FIRE after 18,708 days alive! Please confirm.

[2015 FIRE]

One day at a time…

Glad to have found a site of like-minded people!
I plan to FIRE next year in May at the age of 51.
Have read “Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?”
I’m single with no Ex or children.
Parents seem to be financially self-sufficient. Need to have a talk with them about long term care, but think they're OK.
Live in low/moderate COL Midwest town.
I’ve tracked my spending for last 7 years.
I’ve run just about every free retirement calculator out there.
Have my own spreadsheet to analyze a simple linear model.
Use a wealth management team for my investments right now. They confirm I’m good to go. Will stop using them when I FIRE and have more time to manage my portfolio. Have managed it before and comfortable doing it.
Target allocation will be 47% equities, 38% bonds, 9% alternatives and 6% in cash (2 years expenses plus funds to do some home upgrades/repairs I know need to be done).
Have also modeled taxes based on portfolio allocation and deferred income. Plan to have my tax guy do a dummy return to confirm.

Numbers are a little complicated. This is a simplified version of what they should be at RE date:
Mortgage paid off (house value about $280k), no debt
Assuming I live to 90 (Wharton longevity calculator has me at 85 with a 77-94 range)
Deferred Income Account: $145k ($29/yr, starts 2016 runs 5 years)
IRA/401k: $515k (Plan to SEPP in 2021 after deferred income done, est. about $30k/yr)
After Tax Account: $1,710k
Total Investable Assets (includes deferred income & IRA/401k, but not house): $2,370k
No pension. Have modeled with SS=$0 as a buffer (should be about $1,700 per month if taken at 62, but will likely wait, need to tax model it).
OK to die broke (or with enough to pay for my funeral).

Total est. spend/yr including taxes (fed, state & property): $66k or about a 2.8% initial WR.
Assuming $4,800/yr for health insurance, need to research better.

FIRECalc & ******** = 100%
Fidelity RIP = On Track
T. Rowe Price Income Calculator = 92%

What do y’all think, can I RE next year in May with the assumptions above?
What else should I be considering?
Thanks!

 

[rodi]

Welcome!

Did you include taxes in your spending? Some calculators want you to use net spending (eg: quicken lifetime planner), others (eg: firecalc) want you to use gross spending.

But - your investable assets are higher than mine, your budget is lower than mine... and I pulled the plug this year.

 

[Totoro]

Looks good to go. Congratz!

Minor things: May want to consider firing your team right now. Also, why have 'alternatives'?

 

[2015 FIRE]

Good point on taxes. I always include them even when they ask for spend.

 

[2015 FIRE]

Looks good to go. Congratz!

Minor things: May want to consider firing your team right now. Also, why have 'alternatives'?

Alternatives like MLP's and REIT's were to generate dividend income.

 

[braumeister]

What do y’all think, can I RE next year in May with the assumptions above?
What else should I be considering?

No, you certainly can not retire next May. You can retire now. No waiting required.
Welcome!

 

[Rothman]

Agree with braumeister, you are good to go, enjoy the fruits of your labor


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[2B]

Alternatives like MLP's and REIT's were to generate dividend income.

For your original question I think you are good to go. Congratulations.

If you have the typical advisors for MLP and REITs you may have a fee problem. Privately placed MLPs and non-listed REITs are frequently high fee rip-offs and sometimes outright frauds. Hopefully, this isn't what you have. The key question is whether you can liquidate today. If you can't, that is a red flag telling you that you should get out ASAP.

 

[2015 FIRE]

No, you certainly can not retire next May. You can retire now. No waiting required.
Welcome!

Agree with braumeister, you are good to go, enjoy the fruits of your labor


Thanks guys, Megacorp has a bonus program where I qualify if I'm employed on the last day of the year. I run a sales team and work from home (low stress) when I'm not traveling (high stress). I only have 1 more trip scheduled before year end. I also have some equity vesting in early Jan. My boss and his boss have been good to me. They're a major reason I'm in this financial position. I plan to talk to my boss mid-Jan about leaving. I will likely stay (if they want me) until end of April to help them find my replacement. I started from scratch building my sales team. Many joined based on trusting what I told them. I'd like to make sure Megacorp puts a good guy in as my replacement.

 

[2015 FIRE]

For your original question I think you are good to go. Congratulations.

If you have the typical advisors for MLP and REITs you may have a fee problem. Privately placed MLPs and non-listed REITs are frequently high fee rip-offs and sometimes outright frauds. Hopefully, this isn't what you have. The key question is whether you can liquidate today. If you can't, that is a red flag telling you that you should get out ASAP.

Thanks, I'll look into right away.