Shabber2
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2007
- Messages
- 55
OK, don't get too worked up about my Subject line, we all know only a true clairvoyant could know the bottom, but here is my quick analysis from about a month ago:
I looked at our bear market and compared it to what a 2001 downturn could look like.
In 2001, I see a 11,700 high falling to a 9,800 low and then a 10,500 meander along. Meaning a 15.9% fall and 10% meander (Definition See Footnote Below).
Translated to current a 14,093 high makes it a 11,857 bottom and a 12,624 meander.
So, seems to me pretty reasonable to see us fall and continue down to this 12k mark, and we can expect the 12,600 meander.
Technically speaking aside, I look at what could turn things around for 2008 and don't see it. we are dealing with the war costs, oil prices, mortgage meltdown, a Democrat being President, no home equity loan spending and a queasy job market. Nothing saying, "Hey we are just about to turn the corner."
(Here is my caveat to this...if we bust through 11,800 I don't see another nice bottom until 10k. This is too painful to think about, so I will ignore it.)
Footnote:
Meander: Noun, meaning a winding path or course
Thoughts?
I looked at our bear market and compared it to what a 2001 downturn could look like.
In 2001, I see a 11,700 high falling to a 9,800 low and then a 10,500 meander along. Meaning a 15.9% fall and 10% meander (Definition See Footnote Below).
Translated to current a 14,093 high makes it a 11,857 bottom and a 12,624 meander.
So, seems to me pretty reasonable to see us fall and continue down to this 12k mark, and we can expect the 12,600 meander.
Technically speaking aside, I look at what could turn things around for 2008 and don't see it. we are dealing with the war costs, oil prices, mortgage meltdown, a Democrat being President, no home equity loan spending and a queasy job market. Nothing saying, "Hey we are just about to turn the corner."
(Here is my caveat to this...if we bust through 11,800 I don't see another nice bottom until 10k. This is too painful to think about, so I will ignore it.)
Footnote:
Meander: Noun, meaning a winding path or course
Thoughts?