wells prior to evacuating?

 

[brewer12345]

brewmeister:  I referred to the Navion elsewhere on the board, so I don't want to make too much of a thread detour.  However, I wanted something small and mobile, not a large RV park beached whale.  I had a VW camper as a teen, and wanted something along that theme, only more usable for a few weeks at a time.  I had been looking at used Rialtas for years.  However, as elegant as they may look, after renting one for a week I was a little bit disenchanted.  With two people, you pretty much have to choreograph every move i.e. only one person up and about at a time.  And the bathroom (internal slideout wet bath) was essentially unusable.  Plus, even at only 5'9", I was always brushing my head against the ceiling liner.

So Skinny Winny fits the bill.  It'll get up to 20mpg--the best out there today.  It's also a good hedge:  if the folks in the religion thread are right and armageddon is truly nigh, I can pack her up, strap a date on the roof, and head for the hills. 

Cool! Is it big enough inside? Doable for two people and that's it, I assume. Still, pretty snazzy. I'm curious about what the price range is like if you wouldn't mind giving at least a rough idea (indulging my escapist fanasy). Can you boondock in it at all?

 

[moghopper]

Does this mean that underwater wells are spewing oil into the ocean? Or did the oil companies "cap" or temporarily plug their wells prior to evacuating?

They stop the oil by stuffing the pipes with baby seals.

 

[haha]

I don't make commodity price predictions. However, I will share my current energy portfolio, my basis in each position, and its current price.

Issue                                             Basis                            Current Price 
Suncor                                          $18.53                           $58.20
Danielson                                      $ 4.58                            $12.21
ENSCO                                         $26.50                             $39.66
Dorchester Minerals                     $3.15                             $27.25
Mesa Royalty Trust                       $10.63                           $69.45

Can anyone tell me how to use the table builder? I tried for a while, but couldn't get it to work.

Ha

                     

 

[moghopper]

Can anyone tell me how to use the table builder? I tried for a while, but couldn't get it to work.

In general, I just use the "tt" code for monospace type. It's the typewriter icon while you're editing.


Issue Basis Current Price
Suncor $18.53 $58.20
Danielson $ 4.58 $12.21
ENSCO $26.50 $39.66
Dorchester Minerals $ 3.15 $27.25
Mesa Royalty Trust $10.63 $69.45

 

[haha]

Thanks for the tip, Moghopper.

ha

 

[MJ]

Issue Basis Current Price
Suncor $18.53 $58.20
Danielson $ 4.58 $12.21
ENSCO $26.50 $39.66
Dorchester Minerals $ 3.15 $27.25
Mesa Royalty Trust $10.63 $69.45


If you click the sizing icon, you can increase the size to get a nice readable font (for us failing eyesight seniors)
I didn't know about tt, thanks Moghopper.

 

[tozz]

Yes, brewzano, it's a boondocker's delight!  (You have no idea how proud I am of myself that I now know what the term means...).  Everyone has their own space needs, but I think this would be fine for a couple for extended periods, great for an additional couple of kids or grandkids for weekend trips.  They don't run cheap--$78K to $88K MSRP--but hunt a bit and you can find dealers that will slice 25% off that.  I'll be visiting each and every one of my dear dear FIRE friends on this forum in a few months.  As long as you don't mind the pile of beer cans tossed on your front lawn, I'm pretty low maintenance.

t

Cool!  Is it big enough inside?  Doable for two people and that's it, I assume.  Still, pretty snazzy.  I'm curious about what the price range is like if you wouldn't mind giving at least a rough idea (indulging my escapist fanasy).  Can you boondock in it at all?

 

[greg]

HaHa--We must have purchased SU about the same time. I got out near $40. Like the stock alot. I'll buy back in later. What do you think about uranium stocks, CCJ, Den.to, IUC.to? I'm waiting for a dip on one of those too? Held CCJ pre-split for a while.

--Greg

 

[haha]

HaHa--We must have purchased SU about the same time.  I got out near $40.  Like the stock alot.  I'll buy back in later.  What do you think about uranium stocks, CCJ, Den.to, IUC.to?  I'm waiting for a dip on one of those too?  Held CCJ pre-split for a while.

--Greg

Greg, two or three years ago I looked into uranium stocks but didn't do a good research job and didn't turn up anything I felt confident about. At current prices I am not interested. BHP Billiton recently bought WMC Resources, which I think is the world's 2nd largest uranium miner as well as a large copper producer. At better prices, I would be interested in BHP.

I have been trying to get a handle on the world uranium resource. There is a lot of disagreement. I think there may be a lot of uranium around; and of course there is the dreaded breeder reactor to consider.

At present, I am somewhat more interested in plant building, component building, etc for the nuclear industry.
Geoffrey Immelt at GE is moving heavily this way- see article in recent Forbes- and I am looking for a price to enter GE.

Good luck in your speculations!

Ha

 

[greg]

Haha: I sold WMC after the buy out news. Good company, lots of ore. Close to China. I've been overly sensitive in the sell department. But that doesn't mean I'll be changing soon. I'm waiting for the China dump too. Lots of hidden problems there. I watch peripheral commodity companies supplying to China. Owned Sinopec for a short while.

--Greg

 

[greg]

Haha:

I would like GE except for the finance arm. That part is gonna tumble some day. IMO I read an article a couple years back regarding the best long-term commodity companies to own. They said the ones between the basic commodity and the end product (retail) were the best--the ones that added the most intelligence to a product (DOW is a good example). They usually made about three times the profit of retailers or commodity providers. That's the known sweet spot for me. But, dang, China complicates things again.

--Greg

 

[haha]

Here is an intersting article on oil sands and the possible takeouts down the road.

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/420254910.shtml

I often sell too early too. But this one I think I will ride all the way home.

Ha

 

[greg]

Ha: I have all these weird, truncated mental processes that I have to go thru now to buy and sell stocks. SU was a hormone stock for me because of the low dividend. It is a buy and holder to a normal person, especially at the price you got it at. I put some of the money from SU into FXEN, my Polish gas explorer. I'm waiting on that one thru a couple more years of ups and downs. This one is volatile, no earnings for quite some time--if ever. Thanks for the tar sands info, good stuff. I promise to pack it away and only slightly distort it when I'm ready to use it.

--Greg