Your Crystal Ball - Ten Years From Now?

[Midpack]

What did you come up with?

I would really like to think this recession will change us, just as the Great Depression did that generation, though I expect less dramatically. While there are people still striving to live beyond their means, I'd like to think many in the mainstream will be more frugal. This means the last/current recession was a "reset," as some economists have suggested - and our years of obvious excess are coming/have come to an end.

That being said, in broad terms I think cost of living will increase and therefore standard of living will decline for the USA. I think investment returns over at least the next several decades will be below historical expectations but still net positive. Our issues with health care, social security, medicare, debt/deficits, energy will all be addressed but not without more sacrifice than anyone wants to accept - and not because of good political leadership or an informed electorate, but only out of necessity when there's no alternative to acting.

We'll be fine, but it won't be the party the USA had in the last half of the last century IMO.

 

[scrabbler1]

I predict that there will be a big event, a shock to the system, like what happened to New York City in the 1970s. That is, the banks simply shut their windows and refused to lend the city any more money until it reformed its awful fiscal practices.

If foreigners were to to stop lending to us (i.e. buying US bonds) and the UST were to then have trouble meeting its current obligations such as SS payments or interest on the national debt, that would be big news and act as a big wake-up call. [Think back to the early 1980s when SS nearly went broke, resulting in the Greenspan Commission and a big hike in the FICA tax and a delay in the COLA in 1984 (and a gradual hike in the retirement age).]

Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s? Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??

 

[travelover]

....................Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s?

No

Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??

Yes


Unless their corporate masters decide otherwise.

 

[Midpack]

Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s? Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??

May well be, but why do you let the electorate off the hook? I think our political leaders reflect all of us much more than we care to admit...

 

[MichaelB]

We have short memories.

I graduated from college in the oil recession of ’75. The future was bleak and everybody said the Middle East was soon going to have all the money in the world. There was no solution.

Just a decade later, the Japanese were taking over the world. Their banks were unstoppable, their business culture was superior and they were going to put every American out of work.

The world has a bright future and so does the US. Our population is growing, we have lots of natural resources, lots of space, and the best Universities in the world. Lots more people want to come here than want to leave. Our problems look insurmountable – but they also did in 1975. We have a culture that fosters innovation and creativity and will find a way forward.

Other countries in the world – developed and emerging - are going to have a much tougher time because they don’t have the advantages we have.

Beyond that, I am quite confident that my children and their children will have every opportunity to prosper. They will need to make the right choices and work hard, but the opportunities are and will continue to be there.

 

[Midpack]

I hope you're right...

 

[Texas Proud]

I would really like to think this recession will change us, just as the Great Depression did that generation, though I expect less dramatically. While there are people still striving to live beyond their means, I'd like to think many in the mainstream will be more frugal. This means the last/current recession was a "reset," as some economists have suggested - and our years of obvious excess are coming/have come to an end.

That being said, in broad terms I think cost of living will increase and therefore standard of living will decline for the USA. I think investment returns over at least the next several decades will be below historical expectations but still net positive. Our issues with health care, social security, medicare, debt/deficits, energy will all be addressed but not without more sacrifice than anyone wants to accept - and not because of good political leadership or an informed electorate, but only out of necessity when there's no alternative to acting.

We'll be fine, but it won't be the party the USA had in the last half of the last century IMO.

I don't think so.... during the Great Depression, it was felt by almost everybody... even if you still had a job... and it lasted a LONG time... and many people were starving etc. etc...

This one is mostly 'paper' in nature... sure, lots of people are unemployed, but not anywhere near as many as back then... people can still find jobs (not back then), people are not starving as they get unemployment and food stamps....

So, for most people, this is just a blip in the economy... when things turn around they will go back to what they were doing... maybe not buying the mini mansions, but still living large...

 

[scrabbler1]

May well be, but why do you let the electorate off the hook? I think our political leaders reflect all of us much more than we care to admit...

