June 29, 2009 SPX closed at 927

[haha]

Within 24 months, is it more likely to gain 20%, or lose 20%? If you had to choose, which way would you bet?

I would take the bear bet, though I guess it is statistically weaker due to the long term upward bias in the market.

Ha

 

[FUEGO]

June 29, 2011 - better chance to see a 20% gain than a 20% loss. Things will probably look a lot better fundamentally in the economy by then. GDP growth will likely be nicely positive. Unemployment should be starting to come down by then. The market will react. Just my $0.02.

Big unknowns still unemployment, housing, and credit/banks.

 

[samclem]

I'd guess it's more likely to be up 20% than down 20%. If I had to guess, it will be up 5-10% in 24 months. But, inflation will be accelerating, maybe at 8% and headed up, so things won't be going well in a real sense.

 

[sunshine]

I bet on up 20% unless Congress keeps meddeling...then all bets are off.

 

[DblDoc]

Again all my crystal ball shows is that flaming eye thing. Of more improtance to those of us invested diversely and globally where will the FTSE Total World Index be?

DD

 

[ERD50]

My immediate reaction was to say 20% GAIN, but then I checked and we are up 38% from the recent 671 low (March 6th). So add another 20% on top of that, and that would be ~ 66% gain in 2 years and 3 months.

Seems like a lot to expect. I think we are more likely to tread some water from here, not enough conviction to vote either way.

-ERD50

 

[aaronc879]

Given those 2 choices I voted Gain 20%. I think it'll probably be barely 10% though.

 

[M Paquette]

Again all my crystal ball shows is that flaming eye thing.

Try to jiggle it around a bit. Might be loose.


I vote all of the above. In the next 24 months, we'll see down 20% and up 20%. Of course, the order is important...

 

[haha]

June 29, 2011 - better chance to see a 20% gain than a 20% loss. Things will probably look a lot better fundamentally in the economy by then. GDP growth will likely be nicely positive. Unemployment should be starting to come down by then. The market will react. Just my $0.02.

Big unknowns still unemployment, housing, and credit/banks.

I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?

Ha

 

[FUEGO]

I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?

Oh - in that case, I have no clue. Maybe still slightly higher chance of +20% strictly based on recent momentum? With recent volatility, either one is likely within 24 months.

 

[audreyh1]

Well I interpreted value after 24 months.

 

[haha]

Well I interpreted value after 24 months.

Yeah, I see. It really isn't clear. Oh well, another meaningless poll.

Ha

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I will. Will it higher. See Im concentrating now. Its going higher for the next 2 years. Then we will have another massive drop off. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter...

 

[Texas Proud]

Try to jiggle it around a bit. Might be loose.


I vote all of the above. In the next 24 months, we'll see down 20% and up 20%. Of course, the order is important...

LOL.... my boss would say it is going down 20% first...

I think up myself...

 

[freebird5825]

I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?

Ha

Bullish here! There is a limit to pain...

 

[CuppaJoe]

Up!

My newsletter suggests that anything under 1000 is a sweet buying opportunity.

 

[ziggy29]

There is a limit to pain...

What doesn't kill us makes us stronger, huh?