Predict Market Response to Obama on Feb 24, 2009

[ERD50]

So far, it seems that every time Obama or his staff talk about the economy, the market dives. Obama will address America this Tuesday. Will the market like what it hears?

What say you?


-ERD50

PS - sorry for the typo in the POLL, date should be Feb 24, not 29.....

arghh, also messed up the date to end the poll (this is my first poll, sorry), meant for poll to end Feb 24 AM.

 

[Dawg52]

Down down down...........


Sorry.....I always get a kick out of this video.

 

[Steve O]

I say DOW 6000

 

[Steve O]

Im gonna do some buying when we get there

 

[ERD50]

I expected THIS video!

YouTube - Jeff Beck/Going Down/1983

Where IS HFWR?

-ERD50

 

[haha]

The market has to go up. Why not? Obama is bringing change, and we are all longing for change, aren't we?

I feel very good about this. Some people including me were getting to be too well off; Obama has changed this.

I am so happy.

Ha

 

[ERD50]

I am so happy.

Ha

Hah. "change" isn't always everything it's cracked up to be, is it?

Oh man, I guess we gotta laugh to keep from cryin'.


-ERD50

 

[CuppaJoe]

ERD50, I edited the poll; let me know if you want any other changes.

 

[CuppaJoe]

Down down down...........


Sorry.....I always get a kick out of this video.

What a great example of sports narration. They couldn't pay the guy too much for that!

 

[ERD50]

ERD50, I edited the poll; let me know if you want any other changes.

Thanks, that is great. -ERD50

 

[samclem]

I'm guessing there will be enough deliberate leaks and trial balloons before the speech that the market will have already priced in the effects of any policies contained in the plan. What can't be priced in is the way the speech comes across and the take of the pundits. If the speech is some kind of fireside chat that is well received by the press and they believe it might rally the American peope, then the market might actually go up despite the actual policies he's pitching. If this happens, it might be a good selling opportunity, since the market will likely go down once the backslapping stops and the policies take hold.

Of course, I'm a dyed-inthe-wool indexer without the strength of his convictions in these market timing issues, so don't mind me.

 

[ls99]

Market will dive, smooth pontification by the One notwithstanding.
Reality is beginning to collide with academic theories.

On to the Tea party!

 

[ERD50]

Well, I originally voted "disappointed". But the market is down today (Monday), so maybe even if the talk is seen as neutral the markets might climb just from a sort of release of pent up negativity?

Hope so anyway. - ERD50

 

[FinanceDude]

The market has to go up. Why not? Obama is bringing change, and we are all longing for change, aren't we?

I feel very good about this. Some people including me were getting to be too well off; Obama has changed this.

I am so happy.

Ha

OK, what nights are you doing standup, I'll be there!

 

[ziggy29]

Well, I originally voted "disappointed". But the market is down today (Monday), so maybe even if the talk is seen as neutral the markets might climb just from a sort of release of pent up negativity?

Nah. I don't think this market has any limit to its negativity and pessimism.

 

[Gpond]

Rumor is he is going the California route and going to push for tax increases.

 

[Martha]

I think no matter who talks, the market drops.

 

[ziggy29]

I think no matter who talks, the market drops.

I agree -- for months now, regardless of who's in charge, the market has made its vote of no confidence repeatedly clear. It voted "no confidence" on Bush and Paulson, it's voting "no confidence" on Obama and Geithner, and it's repeatedly voted "no confidence in Hell" on Bernanke regardless of administration.

 

[Westernskies]

I am thinking that this video might be a good Democratic response to the speech:

YouTube - tammy wynette stand by your man

 

[Gpond]

I am thinking that this video might be a good Democratic response to the speech:

Did you mean Republican response? Obama is a democrat. Republican response:

YouTube - Rush Limbaugh - I Hope Obama Fails

 

[youbet]

I think no matter who talks, the market drops.

It's not a matter of who is talking..... it's a matter of it being all talk and no substance. Eloquent, superbly crafted speeches. Crappy strategies.

 

[ziggy29]

It's not a matter of who is talking..... it's a matter of it being all talk and no substance. Eloquent, superbly crafted speeches. Crappy strategies.

Certainly you don't mean to imply that Geithner's "strategy" to deal with the banks and their toxic assets was short on details, do you?

 

[ERD50]

I think no matter who talks, the market drops.

It's not a matter of who is talking..... it's a matter of it being all talk and no substance. Eloquent, superbly crafted speeches. Crappy strategies.

Yes, I think the market would respond favorably if a good strategy were clearly presented. I sure as heck don't know what that would be, this is a very complex situation.

However, I feel very confident that the current bills/plans are NOT the solution, and I'm pretty sure they will just prolong the problem rather than "fix" it.

First step - put together a bill that people could actually understand, something way short of 1000 pages. Who doesn't think that there is junk hiding in there? And that becomes part of the problem, no one has confidence that these plans can work. What problems does it even address? I thought the incentives for manufacturers of certain wooden arrows was going to help solve the crisis. Now what the heck happened there?

Martha, so you are saying that the market would not respond positively to a well thought out and well communicated plan?

-ERD50

 

[samclem]

Certainly you don't mean to imply that Geithner's "strategy" to deal with the banks and their toxic assets was short on details, do you?

Wow, this must be an artifact of the Digital TV conversion. Ziggy, are you getting digital with an augmented soundtrack? The audio I received at my house during Geithner's speech was definitely of lower data content than the one you received.

I'm thinking of getting one of those "High Definition Radios" so I can listen to the administration's pronouncements and plans and hear the details. The audio I get now is low-def analog: You can kinda make out a blurry object, but the closer you zoom in, the more it pixelates.

I kinda felt sorry for Geithner. Did you ever get called on in class to answer a question about last night's reading--but you hadn't done the reading? Hadn't read the previous night's assignment, either? It's possible to talk for a few minutes about a "plan" that you haven't built yet, but I'm not sure it fools anyone.

For a hard, unsympathetic look at the messages sent so far by the team in power and the effects on the confidence of the market, take a look at this article. In part:
:

The latest example came yesterday, when equity markets showed early strength after a dreadful week when they had fallen nearly 6%. Then investors started to absorb a three-paragraph morning statement from five branches of the Obama financial regulatory team asserting that the government "stands firmly behind the banking system during this period of financial strain to ensure it will be able to perform its key function of providing credit to households and businesses." Stocks headed south around 10 a.m. and didn't stop until they'd lost another 3.4% or so. The nearby chart of the Dow since Election Day is a running tally of ebbing confidence in the new Administration.

Yesterday's statement continued the Obama Treasury's pattern of promising undefined "help" at a time when people are as frightened of the government as they are of anything else.

 

[TromboneAl]

Yes, I think the market would respond favorably if a good strategy were clearly presented. I sure as heck don't know what that would be, this is a very complex situation.

Right, I don't think there is a good strategy. Every idea has such major drawbacks that it is easy to pick apart. Doing nothing is also not a good strategy.