Too many of our political leaders reflect the extreme positions, not the more reasonable and moderate positioins of the electorate. We will see this more and more in the next two years when the state legislatures do their decennial routine of "selecting the voters" in the next round of redistricting. If we have 1.4 million people living in one area within a state with a good mix of liberals, conservatives, and moderates, the politicians will draw two U.S. House districts which put as many of the liberals together into one as possible, and as many of the conservatives together as possible in the other to elect the most extreme congressmen as possible into two "safe" districts and there isn't a whole lot anyone can do about it. Even the SCOTUS has allowed this practice.

 

[Midpack]

Too many of our political leaders reflect the extreme positions, not the more reasonable and moderate positioins of the electorate.

There have been some extreme characters on both sides or even some moderates with a few extreme positions (who are mislabeled extreme based on same) but most of our leaders are left or right of center.

Not all, but most of the electorate is clueless and apathetic, you need only ask the 'man in the street.' Their opinions are mostly borrowed from family, friends and their favorite media talking heads. They confine their discussions to like minded sources if at all (some folks never get news from other sources than their favorite). They know much more about our pop culture than ideology. I'm no genious but I've had lots of conversations with folks who emphatically state a position, usually based on something they heard elsewhere, and once you engage them in detailed discussion their 'argument' breaks down completely.

It's easy and convenient to blame politicians. We get what we deserve...

 

[chinaco]

We will be in out 10th year of FIRE. Or at time would it be FIR?? Since it would no longer be early.

 

[obgyn65]

Another terrorist attack on US mainland

Major disruption in weather patterns - warmers winters, bigger hurricanes

Iran nuclear armed

$ depreciates by 50% against Euro and Yen

Bird flu virus mutates, hundreds of thousands die. Virus is contained.

UK joins the Euro. Turkey still out of EU, but Russia wants to join.

Taiwan on the verge of war with mainland China, Japan ready to intervene. Nuclear armed N Korea ready to retaliate.

A US tea party candidate becomes President, promises to nuke any nation supporting any new terrorist attack on US

Polar ice 50% disappeared

US violence at all time high, but too late for gun control

France and Germany, the two leading European powers, establish a common parliament and presidency

All travels to Mexico now banned because of gang related violence.

 

[73ss454]

What did you come up with?

In 10 years Dex will be back in the market.

 

[Purron]

We will be in out 10th year of FIRE. Or at time would it be FIR?? Since it would no longer be early.

FIR? Kinda like FUR

 

[dex]

Another terrorist attack on US mainland

Major disruption in weather patterns - warmers winters, bigger hurricanes

Iran nuclear armed

$ depreciates by 50% against Euro and Yen

Bird flu virus mutates, hundreds of thousands die. Virus is contained.

UK joins the Euro. Turkey still out of EU, but Russia wants to join.

Taiwan on the verge of war with mainland China, Japan ready to intervene. Nuclear armed N Korea ready to retaliate.

A US tea party candidate becomes President, promises to nuke any nation supporting any new terrorist attack on US

Polar ice 50% disappeared

US violence at all time high, but too late for gun control

France and Germany, the two leading European powers, establish a common parliament and presidency

All travels to Mexico now banned because of gang related violence.

Slowly, back away from the computer, grab an alcoholic beverage and step outside the house for a walk in the sunshine.

 

[Purron]

Slowly, back away from the computer, grab an alcoholic beverage and step outside the house for a walk in the sunshine.

Yup. Time to chill big time.

Perhaps this will help. Always helps me get out of that dark place I sometimes find myself in.

 

[TargaDave]

The greenback will no longer be the world's reserve currency

 

[Eagle43]

I just finished a book called "The Rational Optimist." The thesis is that things get better and better, despite all the doom and gloom from so-called experts.
He gives lots of rationale. Here's the author's (Matt Ridley) link.

Hope springs in Wells | The Rational Optimist

and you can listen to him, if you wish:

TED Blog | When ideas have sex: Matt Ridley on TED.com

 

[GregLee]

The thesis is that things get better and better, despite all the doom and gloom from so-called experts.http://blog.ted.com/2010/07/14/when_ideas_have/

I believe this, but I don't think I want others to. We are going to need to concentrate on some big upcoming problems, and pessimism will help keep us focused. I don't see how optimism can help but lead to complacency.

