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 REWahoo 02-14-2006 08:44 PM

What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Associated Press

CHICAGO – If you're over 50, this test developed by researchers at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center attempts to calculate your risk of death within four years. Of course, it's not foolproof, but the researchers say it can give you a rough idea of your survival chances. The test appears in Wednesday's Journal of the American Medical Association:

1. Age
60-64 years old, 1 point
65-69, 2 points
70-74, 3 points
75-79, 4 points
80-84, 5 points
85 and older, 7 points

2. Male or Female: Male, 2 points

3. Body-Mass Index: Less than 25 (normal weight or less), 1 point
(Calculate by multiplying height in inches times height in inches; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)

4. Diabetes: 2 points

5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points

6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.

7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.

8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.

9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.

12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.
SCORE

0-5 points: less than a 4 percent risk of dying
6-9 points: 15 percent risk
10-13 points: 42 percent risk
14 or more points: 64 percent risk.

Note: Researchers say the 1-point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.

 JPatrick 02-14-2006 08:52 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Looks like I'll be bugging people here for quite some time.

So do I understand that you get bad points for being underweight, but not overweight??

 REWahoo 02-14-2006 08:59 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JPatrick So do I understand that you get bad points for being underweight, but not overweight??
That's the way it looks. I'm guessing an overweight condition severe enough to create mortality issues might manifest itself in other questions, like 11 or 12.

 haha 02-14-2006 09:06 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

They climb all over you for BMI> 60 your whole life; so you finally lose that extra weight. Then you turn 60 and suddenly you're wrong again.

Medicine! ???

Ha

 MJ 02-14-2006 11:44 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

My only exposure to the risk of death is being a male. :-\
I now regret my decision not to get that sex change I dreamed about years ago. ;D

 Dawg52 02-15-2006 07:41 AM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

1 Attachment(s)
I would rather not think about it. Let's day dream about bikini's instead. :)

 Outtahere 02-15-2006 07:46 AM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

The morning local news was talking about this test, one said it doesn't take into account that you could walk out the door and be hit by a bus, or maybe that's the 2 points for being male.

 azanon 02-15-2006 08:08 AM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Note: Researchers say the 1-point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.
Exactly! That lawyer Cheney just shot knows this truth all too well.

 JPatrick 02-15-2006 08:43 AM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Outtahere The morning local news was talking about this test, one said it doesn't take into account that you could walk out the door and be hit by a bus, or maybe that's the 2 points for being male.
Hey, blonde females get hit by buses.* How many points should they get?? ??? ???

 HFWR 02-15-2006 12:25 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Damn, I thought you said "get hit by busts"... :P

 brewer12345 02-15-2006 01:07 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JPatrick Looks like I'll be bugging people here for quite some time. So do I understand that you get bad points for being underweight, but not overweight??
When I spoke to an exec who ran the LTC insurance business at one of the top 3 companies in the field, he told me that their biggest concern in underwriting is not the morbidly obese (which is an issue for them), but the underweight people. Why? They tend to be frail and can be incapable of doing basic stuff forthemselves, yet not actually in bad enough health to drop dead for a long time after they become bedridden.

 JPatrick 02-15-2006 01:11 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

What I gather from all of this is I get to keep my extra 20 pounds(hey I'm tall) and my Corona habit so long as I don't go to the store on the bus.....

Live is good :)

 Martha 02-15-2006 01:26 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

BS on the underweight stuff.

My grandfather died at 99 and probably weighed 99 pounds at the time.

Right now in our waiting room are several nuns. I would guess that at least half are over 90 and that they all weigh less than 100 pounds.

Ever notice that catholic nuns seem to live a long, long, time?

 MRGALT2U 02-15-2006 02:26 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Martha Ever notice that catholic nuns seem to live a long, long, time?*
I have noticed this. I wonder how it seems to them, like
do married men live longer than single men, or does it just seem that way?

:)

JG

 MJ 02-15-2006 02:58 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Martha Ever notice that catholic nuns seem to live a long, long, time?
Hey, they get free room and board, are married their Lord (I think) and get to harass kids in catholic school. Doesn't sound like a bad life. ;D

PC disclaimer: No offense meant. Hope I don't cause any riots.

MJ (Mary Joseph)

 cute fuzzy bunny 02-15-2006 06:58 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Martha Ever notice that catholic nuns seem to live a long, long, time?
I think they just LOOK like they've lived a long, long time.

 LRS 02-15-2006 09:37 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

It's not just looks. There are famous longevity studies being done on nuns. For some reason they live a loooong time, IF they don't smoke. See http://www.modern-psychiatry.com/longevity.htm

Another factor associated with long life is number of orgasms per year. If you're in the 100-orgasm per year club, there is a definite benefit in terms of longevity. So how does this correlate with the nun studies? I don't even want to think about it.

 Helen 02-15-2006 10:12 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LRS There are famous longevity studies being done on nuns. For some reason they live a loooong time
Maybe bladder infections are an untracked reason for death ?

-helen

 Nords 02-16-2006 02:52 PM

Re: What's Your Risk of Death in the Next 4 Years?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LRS If you're in the 100-orgasm per year club, there is a definite benefit in terms of longevity.
Hmmmm... giving or receiving?

About that longevity benefit-- living longer or meeting an unfortunate demise?

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