Early Retirement & Financial Independence Community

Early Retirement & Financial Independence Community (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/)
-   Stock Picking and Market Strategy (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/)
-   -   S&P 500 Tops Previous Record High (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/s-and-p-500-tops-previous-record-high-82619.html)

dixonge 07-08-2016 12:40 PM

S&P 500 Tops Previous Record High
 
Briefly traded over previous record high closing price. We'll have to see if it maintains this level.

That is all...

NW-Bound 07-08-2016 01:02 PM

... and the rollover check into my wife's IRA is deposited, but still has not cleared.

For a long time, I have not wished for the market to crash as much as I do now.

NW-Bound 07-08-2016 03:01 PM

So, the market closed with the S&P up 1.53% at 2129.90, near its previous record of 2,130.82 on May 21, 2015.

As I am still sore that my wife's 401k rollover is still sitting in cash (it's 30% of our total investable assets), I console myself with the fact that I did think about the risk of being out of the market and poured all the other cash within reach into the market at the same time.

Much of my cash is really in I-bonds which I do not want to liquidate, so I could only deploy some loose cash on hand. Because that amounts to only about 1/5 of my wife's account, I put it into high-beta ETFs to increase the effect.

The result is that today while the S&P is up 1.53%, the entire stock portion of the portfolio (goosed or not) is up 2.03%. Not as nice as if my wife's 401k got invested, but better than missing out.

Market timing is really tough, I have to keep reminding myself.

jim584672 07-08-2016 04:16 PM

So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?

Marc 07-08-2016 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 (Post 1753971)
So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?

Are you asking for preferences? ;D

IF we break through the old high; it should lead to new highs; if we don't break out next week; look out below.

Alcoa reports after bell on Monday; lots of financials during the week. If earnings season goes better than expected, I am hoping for 2200 sometime this summer.

Of course, "hoping" is not a good investment strategy ;)

Marc

NW-Bound 07-08-2016 04:42 PM

I dunno, as I never knew. So, I hedge by writing covered calls, and/or selling covered puts.

Just last week, some covered calls looked like they would expire worthless, while my cash-covered puts would be exercised forcing me to buy. Suddenly, the calls now look like I will get more cash as my stocks get called, and the puts will be worthless. It's hard to tell as the market turns on a dime. Next week may go back to like last week if something unpredictable happens.

The thing is as long as I make some money better than CDs or stinkin' I-bonds, I should be grateful and not be greedy.

NW-Bound 07-08-2016 08:35 PM

So, I looked to see what my stash was on 5/21/2015, the last time the S&P was at this level.

After accounting for withdrawal, I found that I am still down -1.5% in this interval, while the S&P is up roughly 2% due to dividends. Wellesley is up 8.4%!

International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.

Notmuchlonger 07-08-2016 10:19 PM

Once you have enough you don't pay attention so much.

NW-Bound 07-08-2016 10:21 PM

How does one know he still has enough if he does not look?

What if you do not look, then find out that you have only 2/3 or 1/2 of what you think you do?

DrRoy 07-09-2016 03:59 AM

Quote:

So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?
Stay tuned to find out. Could be some other outcome like remaining in the trading range or poke higher briefly for a bull trap. If you have just held since the last high you are still up by the dividends. I am approaching RE early next year and will reduce my AA by 5% if the S&P approaches 2200.

marko 07-09-2016 04:44 AM

C'mon! It's been two steps forward, one step back since...what?, since forever?

It'll go down a bit and gain new highs. I sympathize with NW-Bound in hoping for a little market timing, but "over the long run" it should be higher than whatever price he gets next week.

Week to week will drive you crazy but as someone here once posted "from 20 feet away my chart looks like a straight line upwards"; from 2 feet, not so much.

Personally, my NW hit an all time high yesterday. :dance:

HadEnuff 07-09-2016 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1753872)
... and the rollover check into my wife's IRA is deposited, but still has not cleared.

For a long time, I have not wished for the market to crash as much as I do now.

I ran into the same thing with my wife's rollover. Her account has missed the recent run-up. However, I console myself thus: While our joint AA is a tad under what I would consider "ideal", should the market continue it's unabated course to ever higher ground, we will do quite well with the AA we have,

and should the market tank, we will be fine also. Maybe better in the long run with so much "dry powder" available. So, maybe, our AA is "ideal" for us, even if a tad low for most "experts".

