Anyone have any predictions for 2010 markets?

O

Orchidflower

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I keep looking for one of the financial gurus :greetings10: to start a thread about what is going to happen--or your predictions--for the 2010 financial markets, so I am posting this as a hint to those far more educated in finance than I am....hint, hint.
 
I will go out on a limb and predict it won't be quite as exciting as '08 and '09 - beyond that who knows.

DD
 
I watched CNBC Squawk Box this morning and just caught a little of it. Their folks said something like they expect the market to not go down and go up slowly...or maybe not.
They are always, always covering their a*s. Then they said it will be interesting to see if we go into a deflationary mode or an inflationary mode. Seems nobody has a good educated guess--except it won't be so much "fun" as in the past recent time.
From what I've read, tho, seems as if it will go up...slowly maybe, but up. Anyone want to refute that one?
 
Orchidflower said:
I watched CNBC Squawk Box this morning and just caught a little of it. Their folks said something like they expect the market to not go down and go up slowly...or maybe not.
They are always, always covering their a*s. Then they said it will be interesting to see if we go into a deflationary mode or an inflationary mode. Seems nobody has a good educated guess--except it won't be so much "fun" as in the past recent time.
From what I've read, tho, seems as if it will go up...slowly maybe, but up. Anyone want to refute that one?
Click to expand...

I agree it will go up.... eventually. I find CNBC entertaining at times, but not informative.

DD
 
Dow = 12476...will reach 13000 but drop back.
Lots of selling at end of the year to capture LTCGs before 2011 increase in taxes.
Employment drops only to 8.9%
Elections and partisan politics gets ugly, GOP regains some seats. Balance is
restored. This is considered a good thing from a market perspective.
Israel attacks Iran, huge swings in the market cause panic, but it quickly recovers.
Tiger realizes he has been over compensating, comes out the closet.
TJ
ps if any my predictions come true, I'll be better than Nostradamus ;-)
 
There are two camps as to the market outlook....

The rapid recovery crowd (V-shaped recession) predicts continued growth, job gains, and a rapidly rising market. They base their outlook on historical recovery cycles.

The slow recover crowd (L-shaped recovery) predicts little growth, no job gains, housing in the celler, many more bankruptcies and bank failures, and a flat or falling market. From their point of view the market is overpriced and set for a fall. This crowd bases their outlook on the many problems/issues that the country and the economy needs to overcome for a recovery.
 
I predict the market will be unpredictable in the short term (like a year) as always. I predict the market will go up long term.
 
Here is what I hope will happen, and could even take place (like everything else)
*DOW will hit 11,000+ this summer. After that I hope it can stay there for the remainder of the year....but my prediction is 11,500 for years end.
*Dollar will strengthen in short term and fade later in the year (I hope, for my retirement needs). In my case I need the Pound to get stronger on the dollar in the next 1.5 years.
*My bet for the next 5 years is for continuing but slow growth with the DOW hitting 14,000 by 2013.
*The US will wise up and start making small pickups again like others in the world that will get close to 30mpg like my old one did back in the 70's (just a pet peeve on my part, I want a small pickup when I retire...and they don't make them anymore)
*Bankers will get by with getting paid about the same as they always have, they just get it in different ways and any effort to stop them by other people will be half hearted. We complain, they still will get it.
 
Could we stop with the useless DOW predictions and start playing with useless S&P500 ones?

S&P500 is a better metric as was discussed in other threads. So, here is my random S&P500 dart throw: 700 at some point before the end of 2010.

I am guessing it would continue to go up in first 1-2 quarters, then will start going down again, by a lot, when or before the second wave of housing resets takes place and economy starts going down again.

Happy New Year!

P.S. Would I bet all my money of this scenario? Nope... Should I? I guess we'll find out...
 
For those of you with a small fun-money allocation in your portfolio, there is currently a huge gold bubble right now. Gold does not have an annualized 10-year return of 17% normally in the long term, but the 110% return from last year sure makes it look like it. I predict it to be the most lucrative fund to short for 2010.
 
I will be an optimistic and say wtih a new decades comes a new bull market.

But I won't bet my money on that (I'll dollar cost average into the market, up or down).
 
S&P500 up 10% by end of 2010.

There!

Audrey

P.S. I can give no logical reasoning behind my prediction as it is a wild-ass guess! :D

Well, actually there is some logic behind it. After a 26.4% gain in 2003 recovering from a bear market (this may not include dividends), the S&P500 went on to gain 9% in 2004. My best guess is a close repeat.
 
I would never put down a guess of a level where the Dow or the S&P will be exactly. I find it tough enough to guess its general direction: up or down. Of course I mean direction in the intermediate sense, meaning in 3 months to 1 year out, not next week. Even then, there is never any certainty in life, only probabilities. Too many things can happen with wars, politics, etc...

The above said, I will say that I think the market will be generally up. I mean that the chance for it to be up is higher than for it to go down, barring some "black swan" events.

Of course, there might be scary downdrafts like we have had this year. Remember how we recovered from the Oct-Nov 08 low, then right after the Inauguration the market took a nose dive until March 09. Scary time, wasn't it?

Beyond making some guesses, let me ask you all this question: "What are you doing with your guess?". If nothing, then why bother? Even if you pick the standard J.P.Morgan's answer "It will fluctuate", at what level will you [-]sell[/-] rebalance?

Here's my answer. I am holding my equity positions, which comprise 71% of my portfolio as I write this. No plan to sell yet until I see something to change my mind.
 
I don't do anything with my guesses. I treat them all as wild-ass guesses.

If after distributions, taxes and withdrawals my portfolio is out of balance by around 10%, I rebalance.

Audrey
 
My guess, Wilshire 5000 at ~10K, Russell 3000 at ~55, S&P 500 at 850, DJI at 8500. How's that for WAG's?
 
I've got the feeling that real estate (single family homes) will pick up. We recently bought a home in Sun City Center, FL. After the price had been reduced and we made the contract to purchase, there were numerous callls on that property. We found out through our realtor, a friend who lives two doors down. We had previously looked at a couple other houses that peaked our interest and before we knew it, they were purchased. Having been a realtor myself, I always look at the closings published in the Sunday paper and I can see that they are increasing. The prices may not be climbing but the activity is there. I'll bet our new house doubles in value within 10 years. After all, we didn't just buy it cause we needed to move, we thought it was a good investment.
 
Yes, housing has clearly bottomed and is on the gradual rise.

It must be! I'm now building a house! And I sold my previous house in 2005!

Audrey :D
 
harley said:
My guess, Wilshire 5000 at ~10K, Russell 3000 at ~55, S&P 500 at 850, DJI at 8500. How's that for WAG's?
Click to expand...
Very depressing WAGs! Please don't make me live through 2008 and 2009 all over again! What are you aiming for - third time's a charm?

Audrey
 
Global warming will be solved
Markets will recover + 10% across the world
Whales will be saved
Japanese will acquire a taste for whalerumi
Miss America contest will be banned, as will all reality shows
Income taxes will be abolished
Everyone with a mortgage will have it paid off by the government
Wars will end, people will all drink coke and gather in groups to sing
Everyone will be able to FIRE if they want to and work at meaningful occupations for the rest of their lives if they do not want to FIRE ...
Of course, unemployment will go to zero
Sarah Palin will be elected president, but will decline to work soup kitchens in Harlem

... April fools .... huh? oh January 1st? not ... never mind

signed
a person with too much time on his hands :blush:
 
Ah, just wistful thinking on Harley's part. In an earlier post, he said to have some cash to deploy, but missed the market low earlier this year. Sorry, Harley, but you have to run after the train if you want to get onboard.
 
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