What about Ford now?

laurence

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I understand that Ford has the best chance of the three to make it through this unscathed, and is least likely to have it's shareholder equity wiped out. Would you consider Ford a buy under $2/share?

I'm debating between buying GE and Ford with my play/testosterone account. I have about $8,700 to play with and it's money I'd hate to but ultimately can afford to lose (i.e, this is not my 401k or my emergency fund etc.). Thoughts?
 
Imagine, a couple of thousand shares of F and half your play account still available! I do understand your temptation. I couldn't resist GM at 6.30 and bought 200 shares. The first individual stock I've bought in 10 years or so.

Coach
 
Yes, I think Ford can emerge.
But just because they emerge does not make them a good investment. They still cannot build a car worth $h!t.
 
Having worked with Ford on several financial and quality issues I would think GE is a better alternative.

However if you want to take a flyer on a company I would reccomend MLAB instead. Nice small quickly growing company with real upside that pays a dividend that is growing nicely. 60 million dollar company market cap with nice product line rated very nicely in Value Line small cap and good looking financials from what I viewed this weekend in research. I prefer not to lose any money if possible.
 
As a rule, I don't buy individual stocks, but I bought a little over a thousand shares of Ford on Friday @ $1.86. I'm a car enthusiast, and Ford looks to have some good product coming down the pipeline. Their recent quality scores have improved a lot, and their bread-and-butter vehicle, the F150 pickup truck, has been redesigned and looks like a winner. They've also got a new small car coming (the European Fiesta), a redesigned Taurus, and an updated Mustang that is supposed to be quite a bit better than the last iteration.

I'm not expecting a quick jump in the stock price, but over the long-term, I think they'll rebound significantly. If not, I'm only out a couple of grand.
 
I have no doubt Ford will continue as a company.
However, I have a fair amount of concern that any common stock holders will get wiped out. Given the choice of GE or F, I would go with GE.
Given the choice of F or GM, I would go with F.
 
What about the dividend between the 2 of them. GE is about 9% right now and F is 0.
 
What about the dividend between the 2 of them. GE is about 9% right now and F is 0.

Are really debating which is the better value play now? :ROFLMAO:

One has a failed business model, and one is having a rough patch.......;)
 
Laurence, if you want to invest in the auto industry, what about auto parts manufacturers? There will be a lot of OLD cars on the road for the next little while. ;)
 
What about the dividend between the 2 of them. GE is about 9% right now and F is 0.

Can someone expand on this? Will they cut this? Did I just ask someone to look into a crystal ball?

If I can get a 9% dividend, I think that just added a lot of clarity to my decision.
 
Laurence, if you want to invest in the auto industry, what about auto parts manufacturers? There will be a lot of OLD cars on the road for the next little while. ;)

Yeah, like tire and battery makers for example.

While the car makers and financial companies get all the press coverage due to the bailouts that they requested, there are so many other companies in other sectors that are also beaten down bad and can survive with no bailouts. The latter group interests me more. I'd rather do my bottom fishing there.

In any event, sprinkle your money around. Nothing hurts more than when the economy recovers, the market is going up but your single choice stock is left in the mud to die. Why buy just one beaten down stock if you can diversify among several?
 
Can someone expand on this? Will they cut this? Did I just ask someone to look into a crystal ball?

If I can get a 9% dividend, I think that just added a lot of clarity to my decision.

GE said that they won't cut the dividend this year but who knows. Bush#1 also said no new taxes so take it with a grain of salt. The dividend is a bit high so I wouldn't doubt if it gets cut but it'll still be better than Ford with 0.

Unless the share price rises I would think a dividend cut is in the cards at some point.
 
Like most of what Berkshire Hathaway has purchased in the last 12 months you can get GE, one of their selections for less than Warren Buffet. At least if it went to zero you'd always have that in your defense. And you'll get a 2.25% refund of your purchase quarterly for a while anyway.
 
I'll take a dividend of half that and be happy.

NW-Bound, I hear ya, but over 90% of my portfolio is in a "4 pillars" alignment, so I won't feel too bad.

