Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

Can you post an update for us gawkers? - ERD50

It's been about 4 weeks since the last screenshot was posted. Can we get another update please? I'm actually following some of the stocks mentioned here closer than I do my own (boring broad-based index funds). Not trading them though.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Any response back from Google?

Maybe you'd get something like "Please do not make investment decisions based on our news stories" .

No, I didn't provide an email. I don't think there was a place to put my email address and I wasn't logged into Google or Youtube or however that works.

 

[Boho]

It's been about 4 weeks since the last screenshot was posted. Can we get another update please? I'm actually following some of the stocks mentioned here closer than I do my own (boring broad-based index funds). Not trading them though.

-ERD50

Comsecga is first, Spudd last in 16th place, and me in 15th.

 

[ERD50]

Comsecga is first, Spudd last in 16th place, and me in 15th.

Thanks. It's kinda interesting that even with this small sample and short time, we've got the broad-based index player right in the middle of the pack. About what would be expected with monkeys and dartboards (no offense intended towards any posters here, monkeys, or dartboards!).

Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.

The closest it gets to that is each player could see his own performance history in table form, one day per row, with each row listing the Cash, Stock Portfolio Value, Option Portfolio Value, Shorted Stock Portfolio Value, and Account Value. You could download it to Excel.

It's also possible to see a limited performance graph for each other player by clicking their name. Here's Comsecga's graph:

 

[sengsational]

Maybe sometime later, with more data, but does it allow you to plot a graph of account values over time, from beginning to end (or current)? That would allow us to get a picture of the relative volatility of the various players/approaches.

Players are able to go to "Corporate Action History" and there's a table which can be pasted into Excel that contains an "account value" column. In my case with a small cash balance, there are transactions on the first of each month: interest accrued. So by eliminating the non-interest rows and plotting, users can have a start to finish representation of their performance.

 

[sengsational]

Has anyone else noticed that the cash balance doesn't agree with the sum of all transactions?

I went to "Trade History" and pulled the data from the "Total Cash Value (of the trasaction)" column, and also pulled the data from the "Corporate Action History" "Total Cash Value". After adding the initial stake and setting the buy transactions negative, that should net out to my cash balance, but it doesn't.

In my case, it's off by $67.61, in the brokerage house's favor. It's been off by various amounts throughout the game. Not big amounts, but I'm just curious if anyone else has noticed and maybe figured out why it doesn't match.

I thought it might have been that my balance went negative for about an hour when I was simultaneously buying and selling, but figured if they charged me interest on borrowed funds, that would be noted in the corporate action history, and I don't show any margin costs there.

 

[Boho]

DRAD stayed way undervalued, and now I'm waiting for the next financial report. Hopefully I'll sell at that time and start trading again and my real life research will help me in the contest.

"Digirad Corporation (DRAD) got back on track in the second quarter by putting up a strong earnings beat ($0.08/share vs. $0.03 expected), returning to profitability"

Too bad I wasn't able to buy as much as I wanted in the contest. I have more than enough in real life though. This is the first win in the trifecta that I'm hoping for.

 

[exnavynuke]

"Digirad Corporation (DRAD) got back on track in the second quarter by putting up a strong earnings beat ($0.08/share vs. $0.03 expected), returning to profitability"

Too bad I wasn't able to buy as much as I wanted in the contest. I have more than enough in real life though. This is the first win in the trifecta that I'm hoping for.

The current "ask" is $4.10 for DRAD. According to your portfolio, your average price purchased for it was $4.16. That doesn't look like much of a "win" currently. EPS beat expectations but sales still down YOY, and Non-GAAP EBITDA down 40% from the same period last year. They had some positive news, but I don't see it spiking on this earnings report, especially with them just "confirming" the same guidance that has been out there for their future expected results.

 

[Boho]

I guess I'd care more about YOY if I bought last year but I bought last quarter. There's no after hours trading with DRAD so maybe it will rise slowly.

 

[easysurfer]

I'm smack dab in the middle position today, 8th place out of 16. Can't complain.

Up 2.17% since contest start .

