ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Something I've been thinking about for a few months, actually -- made all the more front-and-center with the huge losses in so many retirement accounts.
A recurring theme in society and economics seems to be the unsustainability of so many post-WW2 economic blessings.
The immediate post-war era was an era of job security, top-notch benefits, affordable health care and first-rate defined benefit pensions. All of these helped lead to a less stressful existence with little need to keep an eye on Wall Street to keep your long, comfortable retirement dreams alive.
Obviously, all of these have been eroded in light of changing world economies and demographic shifts. And yet, looking back in history these concepts have never been so close to a "birthright" as they were, say, 50 years ago. And it's looking more like it never will be again.
Job security? Gone, at least in the private sector.
Health insurance? Getting chintzier and chintzier for employees and almost non-existent for retirees, especially those not yet retired or close to it.
Pensions? Anyone in the private sector under the age of about 40 can forget about those too, and many over 40 have already had their benefits "frozen" and replaced with their "savior," the 401K plan.
Social Security? I don't think too many people under the age of 50 is counting on much of that.
Taxes? The more debt we pile on, the worse each generation has it. And the less they get in return for their tax dollars.
The bottom line is that virtually every economic and demographic factor is conspiring to make the concept of "retiring" while healthy and able bodied seem to be more and more out of reach. Since the 1970s or so -- once foreign competition began cranking up -- once emerging markets began seriously developing (Japan) and other European war-ravaged nations had all their infrastructure back -- it just seems like on ALL these fronts each successive generation is destined to get a worse deal. And I wish I saw an end in sight to that, but I don't. Will history record there were three, maybe four, generations of Americans for whom retirement -- much less *early* retirement -- was an attainable middle-class concept?
In the end, I'm beginning to think this thing called "retirement" is little more than an historical aberration, created by an artificial boom in U.S. manufacturing and information sciences created by WW2. The aftermath of that war made the U.S. industrial infrastructure the only major economy not ravaged by war, leading to unsustainable prosperity.
I really hope I'm wrong and I do still expect to be able to retire -- and maybe even before my full SS eligibility at age 67 -- but as little as 3-4 years ago I was confident that I could be out by age 55. I have zero confidence in 55 and almost none in 60 today. There just seem to be way too many headwinds for younger generations to overcome -- at least in the private sector. And I suspect at some point, even the public sector's retirement security will fall victim to increasing public unrest over paying higher and higher taxes to protect someone else's retirement -- a retirement they no longer feel is possible for themselves.
And now, bring on the last hour of trading. -200 already so far, and the last hour has been very ugly lately.
A recurring theme in society and economics seems to be the unsustainability of so many post-WW2 economic blessings.
The immediate post-war era was an era of job security, top-notch benefits, affordable health care and first-rate defined benefit pensions. All of these helped lead to a less stressful existence with little need to keep an eye on Wall Street to keep your long, comfortable retirement dreams alive.
Obviously, all of these have been eroded in light of changing world economies and demographic shifts. And yet, looking back in history these concepts have never been so close to a "birthright" as they were, say, 50 years ago. And it's looking more like it never will be again.
Job security? Gone, at least in the private sector.
Health insurance? Getting chintzier and chintzier for employees and almost non-existent for retirees, especially those not yet retired or close to it.
Pensions? Anyone in the private sector under the age of about 40 can forget about those too, and many over 40 have already had their benefits "frozen" and replaced with their "savior," the 401K plan.
Social Security? I don't think too many people under the age of 50 is counting on much of that.
Taxes? The more debt we pile on, the worse each generation has it. And the less they get in return for their tax dollars.
The bottom line is that virtually every economic and demographic factor is conspiring to make the concept of "retiring" while healthy and able bodied seem to be more and more out of reach. Since the 1970s or so -- once foreign competition began cranking up -- once emerging markets began seriously developing (Japan) and other European war-ravaged nations had all their infrastructure back -- it just seems like on ALL these fronts each successive generation is destined to get a worse deal. And I wish I saw an end in sight to that, but I don't. Will history record there were three, maybe four, generations of Americans for whom retirement -- much less *early* retirement -- was an attainable middle-class concept?
In the end, I'm beginning to think this thing called "retirement" is little more than an historical aberration, created by an artificial boom in U.S. manufacturing and information sciences created by WW2. The aftermath of that war made the U.S. industrial infrastructure the only major economy not ravaged by war, leading to unsustainable prosperity.
I really hope I'm wrong and I do still expect to be able to retire -- and maybe even before my full SS eligibility at age 67 -- but as little as 3-4 years ago I was confident that I could be out by age 55. I have zero confidence in 55 and almost none in 60 today. There just seem to be way too many headwinds for younger generations to overcome -- at least in the private sector. And I suspect at some point, even the public sector's retirement security will fall victim to increasing public unrest over paying higher and higher taxes to protect someone else's retirement -- a retirement they no longer feel is possible for themselves.
And now, bring on the last hour of trading. -200 already so far, and the last hour has been very ugly lately.
