Are We In The Beginning Stages Of World War 3

[Daneboy]

I'm starting to hear more about this and in a way it sounds plausible - the current and developing situation can be defined in different ways but in any case I see one huge mess that may call for some actual collective sacrifice at some point.

We certainly have been attacked and so has London, Madrid, etc. and there is fighting right now in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and the guy in Iran looks worrisome.

Your thoughts please.

Talking about world war three
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A241021

Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq." "It is a jihad (holy war) for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere." He also called for the "downtrodden" throughout the world, not just Muslims, to join the battle against "tyrannical Western civilization and its leader, America."
http://story.news.ask.com//article/20060727/D8J4B9UG4.html

 

[astromeria]

I got burned out on worry growing up in the 50s expecting to be radioactively incinerated at any moment. Then there was being in my 20s in the 70s--the draft and death in Vietnam, inflation, OPEC, unemployment, interntaional kidnappings, national malaise.

At this point I'm counting on the next administration to extricate us from the madness, maybe even do a good job at some things. C'mon, it could happen!

 

[retire@40]

We already are in WW III. It's a war of ideas instead of a war of nations.

 

[yakers]

We already are in WW III. It's a war of ideas instead of a war of nations.

IMHO, sort of. The deepest understanding I have is that Islam is in its own civil war/revolution/reformation process. Western ideas and "the market" are causing this process.

In one sense this is a good thing in that it if fairly inevitable, as equcation spreads, that open minded ideas will prevail over time. The bad news is the numbers and pecentages of death & violence the west had in its religious wars does not make for a pleasant thought about the process Islam will probably go through.

 

[Nords]

Geez, Dan, in 1994 I prepped a brief that documented over 200 violent armed conflicts in the previous five decades.

We've been in the beginning stages of WWIII since we ended WWII, which was just a rehash of WWI, and I think it goes back a lot further than that-- I blame colonialism.

There've been quite a few collective sacrifices already, both military & civilian. I agree that you've laid your finger on a problem, but I think it's the status quo rather than the start of something new.

Imagine for a moment that the UN declares that WWIII started this morning. What would you do differently, aside from buying defense stocks?

 

[Brat]

My grapevine is reporting that this has become a common opinion of many in the Green Zone.

 

[Daneboy]

Geez, Dan, in 1994 I prepped a brief that documented over 200 violent armed conflicts in the previous five decades.

We've been in the beginning stages of WWIII since we ended WWII, which was just a rehash of WWI, and I think it goes back a lot further than that-- I blame colonialism.

There've been quite a few collective sacrifices already, both military & civilian. I agree that you've laid your finger on a problem, but I think it's the status quo rather than the start of something new.

Imagine for a moment that the UN declares that WWIII started this morning. What would you do differently, aside from buying defense stocks?

You make good points my learned and well experienced collegue, and I hope I can call you that although I have no basis in doing so ...still I'm afraid I can't totally agree with you Nords.

There are certainly plenty of conflicts that have/are breaking out but few have been part of a coordinated effort - although I grant these more current events I mentioned are loosely connected....true the cold war had the potential to begin another WW, but that era passed for the time being - thinking China and Russia in a couple decades - and now we are in another and hopefully answers will come to abort another dive into hell.

There have certainly been sacrifices by our military - bless them and don't get me started on the wasteful spending we can ill afford....but most people go about their lives - some with a ribbon magnet on the car but are pretty much ignoring it...

History will write what this period is we are in...we're too close to know I think..

This smells different to me - I don't think it can be won militarily...and as far as winning hearts and minds - well there are way too many who are never going to be middle-class and have those middle class values that foster democracy and free markets - and who believe what they're leaders/media tell them plus they only have to witness our actions so far to form an opinion that puts us at a deep disadvantage.

