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-   -   Life Expectancy (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/life-expectancy-25401.html)

bbbamI 01-27-2007 03:06 PM

Life Expectancy
 
A year ago, I used 85....now I'm up to 92. :-\

Mr._johngalt 01-27-2007 03:46 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I use 60, and I'm 62 now. :)

Actually I pay no attention to this. Just today I'm talking to my Dad
(89). He says, "I think I might make 100!" Could happen as his father,
grandfather, uncle, etc all passed the century mark. Sooooooo,
I have the good genes but I don't allow them to enter into my
retirement planning.

JG

Moemg 01-27-2007 03:51 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I use 90 .My Mom's age though she'll probably make it to 100.

lazygood4nothinbum 01-27-2007 04:50 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
though my grandfather & mother died at 75 because of alzheimer's, i've traced it down only that one line. many of the rest live into their 80s & 90s on all my grandparents' lines. as each generation seems to last a little longer, i plan for 100, but i'm ready to rev up my spending in my 60s just in case.

cute fuzzy bunny 01-27-2007 04:54 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Unless you have a lot of long lived relatives, looks like 85-90 is pretty darn safe. You might live longer and you might need more care at that age, but you'll also probably have a few lower spending/improvisational spending years between now and then.

bssc 01-27-2007 05:06 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I figure 90 because my mother's parents lived to be 94 and 100. My dad's mother only made it into her 60s but she smoked and drank. However, he is turning 75 soon and in good health.

KM 01-27-2007 05:07 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I use 100. I thought I was odd, but it made me feel better. Guess it is not so odd after all.... :D

LeatherneckPA 01-27-2007 05:17 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
Hard, stress-filled life of fighting crime. The average life-expectancy in my line of work is only 7 years post-retirement. My goal is to make it 35 years, I use 85 in my planning.

Silly reason for that has NOTHING to do with anything other than I decided many years back that I wanted to collect as much in pension as I have in salary over the years. :laugh:

Bikerdude 01-27-2007 07:00 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredbop
Hard, stress-filled life of fighting crime.

And all those donuts. ;D

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Goonie 01-27-2007 08:54 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I've been using 85-95.....but hope to hit the century mark! Actually I tell folks I plan to live to about 120, because they say the good die young.....and since I'm an ornery cuss, I'd like to stick around for a LOOOONG time just to p*ss people off! ;D

bbbamI 01-27-2007 09:14 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Meadbh 01-27-2007 10:46 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
Women in my family tend to make it to 90, so that's what I use.

Cb 01-27-2007 11:51 PM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I've used Vanguard's Joint Life Expectancy web app (there's a link in FIREcalc) to find the 95th percentile ages for my wife and I - that turns out to be about 102 years of age, or a 55 year retirement. :P

I think it's worth mentioning that modeling retirements longer than ~38 years or so in FIREcalc eliminates much of the late 60's / early '70's rough patch. So if you're using FIREcalc to model lengthy retirements it might also be worthwhile plotting the trendline for 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 year durations.

Cb

sgeeeee 01-28-2007 12:03 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
See the last two links in Section 1.3:

http://www.golio.net/My_Homepage_Files/Page9.html

Peaceful_Warrior 01-28-2007 01:22 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I don't use one. My presumption is that I'm going for FI more than RE, and therefore should be able to RE indefinitely if I am FI.

peggy 01-28-2007 06:38 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I use at least age 100. Several relatives on both my mom's and dad's side of the family have lived to 90 and beyond.



cute fuzzy bunny 01-28-2007 10:55 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
Really long firecalc runs sort of screw up your results because you end up with a lot of runs that "succeed" because they ran out of data.

For example...for a 40 year run, ever individual run that starts after 1965 will will use one year less data...in other words the run starting in 1967 will use the next 40 years of data, then the one starting in 68 will use 39 years, etc. There is no "wraparound" or "invention of data" to fill out shortened data sets.

I sort of adopted 20 years as the right "run length". If you've done your budget well and incorporated a realistic set of costs that get you by any 20 year period including the depression and the 65-74 sideways period, you're probably going to get a lot more successive successful 20 year periods in.

If you're a real glutton for punishment (and presuming you got 100% success), try taking the detailed data from your 20 year run, take the lowest successful terminal portfolio size and do another 20 year run with that as your "new" portfolio size. Then you'll have worst-cased your worst-case in creating a scenario that survives TWO trips through both of the worst investment climates in US history.

youbet 01-28-2007 10:59 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I think your source of retirement income has a pretty profound impact on the age you chose. For example, if you're retiring primarily on a generous COLA pension plus SS, it matters little what age you pick for a life expectancy estimate. You're all set no matter how long you live. If you're retiring primarily on your portfolio, chosing a 100+ year life expectancy estimate would probably mean working longer to accumulate a larger portfolio.

For those of you picking a high number, such as 100+ or infinite, are you actually willing to work longer than you'd have to if you chose a number like 90 yrs old?

DW and I are retired on a combination of sources: small COLA pension, small non-COLA pension, future SS and 401K/IRA. We picked 90 for a life expectancy planning number. Seemed like a reasonable compromise.


lazygood4nothinbum 01-28-2007 11:03 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
just ran 38 years per cb & 20 years per cutefb and my withdrawal rate goes up from the 50 year run. i'm starting to like this retirement thing.

Cut-Throat 01-28-2007 11:09 AM

Re: Life Expectancy
 
I no longer focus on lifespan, but building income streams from Cola S.S. and Cola annuities that will support us for life. This will ensure that half of my principal is gone by the time I'm age 85. Won't have to be concerned with market movements or lifespans.

The other half of Principal will stay invested for life's emergencies.




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