True, each situation should be looked at on its own merits. And market psychology does seem to be cyclical in most instances.
However, I don't think that the geology and supply of a non-renewable resource necessarily share this cyclicity.
My guess is that crude and natural gas market prices will fluctuate, but that the mean of these fluctuations going forward will be higher than looking back to the 1990s.
Long term, well chosen energy investments should do well, although they will be volatile. Unfortunately, the volatility is more certain than the ultimate gain. I have a moderate sized position in a driller. The closing value can vary $5000-$7000 a day. It was easier to hold when I was closer to my entry price; but if one sells under these circumstances, all gains will be small ones.
Incidentally, I have posted about energy investments since I joined this board 3 years ago. Plenty of people have voiced the opinion that energy was over-extended, the victim of manipulation, a bubble, etc.
While some of this is undoubtedly true in some degree (not the bubble thesis); I think the hedgehog take-home is that the world-wide rate of hydrocarbon discovery has slowed, and the cost of producing what is left has increased. Meanwhile, a lot of people who formerly pulled rickshaws are driving Mercedes.
So I think at least some oil investments look pretty good!
Ha