IOW, maybe it's more about securing a floor, than maximizing the ceiling.

EastWest Gal 07-09-2016 05:27 AM

Even with a balanced asset allocation, my portfolio jumped up in one day almost as much as what DS will earn in a year with a starting salary IF he can find a full time job. He's put out many applications and is waiting. It still feels very strange to see that multimillion portfolio balance... I feel the pain of those just starting out in the world who are not in medicine, IT, or engineering.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

Fermion 07-09-2016 07:43 AM

I didn't go all in during the "it only happens twice a year" Brexit sale and am still sitting on some cash from our home sale. I am happy either way the market goes.

SpinDr 07-09-2016 08:07 AM

International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.[/QUOTE]

I'm with you on this point! I know the benefits of diversification but seeing how my international funds seem to pull down my equity performance, year after year, is painful. Feels like a very long time that having international equities have just hurt the portfolio. If I'd just kept it super simple with one S&P 500 fund I'd be way ahead :facepalm: I know someday the international diversification will be a benefit but when is my my annual question. That's my whine for the weekend.

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 09:23 AM

I like to lament, but same as you I know the reason for me to do it: diversification.

In addition to international equities, my big slug of I-bonds also hurts performance. It is the cash I intend to keep to tide me over for a few years if the market crashes. One cannot have his cake and eat it too.

I am not going to make drastic changes to my AA despite whining (somewhat jokingly ;) ). Revenge will be mine, one of these days.

CaliforniaMan 07-09-2016 09:28 AM

If we break out on the upside now it will head higher, unless it heads lower. On the other hand if it doesn't break out on the upside it will head lower, unless it heads higher. And you can take this to the bank!

But I was happy yesterday, a new personal all time high for me! On the other hand on Monday I will still be happy, my hammock will still swing on the deck outside, the beer will still be cold, the avocados ripe, the humming birds will be visiting my feeders and the stock market will move.

Another lovely day in retirement :)

MichaelB 07-09-2016 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan (Post 1754144)
If we break out on the upside now it will head higher, unless it heads lower. On the other hand if it doesn't break out on the upside it will head lower, unless it heads higher. And you can take this to the bank!

So, in summary, you're saying it'll probably go up, unless it goes down first, but it might go down first, unless it goes up? But whatever, life is good. :)

Dude, seriously, you should seriously consider a second career in diplomacy or politics. You're a natural. :)

edit to add - j/k :)

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 09:37 AM

All CaliforniaMan was trying to say was that he could see a head-and-shoulder pattern forming, but he was not yet sure if it is not a reverse head-and-shoulder.

Chuckanut 07-09-2016 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1754031)

International stocks hurt me to no end! For example, one of my EM funds is down -14.2% over the same period. It's amazing that I can almost break even over all.

So perhaps this is an opportunity to invest in something that will give you a healthier future return? Maybe you can be the next John Templeton.

CaliforniaMan 07-09-2016 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 1754148)
So, in summary, you're saying it'll probably go up, unless it goes down first, but it might go down first, unless it goes up? But whatever, life is good. :)

Dude, seriously, you should seriously consider a second career in diplomacy or politics. You're a natural. :)

edit to add - j/k :)

Yes, some friends do say that I have a knack for diplomacy, except for the others who say I have no diplomatic skills at all. :)

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 1754153)
So perhaps this is an opportunity to invest in something that will give you a healthier future return?

That's the thinking. I have been patiently waiting, but wonder how much longer I have to wait.

Quote:

Maybe you can be the next John Templeton.
I wish.

I wonder if Templeton ever lost money, and if he did, how long he had to hang on until he made money.

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EastWest Gal (Post 1754094)
Even with a balanced asset allocation, my portfolio jumped up in one day almost as much as what DS will earn in a year with a starting salary IF he can find a full time job. He's put out many applications and is waiting. It still feels very strange to see that multimillion portfolio balance... I feel the pain of those just starting out in the world who are not in medicine, IT, or engineering...

Speaking of the highest daily fluctuations, I observed a long time ago that my portfolio, and any index for that matter, never goes up in a day as much as it goes down. The worst daily down is about 2x the best daily up.

The most I have lost in a single day was $80K. That was one particular day during the Great Recession. From peak to trough, it was about 10x that. I have more now, but am also better diversified, so have not exceeded these numbers since then.