 

[Boho]

Auto-generated articles from AP and Reuters about stocks don't seem to mention whether expectations were beaten. Changing ratings will probably trickle in though, from analysts who probably consider more than YOY.

 

[easysurfer]

I've snuck up to 7th place at the moment.

Decided to post the leader board rankings as notice the symmetry.

Start of the day, everyone lost money from previous day. Plus, 8 folks with portfolio value above the $1M start, 8 folks below .

 

[Totoro]

Also from a quick glance: losers lost more than the winners won, and good ole index tracker is now ahead of the average?

 

[ERD50]

I've snuck up to 7th place at the moment.

Decided to post the leader board rankings as notice the symmetry.

Start of the day, everyone lost money from previous day. Plus, 8 folks with portfolio value above the $1M start, 8 folks below .

Thanks.

Also from a quick glance: losers lost more than the winners won, and good ole index tracker is now ahead of the average?

Or maybe the better view of that is that the index tracker is the average, and 10 of 16 players are below the average?

Auto-generated articles from AP and Reuters about stocks don't seem to mention whether expectations were beaten. ....

I think a more useful way to look at it is: "The company announced their earnings, and the expectations of the analysts were wrong"

Right? A company doesn't beat or miss 'expectations', it was the expectations that were off. The earnings are fact (unless illegally manipulated), they can't be 'off'.

Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

nunnun is like half in total us market and other half in SP500 index.

I'm have combination of indexes of total us, total int'l, total us bond, and some cash.

At this point, I'm one slot behind nunnun. That is, (at least in theory) until the market drops more .

 

[Texas Proud]

Thanks.



Or maybe the better view of that is that the index tracker is the average, and 10 of 16 players are below the average?



I think a more useful way to look at it is: "The company announced their earnings, and the expectations of the analysts were wrong"

Right? A company doesn't beat or miss 'expectations', it was the expectations that were off. The earnings are fact (unless illegally manipulated), they can't be 'off'.

Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.

-ERD50

You are getting into semantics in this discussion.... but I think you can say they did beat or miss 'expectations'....

It is the expectations that they are referring too, not the actual earnings...


Say I tell you that I expect to earn 7% this next year on my portfolio.... but I actually earn 8%.... then I 'beat' my expectation (the guess)... good for me... if I only got 6% then I 'missed'.... what did I miss? My expectation....

Or, lets go a different direction.... let's use target instead of expectation... so, you shoot a gun... and the bullet goes to the left of center by a foot.... did you hit your target spot? No, because the hole is a foot away... so it is a fact that the hole is a foot away, but you still missed what people were expecting...

For me, I am surprised if there is a huge miss... it is not like there are not whispers going on between companies and analysts.... I remember when I was working for mega and they were pushing for us to get a sale of RE done before qtr end so they could book the $25 mill gain... I never knew why as the earnings were usually in the billions, but someone wanted it.... (it was a bad qtr, so that could be a little of it)...

 

[ERD50]

You are getting into semantics in this discussion.... but I think you can say they did beat or miss 'expectations'....

It is the expectations that they are referring too, not the actual earnings...


Say I tell you that I expect to earn 7% this next year on my portfolio.... but I actually earn 8%.... then I 'beat' my expectation (the guess)... good for me... if I only got 6% then I 'missed'.... what did I miss? My expectation....

Or, lets go a different direction.... let's use target instead of expectation... so, you shoot a gun... and the bullet goes to the left of center by a foot.... did you hit your target spot? No, because the hole is a foot away... so it is a fact that the hole is a foot away, but you still missed what people were expecting...

For me, I am surprised if there is a huge miss... it is not like there are not whispers going on between companies and analysts.... I remember when I was working for mega and they were pushing for us to get a sale of RE done before qtr end so they could book the $25 mill gain... I never knew why as the earnings were usually in the billions, but someone wanted it.... (it was a bad qtr, so that could be a little of it)...

Oh, it absolutely is semantics.

But words are all we have, so it can make a difference. The difference I see in your examples, is that you are the one setting the expectation/target, so yes, you would be the one to be off.

But when I've seen "missed expectations" in financial news reports (which I no longer follow), it almost always means "missed analysts estimates". Am I wrong about that?