Of course, now it's trading above $13, why that seems pricey I don't know but it's thrown water on my "trading" fire.
 
My idea of an "investment" in ford would be to buy a clapped out Taurus for $400, drive it when I have to take the H-1 freeway and scrap it when it won't go anymore. Rinse, repeat and, oh yes! YMMV
 
According to the balance sheet the total shareholder equity of Ford is a negative -2 billion. Meaning the company is technically insolvent. (GM is in far far worse shape). Or to put it another way each shareholder of Ford owes approximately $1 dollar to the creditors.

In contrast GE has 111 Billion worth of shareholder equity, made 4 billion last quarter and 18 billion last year. The huge unknown for GE is how much of the massive loans that GE capital has outstanding are going to be paid back.
 
In contrast GE has 111 Billion worth of shareholder equity, made 4 billion last quarter and 18 billion last year.
And approximately $100B of that $111B is intangible. So, some would note that is $10B of tangible equity with $550B in debt.
 
And approximately $100B of that $111B is intangible. So, some would note that is $10B of tangible equity with $550B in debt.

How much tangible equity does Ford have?? Are you including brand valuation as tangible equity? I think most folks think the word "GE" denotes higher quality than the blue oval with the "Ford" on it.......;)
 
And approximately $100B of that $111B is intangible. So, some would note that is $10B of tangible equity with $550B in debt.

Well without getting into a debate about the quality of tangible and intangible assets on a balance sheet lets look at the big picture.

A GE Bull can look at the companies financials and conclude.
This is a 125 year old company with a history of growing profits, dividends and developing management. It is still very profitable, has a triple AAA credit rating (at least today)., and the company is selling for roughly book value. Certainly, the GE will be impacted by the great recession but it survived the great depression and even if it is force to slash its dividend in 1/2 I am still getting 2-3x on money that I'd get for a Treasury bond or CD..

A GE Bear can say GE is really an unregulated loan sharking operation, with a large collection of other business that are probably profitable but who knows. GE's balance sheet and profit statements are the work of creative accounting. If the company isn't technically insolvent it will soon be in the furture when hundreds of billions of loans that GE capital has on its books default.

For the last year or so GE Bears have had the more believable story according to Mr. Market.

In contrast when I look at Ford, I only see the bear story. This is company that lost 14 billion last year, and hasn't had a profitable year since 2005. The balance sheet is saddle with a mountain of debt and its only assets are things like Volvo which in world with a surplus of auto capacity aren't in high demand. Unless the economy recovers dramatically the only way it will survive is with government help which will almost certainly wipeout shareholders ala AIG.

As far as can tell the only reason to buy Ford stock is the greater fool theory, somebody want to make a case for owning the stock over the long-term?
 
As far as can tell the only reason to buy Ford stock is the greater fool theory, somebody want to make a case for owning the stock over the long-term?

Ford may be getting a break. Looks like President Obama wants to help all the unions that endorsed him, like the UAW. Of course, anything that strengthens the UAW weakens Ford further, but I digress........:whistle:
 
Ford may be getting a break. Looks like President Obama wants to help all the unions that endorsed him, like the UAW. Of course, anything that strengthens the UAW weakens Ford further, but I digress........:whistle:

I smell a soapbox post LOL. Yes, I am sure that UAW take over of Ford will be fabulous news for shareholders :nonono:
 
I'm looking a a serious gamble with Ford. Not their stock, but their bonds. If I buy the bonds, I may end up with an equity position, unlike those who buy the stock. Whether the equity position is worth anything is the gamble.
 
I do think Ford bonds are potentially interesting. I've invested in several high yield bonds in companies like BAC, and ALD where I think the stock is too risky but the bonds or preferred stock is interesting. Obviously we are completely uncharted waters in how bond holders will be treated in partly government owned business. (I am assuming Ford will eventual receive government aid).

The good news is that uncertainity helps level the field for us unsophisticated investors vs the people like Brewer or Saluki who in the past actually understood what should happen :). My gut level is the government will be fairly kind to bond holders, since they tend to have deep pockets and make large campaign contributions, and of course are TOO BIG TO FAIL.
 
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