One is supposed to look at the variations as a percentage and not absolute dollar amounts, but even there, it is tough to see "losing" what I can live on for several months.

But that's the price to pay to stay in the game. Without investing in the market, I never would have that money. I have not added up all of what we saved over the years, but even though we maxed out our 401k over our career the total contribution was only a small portion of the current value.

I am grateful to have lived, worked, and saved during the great boom years of 1980-2000. The future is yet to unfold before our eyes.

W2R 07-09-2016 11:44 AM

S&P 500 Tops Previous Record High
 
Just saw this thread on the topic of yesterday's intra-day high. But what about closing values?

Let's see, a Google search tells me that the record S&P 500 at closing was 2130.82.

Yesterday at closing the S&P 500 was 2129.90 according to Yahoo.

CLOSE ENOUGH!!! :dance: I *LOVE* it! This is simply wonderful. I just hope that it continues. I just looked at my portfolio values, and honestly this makes my day.

The first sentence of the lead article on Yahoo Finance is, "Fears of a stock market crash are hitting new highs." I'm sorry, I'm just completely ruining their fun with all my Wheee-ing and happiness. I'll try really hard to improve. :rofl:

REWahoo 07-09-2016 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 1754195)
I'm sorry, I'm just completely ruining their fun with all my Wheee-ing and happiness.

Oh crap.

Wheee ALERT!!

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 12:01 PM

Heh, heh, heh...

The Oracle of New Orleans has finally spoken. Just what I have been waiting for. There's fairness in this world after all.

Next week, I will go shopping for stocks when my wife's check finally clears. Licking my chops in eager anticipation.

Buy, buy, buy... Heh heh heh...

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 12:24 PM

I cannot stop giggling with pleasure.

See my AA below as I post this, taken from Quicken, my friends. Look at that.

See the cash level, which includes the I-bonds as I stated. Even if I do not redeem the I-bonds, it's still a lot of cash to go shopping next week.

My prayers have been answered. My luck is changing with the Wheee proclamation. :bow:

http://www.early-retirement.org/atta...cc731dadf0.png

W2R 07-09-2016 12:35 PM

Wow! You are sure over-loaded with cash.

I think you should spend some, soon. Maybe a round-the-world cruise on a really high end luxury liner?

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 12:38 PM

No way.

If stocks get cheap (with your help, thank you), I buy stocks. Instead of a world cruise now, I can have two later. Delayed gratification is my middle name.

RobbieB 07-09-2016 02:39 PM

My statements arrived in the mail today and say I made 90 grand in June.

Woohoo! Think I'll order up some caviar - :)

Another Reader 07-09-2016 03:01 PM

If you order caviar when you are up 90 grand, do you order Alpo when you are down 90 grand?

RobbieB 07-09-2016 03:11 PM

I wouldn't feed Alpo to my dog.

NW-Bound 07-09-2016 03:51 PM

S&P on 5/31: 2097.

S&P on 6/30: 2099.

If your FA made you so much money for June, he's a h*** of a trader to beat the market so soundly. Or that he picked the right stocks for the month, and concentrated on them.


PS. One of my stocks went up 19.6% in the last month. The next one went up 9.88%, then the 3rd one 9.64%. Would I want to concentrate my portfolio on these? :)

MRG 07-09-2016 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB (Post 1754254)
I wouldn't feed Alpo to my dog.

My dog won't eat it.

That's really me for the sake of self preservation, if he ate Alpo we'd both be ill.

audreyh1 07-09-2016 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 1754195)
Just saw this thread on the topic of yesterday's intra-day high. But what about closing values?

Let's see, a Google search tells me that the record S&P 500 at closing was 2130.82.

Yesterday at closing the S&P 500 was 2129.90 according to Yahoo.

CLOSE ENOUGH!!! :dance: I *LOVE* it! This is simply wonderful. I just hope that it continues. I just looked at my portfolio values, and honestly this makes my day.

The first sentence of the lead article on Yahoo Finance is, "Fears of a stock market crash are hitting new highs." I'm sorry, I'm just completely ruining their fun with all my Wheee-ing and happiness. I'll try really hard to improve. :rofl:

Oh nooooooo!!!

At least I have some tax loss harvesting to do if we suffer a big drop (again).

RobbieB 07-09-2016 04:51 PM

My FA didn't do any trading that I know of, the bag just grew by itself. He did pick the stuff but that was last year.