Al-Qaida's No. 2 call for the downtrodden - not just muslims - to rise up against US may come to naught, but there are other players out there that hate us pretty good too - Chavez and Morales in South America for just one example - who might make life difficult too - like cutting off oil/gas...if Saudi Arabia, et al, are threatened with upheaval, well then its military big time and that might mean draft being reactivated considering how worn down the volunteer forces and recruitment efforts have become. Then there would certainly be more of a collective sacrifice - something a lot different from our Pres telling us to go out and shop!

I hope this doesn't come across as too depressingly dark and negative

 

[mickeyd]

I think that the Cold War was WWIII. What has been going on since 9/11/01 is WWIV.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

wwiii? isn't that the war to end all wars, being nuclear and all? jihad? armegeddon? a fundi u.s. president vs the what, all powerful al-qaida? (they don't even know a u goes after q, as in quaker.)

i don't understand any of this al-quaida stuff. what are they going to do? try to hurt us? send a hurricane our way? create a tornado upstate new york. set the west on fire? send a tsunami tsomewhere? cause an earthquake under san fran? how powerful do you think those idiots are? all they really have to do is sit back, open a beer or sip some green tea or whatever the hell they drink and let mother nature do their bidding for them during the normal course of the world.

ever notice how when you are feeling good about yourself, you think the world will go on forever; but when you are not feeling so good you think the world is ending?

well, not to be selfish, but the world that is ending is yours, not mine. now would someone please pass the hummus.

"the holy warrior is he who struggles with himself." ~~ the prophet mohammed

 

[REWahoo]

I hope this doesn't come across as too depressingly dark and negative

Why on earth would anyone think that?

I got burned out on worry growing up in the 50s expecting to be radioactively incinerated at any moment. Then there was being in my 20s in the 70s--the draft and death in Vietnam, inflation, OPEC, unemployment, interntaional kidnappings, national malaise.

astro, you alluded to but didn't specifically mention duck & cover, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and what I refer to as "1968: the year from Hell". For those of you not yet born, the events that took place that year made it appear the world had gone mad. Here are a few:

Violent anti-Vietnam War protests in the US and Europe
North Korea captures an Ameican ship and crew (the Pueblo incident)
The Tet Offensive
My Lai massacre
M L King assasinated (riots erupt in several US cities for several days)
Robert F. Kennedy assasinated
Warsaw Pact invades Chechosloviakia with 5,000 tanks
Police clash with anti-war protesters in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention
REW got married.

Dan, I suppose your frame of reference makes a big difference in how gloomy each of us views the current situation. No way to know if this is the beginning of WWIII or not, but it's just another day at the office for me. Wait! I don't go to the office anymore!. OK, maybe it's just another day not at the office.

 

[sgeeeee]

I'm starting to hear more about this and in a way it sounds plausible - the current and developing situation can be defined in different ways but in any case I see one huge mess that may call for some actual collective sacrifice at some point.

We certainly have been attacked and so has London, Madrid, etc. and there is fighting right now in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and the guy in Iran looks worrisome.

Your thoughts please.   

Talking about world war three
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A241021

Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq." "It is a jihad (holy war) for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere." He also called for the "downtrodden" throughout the world, not just Muslims, to join the battle against "tyrannical Western civilization and its leader, America."
http://story.news.ask.com//article/20060727/D8J4B9UG4.html

I guess historians will decide when WWIII began an ended.  Whether they decide that we are witnessing it now will depend on how things play out in the future.  There is still a chance that things begin to cool off rather than escalate over the next months.  If that happens and diplomacy comes back into favor and we find a way toward normalcy, . . . then I don't think this will be considered WWIII.  On the other hand, it is not difficult to draw a dotted line from where we are to a time where European and US cities are under fairly regular terrorist attack, where US and European armies are fighting in 6 or seven different countries around the world, where Iran or North Korea uses a nuclear weapon, . . .  If future events look more like this latter description than the former, then I think historians may well consider this to be WWIII.  And if they do, then my guess is that they will identify the begining of WWIII to be 9/11/01.  