 

[dex]

I just finished a book called "The Rational Optimist." The thesis is that things get better and better, despite all the doom and gloom from so-called experts.
He gives lots of rationale. Here's the author's (Matt Ridley) link.

This is all true for the general population and don't focus on an individual person's life span.

A single person is not the general population.
The above is true if you can live through.
WW1, WW2, etc
Not one of the 12million killed in Nazi Concentration camps
Black in USA born in 1920 and earlier
Not one of th 60M? starved/killed in the Cultural Revolution
An English person in England as the British Empire declined
Were not a pensioner in the USSR when in collapsed
Not one of the apx 2 billion in the world now who subsist on about $1-2 dollars a day.

If you never die and don't need to eat then you can survive anything and when you are at the bottom things can only look up. If a person identifies themselves with the 'haves' rather than the 'have nots' then the the 'thesis' can work.

I find such pronouncements (found in the links) offensive because they ignore the pain and suffering of the individual - past, present and future. If a the pessimist can be faulted for focusing on the 'bad' at least their view encompasses, and acknowledges the situation of the oppressed.

 

[GregLee]

... because they ignore the pain and suffering of the individual - past, present and future.

That is hardly fair to the optimists' thesis, which is that things are getting better, not that they are wonderful. Individuals have not started suffering just recently.

 

[HFWR]

This is all true for the general population and don't focus on an individual person's life span.

A single person is not the general population.
The above is true if you can live through.
WW1, WW2, etc
Not one of the 12million killed in Nazi Concentration camps
Black in USA born in 1920 and earlier
Not one of th 60M? starved/killed in the Cultural Revolution
An English person in England as the British Empire declined
Were not a pensioner in the USSR when in collapsed
Not one of the apx 2 billion in the world now who subsist on about $1-2 dollars a day.

If you never die and don't need to eat then you can survive anything and when you are at the bottom things can only look up. If a person identifies themselves with the 'haves' rather than the 'have nots' then the the 'thesis' can work.

I find such pronouncements (found in the links) offensive because they ignore the pain and suffering of the individual - past, present and future. If a the pessimist can be faulted for focusing on the 'bad' at least their view encompasses, and acknowledges the situation of the oppressed.

This is why I find the rah-rah of "I got mine through hard work" and the USA penchant for believing we're somehow superior, ordained by gawd, and immune from these sorts of things to be both callous and delusional. Manifest destiny, my eye.

That's not to say that "democracy" and "free-market capitalism" aren't the "best" systems, just that they are not the historical norm, and take work to build and maintain. They don't exist and/or work "just because"...

 

[kumquat]

The world will have ended ~8 years ago, Dec. 12, 2012.

 

[Bikerdude]

Another terrorist attack on US mainland

Major disruption in weather patterns - warmers winters, bigger hurricanes

Iran nuclear armed

$ depreciates by 50% against Euro and Yen

Bird flu virus mutates, hundreds of thousands die. Virus is contained.

UK joins the Euro. Turkey still out of EU, but Russia wants to join.

Taiwan on the verge of war with mainland China, Japan ready to intervene. Nuclear armed N Korea ready to retaliate.

A US tea party candidate becomes President, promises to nuke any nation supporting any new terrorist attack on US

Polar ice 50% disappeared

US violence at all time high, but too late for gun control

France and Germany, the two leading European powers, establish a common parliament and presidency

All travels to Mexico now banned because of gang related violence.

Sounds like we are on track for another normal 10 year cycle.

 

[Purron]

Another terrorist attack on US mainland

Major disruption in weather patterns - warmers winters, bigger hurricanes

Iran nuclear armed

$ depreciates by 50% against Euro and Yen

Bird flu virus mutates, hundreds of thousands die. Virus is contained.

UK joins the Euro. Turkey still out of EU, but Russia wants to join.

Taiwan on the verge of war with mainland China, Japan ready to intervene. Nuclear armed N Korea ready to retaliate.

A US tea party candidate becomes President, promises to nuke any nation supporting any new terrorist attack on US

Polar ice 50% disappeared

US violence at all time high, but too late for gun control

France and Germany, the two leading European powers, establish a common parliament and presidency

All travels to Mexico now banned because of gang related violence.

All this plus...