Totoro 07-11-2016 05:24 AM

Really now, mr. Sachs? yahoo finance headline after the expected continuing record highs:
Yahoo!

Quote:

Goldman stuck with a neutral call on equities on both three- and 12-month outlooks, but added that if stocks rallied further, it would reduce risk in that segment.
If stuff becomes more expensive, risk drops?!

Quote:

It expected equities would remain stuck in a "fat and flat" range, offering little in the way of returns, but suffering from high volatility.
Things will be stable, except they won't be?!

Quote:

Within equities, Goldman said it preferred defensive, low-volatility, stable growth companies.
As opposed to others who prefer aggressive high-volatility unstable shrinking companies?!

Incredible ..

braumeister 07-11-2016 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro (Post 1754847)
Really now, mr. Sachs?

Incredible ..

Sorry, but if you want real advice from GS, it's gonna cost you.
;D

Rowej 07-12-2016 04:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 (Post 1753971)
So do we break this sideways trading range for a new leg up? Or back to S&P 1,800?

I hope back to 1800

eta2020 07-12-2016 11:07 AM

I hope this is not surprising :)


100 years of charts tell me this is what S&P 500 does all the time.

marko 07-12-2016 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1754152)
All CaliforniaMan was trying to say was that he could see a head-and-shoulder pattern forming, but he was not yet sure if it is not a reverse head-and-shoulder.

You mean like his photo, right?

wmc1000 07-12-2016 11:34 AM

sold IVV that i bought post brexit today. Build up a bit of dry powder!

eta2020 07-12-2016 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1754273)
S&P on 5/31: 2097.

S&P on 6/30: 2099.

If your FA made you so much money for June, he's a h*** of a trader to beat the market so soundly. Or that he picked the right stocks for the month, and concentrated on them.

You got it right :laugh: His FA is a effing genius ;D

RobbieB 07-12-2016 12:15 PM

He's not bad eh? I like him, he's worth his salt (1% AUM)

When I call him he answers the phone. Or his assistant does. Some real person.

I think he did one trade this year, sold the Lilly and bought Astra Zeneca.

I was up 60 grand from last month after Brexit and finished the month up 90 grand.

NW-Bound 07-12-2016 12:22 PM

If this guy makes this much for you, he makes even more for himself.

If I were him, I would not be in the office answering anybody's call. I would be in the Bahamas, swinging in a hammock, sipping pina colada while glancing at my smartphone every so often for my portfolio's total. When the market closes, and I finish my nap, it's time to walk to my favorite restaurant on the beach and see what fresh fish they have for dinner.

Your FA does not know how to enjoy life.

eta2020 07-12-2016 12:39 PM

Average FA has 165 clients. This guys made around 15 Million for his clients in flat month of June. Can you imagine what he will do in July? I would guess 60-100 million by now.


Not bad. He deserves to enjoy his life.

kgtest 07-12-2016 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1755564)
If this guy makes this much for you, he makes even more for himself.

If I were him, I would not be in the office answering anybody's call. I would be in the Bahamas, swinging in a hammock, sipping pina colada while glancing at my smartphone every so often for my portfolio's total. When the market closes, and I finish my nap, it's time to walk to my favorite restaurant on the beach and see what fresh fish they have for dinner.

Your FA does not know how to enjoy life.

My cubemate made me laugh. He keeps talking about his horses, and his 20acres and the hay he makes with his land to feed the horses...

I says to him, wait a second, do you lease your land to farmers...how the hell do you bail hay and maintain your equipment to feed the horses if you are sitting next to me 40hrs /week typing on a keyboard...

He grins...a very big grin...and says "Boy do I have a sweet arrangement".

I say to my cubemate, please do tell...

He says to me, my neighbor owns and maintains the farm equipment, he does the farming and makes hay for me, in return I give him half of the hay.

I says, what the hell does your neighbor do for a living...


He's a financial advisor. :coolsmiley:

NW-Bound 07-12-2016 03:35 PM

I do not know what percentage of the portfolio the $90K represents, but unless the portfolio is big like $9 million so that it is just a small percentage (1% gain), when someone beats the market soundly then it means a concentration in a few stocks, or a sector.