 

[astromeria]

astro, you alluded to but didn't specifically mention...1968: the year from Hell

I cried when we landed on the moon in 69. Not so much because I was wowed by the achievement (although I certainly was), but because it had seemed so long since there was major good news, and it all came flooding out at once.

And now for some really good news...it's time to put the peach cobbler in the oven (sometimes you hafta think small).

 

[haha]

And now for some really good news...it's time to put the peach cobbler in the oven

You sure have gone native down there in Dixie. 

Ha

 

[samclem]

. . . I don't think it can be won militarily. . .

Lots of folks say this, but I think it is often part of a strawman argument when it is followe by "so we need to get out of Iraq" (or Afghanistan, etc). No sane person thinks the fight against Islamic extremists can be won strictly through military means. That doesn't mean that there's no role for military/lethal force in this fight. I'm sure military force is necassary but not sufficient to win. We also need to be careful that winning tactical military victories doesn't result in setting back more important strategic goals (i.e. by alienating potentially friendly populations, etc).

IMHO, sort of. The deepest understanding I have is that Islam is in its own civil war/revolution/reformation process. Western ideas and "the market" are causing this process.

In one sense this is a good thing in that it if fairly inevitable, as equcation spreads, that open minded ideas will prevail over time.

I'd like to agree with you yakers, but history is full of examples when secularism/reason/enlightened thought has been eclipsed by dogmatic extremism for very long periods. I don't think we're at risk of that now, but I don't take for granted that the present situation (across most of the western world) is inevitable. We need to win the ideological war in the most backward regions, and it will take generations. The opponents are very committed, and the western world is not united in opposition yet.

Samuel Huntington was right when he wrote over a decade ago about the "clash of civilizations." We're in it big time now

(edited for clarity)

 

[razztazz]

I'd like to agree with you yakers, but history is full of examples when secularism/reason/enlightened thought has been eclipsed by dogmatic extremism for very long periods.

HA! Ya got that right. Just look at the people running the Administration

 

[bpp]

I don't think this is even close to being WWIII. First of all, most of the world's major powers are on the same "side" in this one, against what are basically a bunch of guerillas (and that's giving them credit for being armed and organized). When you have entire continents lobbing heavy armaments at each other, then I would start thinking of it as WWIII. To get there, I would imagine China deciding to take a stand with North Korea or something. Maybe toss in Russia. Hard to seriously imagine, but who knows.

Maybe a more realistic possibility is that the US and China get to fighting over access to ME oil. Could happen, but I don't see the current squabbling leading to that.

 

[Brat]

With the inventory of oil concentrated in this region I would hardly consider this a squabble. 

I dated a Columbia law student from Lebanon in '62 who explained to me the POV of the locals and predicted exactly what we are seeing today.   

 

[Nords]

"1968: the year from Hell"
REW got married.
Dan, I suppose your frame of reference makes a big difference in how gloomy each of us views the current situation.

1968 was an incredible year for me... my 3rd grade teacher was a major babe!

My nephew the Army Ranger, USMA '07, is staying with us for a couple weeks. As we lounge around the lanai sipping post-dinner frosty beverages, he's found his thoughts returning to Iraq (because his body will be following in the not too distant future). Admittedly West Point puts a somewhat positive spin on the news and the military may not be the most objective source of balanced reporting, but the tactical info he's privy to indicates that the insurgents are spending most of their time & efforts fighting & killing each other. Sure, they kill Americans whenever they get the chances-- which are seldom & dangerous-- but they're focused on killing ethnic groups as they maneuver for position in a post-invasion government.

Iraq's armed forces are learning. They're learning very slowly and they don't exactly seem eager to perform but they're learning. Admittedly all sides will get into trouble, people will get careless, and more will die. But the grassroots civil-affairs success story appears to be largely ignored because it's not bloody or political. I'm not naive enough to believe that democracy will thrive or that Iraq will step up to their own security before Christmas, but the 2008 election will be won by the candidate that preaches Iraqization.

