Responding to all
GrayHare: This is an issue I wrestle with, long-term care and unexpected medical issues. One way I'm trying to hedge this is by eating better, exercising and being proactive to keep illness at bay as long as possible. It's not foolproof but each ounce of prevention is a pound of cure.
growing_older: I wonder what changed your mind when you were younger so that you never put together that meager savings you initially wanted to. I have had this desire to retire since I was a teenager but I have not put together the savings simply because of a lack of education. I did not know how much I needed or what was very realistic. Now I've been on my own for several years, out of college, have had several jobs, been married (thankfully divorced with no children), have had a pet, etc and so I know with a little more certainty what I want out of life and what kind of lifestyle I enjoy. It is quite similar to what I thought I wanted when I was 18, I'm just much more realistic about several aspects. I am trying to keep my options open and I realize that in 10 years my goals may be much different than they are now. I definitely agree with you: if I do the savings now and have the target (for something to look towards), even if my goals completely change at that point I will have cash in the bank and my future will look much, much better than if I just blew it all every Friday night at the Casino.
Midpack: Yep, I keep running numbers and variables through FIRECALC to see what would stand up. It's amazing how little it would "theoretically" take to achieve. It's the practical and unforeseen variables that always bite cha when you least expect it. What do they say, the devil is in the details? I always use 55 years (100 years old) even though genetically I have a life expectancy of 75-85. But who knows what they will come up with in the future to extend our life (as long as the quality comes with, otherwise forget it). I don't know about Social Security. I don't include it in the simulations just to play it safe. I figure if it's there at 67 (or later) then it will be a nice kicker. Just to be honest, though, the proposal scares me a little too. I would bet when I get to 45 (all things being equal) I would be likely to say, "Hey, I have all this money in the bank, instead of retiring, maybe I should work another year for some cushion." It's entirely feasible that I would do this each year after that for 5 or more years. I think instead of actually "retiring" I'm really looking for the freedom from gainful employment. I want the ability to work because I "want" to work not because I "have" to work. I also toy with the idea of retiring just to relocate and get a job somewhere else in a field I really enjoy (not sure what that would be yet). I guess I'm just wanting more options than dragging myself out of bed each morning because I am one paycheck away from insolvency (I'm not in that situation now but I have been too much of my life).
W2R: Work after retirement is an important variable, though I would very much like to hedge my bets and not have to work unless I wanted to. I think (at least to me) the point of FI is the freedom to pass up employment for whatever reason, and also the freedom to take employment for good reasons (like you really enjoy the job or like the people you're working with). It is true, I could work for 5 years in the woods and one day drive off the side of the road or run into a logging truck coming down the mountain and not be able to work anymore. This is why I want to have redundancy in my plans: 1. all expenses covered by US treasuries ($6k/yr) then working income on top ($6k/yr approx) with inflation hedge in stocks ($50k), etc. Work has always been factored into the retirement plan, but on my terms and not on a need for income to cover "this" year's expenses.
ERhoosier: Yes, the VA availability is a concern for me. My income would potentially be very low, but I do not have any SCD so I am at the bottom of the list for services. But, if I'm working in the woods in this area the VA hospital and/or community based clinics are virtually everywhere (every significant town/city anyway). I don't know about the rest of the country, but I'm not much of a traveler and what I've seen of the country not much compares to where I live now. Here the weather is very moderate, there are large expanses of public timber lands to camp on for free, all located within 40 miles or so from services. It's a shoestring budget but pretty realistic for what this area has to offer. But, again, availability at the VA is a concern, as always with anything that is government funded. But, once I retire (especially if I'm not working) I will virtually have no income (if it comes out of my Roth) and if my Bonds are at Treasury Direct I'm still way under the poverty line even for a single person, so it would take a pretty good hit against VA funding to cut me off. But, then again, being proactive with your health goes a long way, albeit not 100% perfect, though.
Finance Dave: A Pet? That rates right up there with having a wife and children. No thanks. Been there. Got the T-Shirt. Not really very interested in repeating that modern day tragedy. LTC insurance is a concern that I am still wrestling with. Sibling and parents all make WAY more than I do and both have opportunity to prepare financially for the future. So, no. My parents both have pensions, social security and a $75k yr business on top of it that they run in retirement. My only sibling works for a fortune 500 company and makes more than all of us combined. I'm the strange one in the family that actually wants to live at poverty levels. I do very much like your idea of saving with a goal in sight, then revisiting the goal 2 years out to readjust. I actually readjust every year. This is how the house option came about, it was not part of the plan last year.
Nun: I will never say never, but I have (at this time and into the foreseeable future) no interest in getting remarried. If I want to gamble I'll go to the casino or buy a lottery ticket (I think both of those have better odds than marriage does). As one of our clients always says, "My picker is broken." I am a 1 time loser in the marriage game and going in it looked like the absolute surest best in the world. Boy was I wrong. Luckily I had nothing but a business (no assets) and the business went to her in the divorce. But, she also got the debts. So I was able to walk away free and clear with the clothes on my back and have been able to start over. I'm starting to get up there and have no interest in children of my own, even less interest in being a stepparent (been there, done that), and socially I'm much more comfortable being alone.
Live and Learn: I'm glad to see someone agrees with the ER concept. 50 is only 5 years off of my 45, but as I said above, it is possible that I would continue to work after 45 if I wanted to (in the business I have now). In reality, it is alot of good money to leave on the table and walk away. Whether I retire at 45 or 55 or somewhere in between, my goal really is to have the assets and income streams in place by 45 so that working is a choice and not a requirement.