Robbie, if my FA made me this money, I would look into what stocks I held, and asked the FA about his exit plan. No trees ever grow to the sky like Jack's beanstalk, not even something like Apple, or Cisco before it. So at some point one has to pick the ripe fruit and moves on. Not saying that I would sell a stock soon after it jumped a lot, but I would watch and understand if the trend was sustainable.

In Feb 2000, I watched in amazement when my portfolio jumped $30K in a good day (I picked my own stocks). I had less than now, and also was never fully invested so that this gain was big in terms of percentage. I never did sell, and when the market tanked later, these tech stocks crashed a lot harder than the market, and all my gains evaporated.

RobbieB 07-12-2016 03:46 PM

They are mostly large cap US dividend paying companies. A few tech stocks, like facebook that I would have never bought on my own because I hate them. Oh, and Phillip Morris too, another one I would never have bought, friggin' death peddlers.

My bag is less than a third of 9 mill and year to date it's over 10% up. And you think I should sell it eh?

That's why I pay a financial advisor to watch my bag - :)

NW-Bound 07-12-2016 04:00 PM

OK, if your portfolio is diversified, even if it is mostly of one sector of the S&P, then it is reasonably safe. Carry on. :)

One cannot count on any trend lasting forever, but of course there's nothing wrong with celebrating a victory.


PS. About not watching your FA because he's so good, a lot of people made that mistake with Madoff.

RobbieB 07-12-2016 04:09 PM

My guy is not a small operation like Bernie. It's Bank of America - Merrill Lynch.

I think they'll be around for a while - :)

NW-Bound 07-12-2016 04:26 PM

OK. Again, looks like you are safe.

About divie stocks, they have had a good run YTD. Some ETFs like Schwab's SCHD report a 10% gain YTD, like your portfolio. Some of my stocks like JNJ, ATT, Verizon, Walmart, 3M, etc... are up more than 20% YTD. Of course, I did not have enough of them, so the gains are diluted out by the stinkers. But that's the price to pay to be diversified.

PS. Merrill Lynch almost bit the dust, if it were not for BoA bailing them out. They were in over their head in subprimes. Their clients' assets would still be protected though, unlike Bernie's customers.

PPS. I also have accounts with Merrill Edge, a subsidiary of BoA. They are however self-directed accounts.

RobbieB 07-12-2016 04:29 PM

I remember seeing Verizon and AT&T on my list.


Oh yeah, I remember the B of A buyout too. Pretty funny eh? Remember B of A whining about the government "forcing" them to buy Merrill? Oh the pain...

Merrill has been stacking dough for B of A ever since - :)

UnrealizedPotential 07-12-2016 05:15 PM

I think it depends how earnings do. If earnings are decent we will stay at this level in the 2130's and higher. If earnings disappoint then we will likely see a correction or in the very least be in a trading range. Which one is more likely? Who knows?

Closet_Gamer 07-12-2016 07:08 PM

"News Alert: Brits vote to Brexit! Global equities crash pulling down US markets! The end of stock investing is at hand! Western economies as we know them will be shaken to their foundations! Run run run! Sell sell sell! We're all going to die!"

Oh, wait. Nevermind. Nothing to see here. We now return to our regularly scheduled market hypochondria.

;D

NW-Bound 07-12-2016 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB (Post 1755683)
Oh yeah, I remember the B of A buyout too. Pretty funny eh? Remember B of A whining about the government "forcing" them to buy Merrill? Oh the pain...

Merrill has been stacking dough for B of A ever since - :)

I do not own or follow BoA stock, so am not aware of how profitable Merrill Lynch is.

I opened self-directed accounts with Merrill Edge because their offer for some free stock trades is just too good to pass up. If and when they renege on that, I may not stay with them, and may move the money to my existing Schwab accounts. Schwab has free trade on their own ETFs, plus some others.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential (Post 1755706)
I think it depends how earnings do. If earnings are decent we will stay at this level in the 2130's and higher. If earnings disappoint then we will likely see a correction or in the very least be in a trading range. Which one is more likely? Who knows?

Yes, the pundits start to talk about this. And as Alcoa just opened the earning reporting season, we will know soon in the days ahead.

jollystomper 07-12-2016 09:21 PM

The "Brexit week" started with big gains in the first several days... I sense a pattern here... :coolsmiley:

eta2020 07-13-2016 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1755681)
OK. Again, looks like you are safe.

