Buy Citicorp ???

[Steve O]

I bought a little, wondering if it's cheap under $5 ?

 

[ERD50]

The people buying it think it is cheap at under $5. The people selling it to them must think it isn't if they are willing to part with it.

Who will be right? Come back in one year for the answer.


-ERD50

 

[jimnjana]

I think it is an interesting play right now. Buy before earnings and you could enjoy a nice short term gain, if they surprise on the upside. I'm betting that they will blow the estimates away... Problem is Gov't is gonna start selling shares in May all 27% of outstanding shares before the end of 2010 will be sold...so that will definitely pressure the stock price. IMO the time to buy may be now, then you can sell on the earnings news, or just hold for an investment... I think the gov't position is already priced in to a point, but company could announce share buyback etc to buoy the price a bit. Time will tell.

 

[clifp]

I think it is an interesting play right now. Buy before earnings and you could enjoy a nice short term gain, if they surprise on the upside. I'm betting that they will blow the estimates away... Problem is Gov't is gonna start selling shares in May all 27% of outstanding shares before the end of 2010 will be sold...so that will definitely pressure the stock price. IMO the time to buy may be now, then you can sell on the earnings news, or just hold for an investment... I think the gov't position is already priced in to a point, but company could announce share buyback etc to buoy the price a bit. Time will tell.

Is Citi allowed to do share buyback while the government is still a major shareholder? I know they paid back the TARP fund but I thought they still had restrictions. Anybody know how much government supervision they are under.

I guess the good news about Citi is since they are clearly too big to fail the downside risk at $5 is pretty small. FWIW, M* has Citi's fair value at $5.50.
For me Citi falls into this is way too hard category of investing.

 

[Maurice]

I like it, I bought a bunch a year ago (along with BAC). Later I read that Soros and Paulson were making large bets on it.

Of course, that doesn't mean we're right, but its always nice to see guys with their track record confirm your thinking.

 

[heyduke]

I am with Maurice... I bought a bunch aver a year ago along with BAC, SBIB, and GE for my bank plays... and have been adding along the way... sooner or later some of these will increase their dividends and the price will move up... I also agree that the gov'ts shares are most likely priced in...

 

[Maurice]

Heyduke, I bought GE also.

Those three (C, BAC, GE) were the first single stock purchases I made in over 10 years. I just couldn't resist.

 

[Hamlet]

I just can't get excited about buying such a poorly run bank. They've spent the last 15-25 years working hard at destroying shareholder value. Why get involved with that?

 

[jimnjana]

I just can't get excited about buying such a poorly run bank. They've spent the last 15-25 years working hard at destroying shareholder value. Why get involved with that?

past performance may not be a good indicator of the future performance... Citi today is not the same company it was six months ago... I'm not a big fan of big banks, but again, the downside risk is small, the upside potential is enough to get my attention.

 

[Steve O]

I figure 1000 shares at $4.15 should work out OK...

Pure speculation.

I wish I would have bought Ford when it was $3.00 or so...

 

[jimnjana]

Citi broke through $5 today. Much fear about Gov't unloading position has been replaced with anticipation of Gov't unloading its position. If Citi surprises on upside, will hit $6 pretty quickly.

 

[Steve O]

I sold it a few days ago at 4.65

Bought it back today at $4.75

 

[Hamlet]

The downside risk is the same for every stock purchase. You can potentially lose all of your money.

Perhaps there is some upside, but with the massive dilution of all of the equity injections from the US government and various sovereign wealth funds, I think there are so many shares out there that even if the business does well, the upside of the stock may be minimal.

past performance may not be a good indicator of the future performance... Citi today is not the same company it was six months ago... I'm not a big fan of big banks, but again, the downside risk is small, the upside potential is enough to get my attention.

 

[heyduke]

I have owned C from the twos and have traded it vigorously for my beer money ... Hamlet the stock market isn't for everybody and even though I play with about 40 stocks I watch them all very closely...

 

[ESRwannabe]

I have been tempted to buy stock in a few banks but have not. I'm already heavily weighted to financials due to tilting to value via indexes.

 

[neatokimmo]

I have owned C from the twos and have traded it vigorously for my beer money ... Hamlet the stock market isn't for everybody and even though I play with about 40 stocks I watch them all very closely...

I am also "trading it vigorously". Daily goal is a penny gain. Last week I managed to pick 26 cents off it.

Since I work for Citi (don't hate me, I'm not important enough to affect anything) I've been adding it to my 401K. Luckily I sold every match when it came into the account when it was in the 40s. My avg now is in the high 3's.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Only in an index fund.

 

[sheehs1]

I bought it last fall at $3.77. Bought more at $4.00. Also bought BAC and LVS. All speculative plays. Thought I would hold the financials even if it took several years....but now am not so sure. As someone else said Paulson is heavily invested. LVS has done well....although it is volatile.

 

[jimnjana]

Citi broke through $5 today. Much fear about Gov't unloading position has been replaced with anticipation of Gov't unloading its position. If Citi surprises on upside, will hit $6 pretty quickly.

Well, it did report good numbers, but too many shares and too many people taking nice short term profits. I sold all mine for a nice gain, will look at it again later in the summer.

 

[kcowan]

Although this is long, I would listen to it all before investing in C:
YouTube - Meredith Whitney Doesn't See `Earnings Power' at Banks

 

[MWaterman]

She's probably right. There's just not enough lending going on to really see some good profits anytime soon. If you're willing to wait though I bet you could see a good swing in price down the road.