There is NO history for retirement planning

[brewer12345]

Hey, investing is risky and retiring on the basis of your portfolio is risky. If you want safety, get a feddle gubmint type job and stay there for 30+ years. Its frigging paradise, I can assure you.

Otherwise, I think this is a case of "nut up or shut up."

 

[Gone4Good]

Hey, investing is risky and retiring on the basis of your portfolio is risky. If you want safety, get a feddle gubmint type job and stay there for 30+ years. Its frigging paradise, I can assure you.

But, but, but, government is going to have to cut back and last month actually had a net reduction in payroll. Can we really look at the past 200 years of government employment statistics to forecast a 40 year retirement? After all, it's only 5 non-overlapping periods. We really have no information to make a decision.

Governments come and governments go over such a long time frame. Won't government employees be specifically targeted during the next revolution? Maybe I'm better off staying at home with my nest egg. If only I had some data to help me decide.

 

[Dawg52]

Maybe a Valium would help?

Meds baby. Got me through the last crash.

 

[brewer12345]

But, but, but, government is going to have to cut back and last month actually had a net reduction in payroll. Can we really look at the past 200 years of government employment statistics to forecast a 40 year retirement? After all, it's only 5 non-overlapping periods. We really have no information to make a decision.

Governments come and governments go over such a long time frame. Won't government employees be specifically targeted during the next revolution? Maybe I'm better off staying at home with my nest egg. If only I had some data to help me decide.

Then I will have to get me some more MREs, a shotgun, lots of ammo, and a plot of land, and some seeds, and a horse, and...

 

[Gone4Good]

Then I will have to get me some more MREs, a shotgun, lots of ammo, and a plot of land, and some seeds, and a horse, and...

Good idea. Do you know where I can get 1,000 years worth of data on the success rate of people who have no farming skills successfully transitioning to subsistence farming? Thanks in advance.

 

[brewer12345]

Good idea. Do you know where I can get 1,000 years worth of data on the success rate of people who have no farming skills successfully transitioning to subsistence farming? Thanks in advance.

Sure:

 

[rescueme]

You really should take a step back and listen to yourself. You sound like Chicken Little, notwithstanding your disclaimer that you are merely pointing out uncertainty, not doom.

The simple fact is that all models are wrong; some models are useful. To me, and I suspect many others, FIRECALC is useful. Is it infallible? No. Is it the only thing upon which we do or should rely? No. It is a tool, one among many, nothing more and nothing less.

You have pointed out what you believe to be a flaw in FIRECALC. But Nords' question remains -- what are you going to do about it? At some point, you either need to take that step off the ledge, or not. If you want 100% certainty about the road ahead, you will never get it.

So there it is -- either retire or don't, it makes no difference to me. But for God's sake please stop whining.

Well said ...

 

[rmark]

If you feel the 75 or so years of US history used in most withdrawal studies is insufficent, check out the book 'Triumph of the Optimists' by Dimson , Marsh, and Staunton, for information on 15 countries over the years 1900-2000. This gives you 1500 years of data with a wider range of country outcomes.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I take comfort in certain trends:
* World population will continue to increase (until some catastrophe happens that I certainly will not survive). This ensures a growing demand for resources.
* World resources are limited and diminishing.
The two of these combined ensure that intelligent investing will pay off.

 

[rescueme]

I take comfort in certain trends:
* World population will continue to increase (until some catastrophe happens that I certainly will not survive). This ensures a growing demand for resources.
* World resources are limited and diminishing.
The two of these combined ensure that intelligent investing will pay off.

That has been my response to my wife's family members who would rather save than invest in the future.

I simply respond with the toilet paper (e.g. TP) question. That is, how many people in the world do not have such a "resource", but upon knowing what it is, would desire it (e.g. market expansion based upon current world population).

The second question is how many people in the future (e.g. population explosion) would want such a product in their lives?

I refer to this situation as the "TP expanding market (and profit) solution"...

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Somehow I am reminded of a bumpersticker:

"If we can't grow it, we have to mine it."

 

[NW-Bound]

Can't we just steal it?

 

[shotgunner]

I got lost and or bored with this thread because ultimately FIRECalc can not provide a 100% reliable prediction. To me the OP suggests the tool can't provide certainty of outcome. I already knew that.

Here's what really matters. Two weeks ago this thursday a guy I know in town was driving is dump truck as an independent hauler. The next day he was at home working on the brakes of his truck. He didn't feel good and went to the hospital. They found he had brain cancer and gave him a week to live. He lasted 5 days. He was 49 (I am very good friends with his cousin).

What do you want to do with your life or how do you want to live before your last day? Worst case to me is the plan doesn't work and you go back to work. At least one would have had some time off or maybe even lived a dream for a little while.

Following a dream somtimes means taking chances.

I don't mean to lecture. All too often it seems to me the uncertainty of when we die or when we lose our health and how we live until that happens gets lost in the discussion and planning.

 

[obgyn65]

I agree with this. Many people (including myself) find it difficult to make the jump though and retire early.

Following a dream somtimes means taking chances.