About divie stocks, they have had a good run YTD. Some ETFs like Schwab's SCHD report a 10% gain YTD, like your portfolio.

As far as SCHD and VIG goes I think it is more Wide Moat, high quality tilt of those ETFs that caused 10% gains.

They usually outperform in flat and down markets and underperform in up markets.

NW-Bound 07-14-2016 12:33 AM

Yes. While the above ETFs beat the S&P by 5% in the last 6 months, there were other periods where they trailed the S&P by that much. Different segments of the market take their turns under the sun.

One can make a lot of money if he catches the sector rotation just right, but of course it is not easy.

eta2020 07-14-2016 12:41 AM

Well it looks like SCHD, VIG will average out to beating S&P especially if you add in dividends.


High quality companies with steady raising dividends tend to do that. :)

NW-Bound 07-14-2016 12:53 AM

Didn't Farma and French show that small-cap value stocks outperform over long periods?

Of course small-cap values do not do that every year. My point was that no segments outperform all the time.

Totoro 07-14-2016 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1756070)
Didn't Farma and French show that small-cap value stocks outperform over long periods?

Of course small-cap values do not do that every year. My point was that no segments outperform all the time.

Yes. Supposedly cheap (as in, low book value) & small outperform consistently with long intermediate underperforming stretches.

Greenblatt claims cheap (as in, low P/E) and high ROIC works.

All those make sense: big companies can't go 10x as easy as small companies, a high ROIC indicates a company with a winning business model, and low competition. Cheap doesn't need explanation I guess.

The volatility however in aggregate goes up as well. Small companies go bust more easily, for example.

dixonge 07-14-2016 08:26 AM

Looks like all 3 major indices will be at new highs today, or in the near future. It's been an interesting ride, so far this year!

LOL! 11-22-2016 04:53 AM

PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.

DrRoy 11-22-2016 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dixonge (Post 1756120)
Looks like all 3 major indices will be at new highs today, or in the near future. It's been an interesting ride, so far this year!

It would be great if the last 2 years of consolidation serves as a rally base, but we will just have to wait and see.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! (Post 1803713)
PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.

I took 2% out of equities in August around 2185 as part of a long term AA adjustment approaching RE. Now I will look to 2300.

W2R 11-22-2016 08:13 AM

Wow! That's lovely that the market is doing so well. S&P 2202, Dow 19,001.

Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high. Now, we would all be crestfallen if the market fell down to that level.

Amethyst 11-22-2016 08:16 AM

And look what happened!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 1803755)
Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high.


audreyh1 11-22-2016 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! (Post 1803713)
PSA: S&P500 traded at over 2200 overnight. I recall some folks were saying they would take action at 2200 or other were bets made, but I forget the details.

I'm just watching CAPE10 climb up steeply as company earnings haven't been keeping up with equity prices.

I'm expecting my portfolio to take a severe beating one of these days, who knows when, but we are almost 8 years from the low of 2009. We had a solid correction at the start of this year, but it didn't slow down the rise much.

Santa Claus rally time - it looks like a classic this year. This is the time of year my distributions are paid in cash and I take my annual withdrawal. I always prefer my equities be higher when distributions are paid and I take my withdrawal.

audreyh1 11-22-2016 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 1803755)
Wow! That's lovely that the market is doing so well. S&P 2202, Dow 19,001.

Back when I did my original Wheee!!! post, in 2007, the Dow had just risen past 14,000 and that was a record high. Now, we would all be crestfallen if the market fell down to that level.

OK, so I suggest you wait until Dow 21,000 this time! ;)

Totoro 11-22-2016 08:20 AM

Yeah, we should have a poll on Q1 2017 equity returns.

My (virtual) money would be on minus 10%.

W2R 11-22-2016 08:22 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst (Post 1803757)
And look what happened!!

So true! :rofl: :rofl: :2funny:


Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 1803760)
OK, so I suggest you wait until Dow 21,000 this time! ;)

What's the fun in that! :laugh: :rofl:


Ah well, it's up and down, up and down, the market rollercoaster again.

Totoro 11-22-2016 08:24 AM

Great contrast: Blue shirt vs. Yellow shirt reaction.

W2R 11-22-2016 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro (Post 1803764)
Great contrast: Blue shirt vs. Yellow shirt reaction.

Blue shirt looks happy like me. Yellow shirt looks kind of bored, though, probably dreading the inevitable drop.


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:14 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.