Buckeye: Yes, in order for the VA to cover my medical care it has to be done at a VA hospital or clinic. I have no service connected disabilities so I'm at the bottom of the list (as I understand it), but so far so good. I really think it is a wash anyway, when you look at the state of health care in the country now, the extremely high premiums for self-employed people and all the limits, etc and out of pocket costs when you HAVE insurance. I go to the VA and I exercise a great deal of backbone with them. I go in and argue against pills at every turn. I was diagnosed with diabetes two years ago. They wanted to put me on pills. I said no way, I'll lose weight. I went from an AC1 of 12 to 5.8 just by cutting out bad food (without exercise). No need for medications. I went back in for a checkup and they said my blood pressure was high and wanted to put me on pills. Again, I said no way. My blood pressure goes up when I go to the doctor. They sent me home and told me to monitor for a week and bring back the results. I did and got a clean bill of health, the nurse finally admitted, "Ya, there are a lot of people who have spikes in their blood pressure when they come in to see us." Now if I had just walked the line with them, I would right now be on two medications minimum! That is the ridiculousness of western medical care. Maybe medications are very necessary for certain people in certain situations, but for me I will hold out as long as possible and will choose prevention over prescription every time. As for serious injury, it is difficult to say. There is just as good a chance, if I stayed attached to a job for the rest of my life that if I unexpectedly become ill that the insurance company (that I was paying outrageous premiums for) would not cover me or would have limits or some other loophole to get out of it. I watch my mother struggle with her health insurance and it really doesn't seem worth it. I go into the VA and they never mention money to me at all. Yes, proximity to VA facilities is part of my checklist when looking at areas to move to. In my state pretty much anywhere I would want to live has a VA hospital or community clinic. It is a limiting factor but one that I keep in mind and I think is well worth the limitation for free healthcare (at least free now).
Modhatter: I lived for two years in the woods, no roads, pretty isolated for the most part, in a small cabin. I loved it. Also lived another year in an RV in and out of the woods. Did firewatch as a teenager for local logging companies in the summer time. There are job postings every year in the paper and on the state employment site looking for watchmen. There is a lot of logging going on here. Maybe in 10 years there will not be a market like there is now. Who knows. But there is also cmap hosting, house sitting, and also plan B with a small house with no vehicle. There are options depending on variables in the future. Entertainment. Sat tv is very popular here, especially for use in the woods. But, I have about 300 movies on my computer, lots of tv shows and a ton of ebooks + I would be going into town each week whether I was working on a logging site or not, so I can always make use of the local library that has a virtually limitless supply of Dvd's, books, CDs, etc to take with me into the woods for entertainment. Companionship: no thanks. I function much, much better without it. No pets either, simply because they ARE another mouth to feed and they do not do well with my lifestyle. Electricity is primary needed to run my laptop (no internet access required). This can easily be accomplished with a small generator (although I have played a little bit with alternative energy, such as wind and solar). Fridge and cooking would be by propane and usually the logging company provides this as a benefit (at least they used to). For $1000 a month above my $6000 a year I can buy my own propane. I have looked at $400k also and waiting another 5 years is not a killer if I like what I'm doing for work. The job I'm working right now is very good compared to others, so it is very possible. I think the $500 is pretty realistic. I've been living on that or less for most of my life. Most think my lifestyle is absolutely crazy or a waste of life, but mostly I spend my time on my computer - though I consider myself very, very busy. I love to read (or have my computer read to me, I'm spoiled). I listen to podcasts, watch movies, tv shows (on the computer), read alot of nonfiction (science, history, etc) work through about 30 math problems a day (I read that working your brain throughout your life can prolong dementia in old age, and i love working math problems). One thing that I really enjoy doing is putting on my mp4 player with an audio book and going for long walks (which would work both as a watchmen and if i had a house where I walked everywhere). I think I'm pretty fortunate not to have a personal need for all the other stuff in life. Oh, thank you for the link to the docu. I watched it awhile back. Pretty good.
obgyn65: I don't think you're being harsh, but I also don't think inflation is all it's cracked up to be. There are things one can do to stave off or reduce inflation besides make more money. Yes there comes a point if there is prolonged inflation that is real (not some arbitrary index) then definitely there would be an impact. But as inflation in one thing goes up, it also goes down in other areas. Technology is a great example. 10 years ago I would need a sat system, television just to get tv in the woods with a very large requirement of electricity to run it all (this used to be my set up and I ran it off of a deep cycle battery and inverter). Now all I need is a $200 netbook that holds 500+ movies and tv shows, a virtual endless supply of ebooks, audio podcasts, research materials and there is free wifi in nearly every town over a population of 1000. In one part of my state there is a town of less than 100 people out in the middle of the woods. It is about 30 miles away from any other place. Yet, even they have a public library that offers free wifi. So cost went from several hundreds of dollars and a subscription to sat tv down to an outlay of $200 for a computer that can last several years for all entertainment. This can offset increases in other areas like food or gas. These two, of course, are big, big concerns. I remove gas altogether if I buy a house by choosing to walk or ride a bike everywhere or taking public transport. I did this the last time gas went up to $4 a gallon. Instead of driving the half hour to work, I would get up two hours early and would take the bus. My gas bill went from $400 a month down to $45/mnth and the ride there and back was fine as I had my podcasts to listen to. Yes, inflation is a bear but it can be managed to a certain degree without increasing your income or remaining tied to employment.
All in all, thanks to everyone who responded here. You have brought up some really good points for me to consider. I love forums. ;-)
why1942
Scares me but FIRECALC seems to suggest it would work. I entered 150K LT Treasuries, 50K S&P, 6K/yr income, 6K/yr expenses and a 20K house all beginning in 2020 and running for 50 years (age 95). Default inflation and everything else. Presumably you'd have Soc Sec, I didn't include that...