I'm going by memory here, but it seems to me most companies do not provide a specific $/share estimate for next quarters earnings. Maybe that opens them up to problems if they miss their own estimates, as in 'misleading investors', and inviting lawsuits?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Saying the company missed/beat expectations is giving analysts far too much credit, and says a lot about people's misplaced faith in the analysts.

As does the current rankings.

The reason the expectations matter here is that the stock was priced in part based on analyst ratings and the price should theoretically go up now that it's been revealed that the analyst ratings were based on too-low expectations. Also, now there's more of a track record that the company is giving the right guidance and going in the right direction. The price target date is closer than last quarter and things seem to be going better than expected by analysts. So I expect the next ratings to be better - from hold to buy or whatever - and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down.

 

[ERD50]

The reason the expectations matter here is that the stock was priced in part based on analyst ratings and the price should theoretically go up now that it's been revealed that the analyst ratings were based on too-low expectations. Also, now there's more of a track record that the company is giving the right guidance and going in the right direction. The price target date is closer than last quarter and things seem to be going better than expected by analysts. So I expect the next ratings to be better - from hold to buy or whatever - and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down.

I didn't say performance versus expectations don't matter, I'm saying it's the analysts who 'miss', not the company.


" things seem to be going better than expected by analysts." Better than expected by analysts? But you are relying on the analysts.

and those who care about ratings will buy and the price will rise. It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down - That's an interesting thought process from someone who is #15/16, and ~ 15% points behind someone who is taking a nap.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

It should have happened already but the auto-generated articles are keeping the price down[/I] - That's an interesting thought process from someone who is #15/16, and ~ 15% points behind someone who is taking a nap.

I was making money in the not so distant past. My picks were based on media stories, and now the stories are incomplete IMO and I'm down. My guess is that most people would expect the next analyst ratings to be better for DRAD, which would make the price rise. If they're not better, then I'm not as good as I thought I was.

 

[nun]

nunnun is like half in total us market and other half in SP500 index.

I'm have combination of indexes of total us, total int'l, total us bond, and some cash.

At this point, I'm one slot behind nunnun. That is, (at least in theory) until the market drops more .

I bought those two things as the site would not let me buy 100% Total US Market. I'm happy that I'm above the middle having done exactly nothing. It will be interesting to see what happens if the market falls. My "sit tight" strategy might not be so good if the year ends on a big downturn, but I didn't get hammered quite as badly yesterday as some of the folks above me and things have tightened up a bit.

 

[Boho]

I also think the coward analysts are waiting for the downward momentum to stop before they revise their ratings for DRAD so they don't appear wrong before they appear right. I didn't do that when I bought so I'm appearing wrong at the moment.

 

[ERD50]

I was making money in the not so distant past. My picks were based on media stories, and now the stories are incomplete IMO and I'm down. My guess is that most people would expect the next analyst ratings to be better for DRAD, which would make the price rise. If they're not better, then I'm not as good as I thought I was.

So the stories are incomplete, and sometimes old. Something tells me the professionals are on top of all that, and driving the price accordingly. Not a few individual investors who didn't look at the dates in the story they just read.

I also think the coward analysts are waiting for the downward momentum to stop before they revise their ratings for DRAD so they don't appear wrong before they appear right. I didn't do that when I bought so I'm appearing wrong at the moment.

So you now have to analyze the analysts who are analyzing the stock? Does that really sound like a strategy to build wealth (that was rhetorical)?

Heck, anything can happen with individual stocks. You might hit a winning streak and pull ahead. But the more I read from you, the less likely I think that is to happen. Being down, with 15% less to work with than 'the napper' makes it a little more challenging.

I'm no good at predicting stock movements, but I will make another prediction: Boho will become a broad-based index investor by the time this little contest is over!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So the stories are incomplete, and sometimes old. Something tells me the professionals are on top of all that, and driving the price accordingly. Not a few individual investors who didn't look at the dates in the story they just read.

The date issue from the stupid little websites that most people never heard of are just an annoyance to me. I'm not assuming they have a significant effect on prices. Reuters and the AP are different.