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-   -   Life expectancy? (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/life-expectancy-67077.html)

David1961 06-14-2013 05:11 PM

Life expectancy?
 
When planning your retirement and/or withdrawal rates after retirement, what age do you expect to live to? It's a balance between running out of money versus running out of life. Seems like the number you choose can have a big impact on your safe withdrawal rate. I am 51 and personally use age 100. If I had a chronic health issue, I'd use a lower number. Curious what number others use.

Surprisingly

obgyn65 06-14-2013 05:14 PM

95.

Live And Learn 06-14-2013 05:20 PM

I use 90. I have a 90% chance to 90 in FIDO's RIP and 100% to 90 in FIRECalc. I am a little uneasy about it however. I figure at 90 I can figure out as way to get by on social security alone. I also try and remind myself that while there may be a 10% risk of being broke there is a 90% chance that I wont be broke and there is more than a 50% chance that I will have as sizeable donation to charity when I die. I have to convince myself of this as, many of you know, I am prone to excess worry and likely to succumb to OMY syndrome.

travelover 06-14-2013 05:23 PM

I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

bld999 06-14-2013 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover (Post 1329544)
I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

Now that's taking charge...make those variables dance to your tune!

Snowcat 06-14-2013 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover (Post 1329544)
I used FireCalc and just cranked down the life expectancy until I hit 100% chance of success.

So, what age do you get 100%?

We are using 100 DH (that is 97 for me). We get 100%. I would be amazed if either of us made it to that age. If I recall some study results, I think there is only a 10% of one of us making it.

travelover 06-14-2013 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowcat (Post 1329546)
So, what age do you get 100%? ...........

Well I did it when I was 54. I think the 100% age was around 61. :laugh:

Animorph 06-14-2013 07:58 PM

I went for 92. We'll adjust withdrawals as needed to maintain a decent sized portfolio even then.

HighRoller 06-14-2013 08:21 PM

Before I retired earlier last year, I wanted to see 100% on FireCal and my own spreadsheets out to age 100. Realistically I'd be surprised to make it to 90.

Katsmeow 06-14-2013 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowcat (Post 1329546)
So, what age do you get 100%?

We are using 100 DH (that is 97 for me). We get 100%. I would be amazed if either of us made it to that age. If I recall some study results, I think there is only a 10% of one of us making it.

Vanguard's calculator says that a couple both age 65 have a 5% chance of one making it to 100.

In our case - DH is 6 1/2 years older than me. I ran the calculator a couple of ways. I've tied it mostly to 30 years based on his age, however, I have run it 35 years based on mine. What I found was that there wasn't much difference in spending for 35 years versus 30. Further, if I calculated the likely result which is that I would be a widow for some of that a 30 year plan where both DH and I were here also gave enough money for a 35 year plan where I was a widow for some part of it.

Another thing is that I want a lot of certainty and good percentages for 30 years. I might run 40 years but I don't require as high a percentage for that length of time as it is very unlikely.

Jgot 06-14-2013 08:29 PM

95

LakeTravis 06-14-2013 08:54 PM

85.

Spanky 06-14-2013 09:43 PM

I use 90 just for planning purpose.

Independent 06-14-2013 10:14 PM

We've got an
X% chance of our money lasting till 90
Y% chance of our money lasting till 95
Z% chance of our money lasting till 100

I look at all of these.

Alan 06-15-2013 12:54 AM

92, or is it 93?, or 94?, heck, can't remember

FIREd 06-15-2013 01:10 AM

Planning-wise, I use 100 for both DW and me, even though none of our grandparents lived beyond the age of 90.

traineeinvestor 06-15-2013 04:49 AM

I used 100 for DW (which implies 107 for me - nearly twice the age my maternal grandfather was when he dies of a heart attack). Since DW will be 41 when I shuffle run out of the office for the last time at the end of September* :dance: , I don't see much difference between 59 years and forever when it comes to planning how much we need.


* okay, I'm doing a very part time thing for a while after but I will be retired then

Thormole 06-15-2013 06:26 AM

Life expectancy
 
I use 95 for wife and me. Always the optimist!!

bUU 06-15-2013 07:27 AM

I'm using 86. I think there are a number of things that will keep my longevity down, not the least of which is that my spouse is ten years older, and I think that's going to have its impact.

gerntz 06-15-2013 07:31 AM

I take those here that have good health but use less than 100 are intent on making sure they die penniless. Guess that's fine if you need every bit of income a lesser LE provides. But me, I'd dial back a bit. This is self-serving as we can afford 100, probably 150, with our lifestyle, but even if not I think I'd take security.


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