 

[wabmester]

Nords, you must have been involved in war games. What does the pentagon consider the most likely scenario for the next world war? Or is that classified?

My guess would be China vs Taiwan.

 

[Brat]

There are really several 'wars' being fought in the middle east at the moment.  There is a religious war between the Shia and Sunni that has been brewing for at least 40 years; there is a battle for control within Israel between Jewish sects complicated by the fact that Moslem Israeli nationals will be a majority in the foreseeable future; there is a war between the Israelis and those who they pushed out in the late 40s, and there are ethnic groups fighting for territory who were ignored by the British when they carved out countires at the end of the colonial period.  There are darn few saints and a lot of sinners on all sides.

 

[Nords]

Nords, you must have been involved in war games.   What does the pentagon consider the most likely scenario for the next world war?  Or is that classified?
My guess would be China vs Taiwan.

I debriefed all my classified knowledge four years ago, not that I could pretend to have a strategic clue.  And just to make sure that my debriefing was effective we also decommissioned any submarine that I may have stood watch on.

But the current war games-- that would be my spouse.  What follows is my speculation from the exercises in which she's been asked to participate.

Keep in mind that our military is the same one which was so well-prepared & briefed for the fall of the Berlin Wall.  It's also the same military which retroactively discovered (by reading their war plans) that the East Germans would have used the Berlin sewers to invade the Allied zone and kick some serious assets from behind the lines.

With those disclaimers, you're right.  PRC-Taiwan is the current scenario attracting all the thought-tank funding and the exercise money.  OTOH when three carriers crossed tracks near Guam a few weeks ago, PACOM did everything he could to bring as many PRC officers aboard as he could to show them how Americans run an exercise.  The idea is that if we're spending all that time, effort, & money then we might as well "strike fear & trembling into the heart of the enemy".*  The idea is that the U.S. would surge into the Tawain straits, smack both sides smartly upside the head if necessary, and assist in seeking a diplomatic solution.

We're not too happy about the situation in DPRK, either, but it's attracting a lot of reconnaissance & surveillance attention.  (As well as training a whole new generation of steely-eyed killers of the deep.)  That war plan is considered to be well in hand and is just exercised every summer as a logistics scenario.

PACOM's also keeping a surveillance eye (more submarine-sensor wizardry) on terrorism activity throughout the Pacific area and hoping that Israel doesn't screw things up more than they already have...

*In memory of ADM Rickover's speech at the commissioning of the USS OHIO.

 

[wabmester]

China gives me the willies on so many levels. They're smart, ambitious, disciplined, and ruthless. (Can you tell that my wife is Chinese?)

They remind me of America before we got fat and lazy.

 

[califdreamer]

No sane person thinks the fight against Islamic extremists can be won strictly through military means.

So this confirms my suspicions about Dick Cheney?   

 

[unclemick]

Hmmm

Ditto Nord's comments - DPRK - the youngest nephew(recon) is interesting in those thing's he won't talk about - so reading between the lines is fun.

The knot head Marine will be back from his third all expense vacation this winter - suspect his thoughts will be along the lines expressed by Nord's - again attempting to read between the lines from talking to the wife.

heh heh heh

 

[FlowGirl]

Iraq's armed forces are learning.  They're learning very slowly and they don't exactly seem eager to perform but they're learning. 

One of my best friends is just about to come home from his 3rd tour in Iraq. He volunteered for all of his tours and was enthusiastic about the war until this last tour training ISF for 7 months. I've never seen anyone go from optimistic to jaded so darn fast. He's not home yet so don't have the full story but lots of "blah, blah, blah" about the brass caring more about how stuff briefs than what actually gets accomplished and trying not to "choke the Iraqis". Of course nothing new in the military, but his assessment is that the ISF unit they worked with are no better off now than when he started in January. Short time frame and anecdotal for sure, but his frustration over this last tour was enough for him to leave the military... he's getting out the minute he gets back.