Thoughts on TESLA

[ERD50]

....

I read the material in the above links, and it says that if a company uses Tesla's patents, then reciprocally, Tesla will also be able to use that company's patents. ....

Sounds like a PR move, another empty thing that the Tesla fans will lap up as the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Companies use patents that way now. But they agree exactly which ones to trade. This almost sounds like a trap - use a Tesla patent, and they get all of yours? Any company with a deep patent library would never submit to that. And a small company w/o useful patents isn't a threat anyhow, and probably couldn't pay Tesla for the patent.

Maybe Tesla realized they can't monetize these patents, so decided to go for the PR instead?

-ERD50

 

[indiajust]

There is definitely some gamesmanship afoot. And PR of course, (it is Elon Musk). Subscribing to a patent pool as an underlying concept has been around for a while now. I suspect this is more than just PR. How much more is anyones guess.

 

[ERD50]

There is definitely some gamesmanship afoot. And PR of course, (it is Elon Musk). Subscribing to a patent pool as an underlying concept has been around for a while now. I suspect this is more than just PR. How much more is anyones guess.

Agreed. There may be something to it, but the devil is in the details, and we probably will never know.

But as you say, Elon does gravitate towards the PR. Occom's Razor leans towards "mostly PR"

I might be wrong on this, but I thought these were patents centered around the charging station technology, which would be good to share to promote more charging stations. Offhand, I would think that would be better accomplished through the standards committees.

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

How much did the charger/installation cost?

Not saying you are a fanbois, but that's something that fanbois seem to gloss over.


-ERD50

I paid $2800 due to the fact my electrical panel is on the exact opposite location from my garage....Its far cheaper if the panel is near wherever you plan to charge. 90% of the people I have heard from have paid less than me. Some are in the 500-1000 range.

In retrospect, I should not have put in a level 2 charger. EV's charge about 4 miles per hour on 110v. I drive 12-18 miles a day with about 50 miles on Sundays..110v would have easily satisfied my charging needs.

I only charge my Model 3 at home. When it gets to 45%, I charge it to 80%. This lasts me about 7 days.

I take the Model X to a supercharger (free supercharging for life). Takes about 25 minutes to charge from 50% to 80%. Charging past 80% takes much longer as the current lowers so as not to damage the battery. By the time I visit the little boys room, check my phone and poke around Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, the car is ready.

 

[NW-Bound]

I talked earlier of getting a used LEAF as a 2nd car to run errands. If I get that, plugging it into a 115V outlet is all I would need.

But my friends here remind me that the battery longevity of the LEAF is not that good. It seems like Tesla cars do have a better life, according to what I have read. The battery technology is what interests me more than anything else about any EV.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I talked earlier of getting a used LEAF as a 2nd car to run errands. If I get that, plugging it into a 115V outlet is all I would need.

But my friends here remind me that the battery longevity of the LEAF is not that good. It seems like Tesla cars do have a better life, according to what I have read. The battery technology is what interests me more than anything else about any EV.

The better life is because the Tesla batteries are liquid cooled. The 2018 Leafs are the first Leafs to have liquid cooling, just like Tesla. Thats why the older Leaf's batteries had their range diminish so rapidly. New Leafs should now retain their range like other EV's.

Picking up an EV as a 2nd car was my strategy. I liked it so much I sold my 2011 Prius for 13k and bought a 2nd EV.

 

[samclem]

I take the Model X to a supercharger (free supercharging for life). Takes about 25 minutes to charge from 50% to 80%.

About as much time as an oil change, and you do it every 200 miles or so.

 

[aja8888]

About as much time as an oil change, and you do it every 200 miles or so.

And that's only a partial charge.

 

[NW-Bound]

The better life is because the Tesla batteries are liquid cooled. The 2018 Leafs are the first Leafs to have liquid cooling, just like Tesla. Thats why the older Leaf's batteries had their range diminish so rapidly. New Leafs should now retain their range like other EV's...

Yes. Nissan committed a major mistake with the original LEAF. But other EVs such as the BMW i3, the Chevy Bolt, and even the older Volt, also employ liquid cooling.

I have not checked to see how the other batteries fare compared to Tesla's, but the reported life of the Tesla batteries is admittedly better than what I expected.

 

[Lakewood90712]

TSLA still holding $250 support.

As for those seeking the base model 3: No Soup For You ! Come back in 8 mo. with $40,000

https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/t...-a-half-measure-14751202?puc=CNBC&cm_ven=CNBC

 

[NW-Bound]

The article that I linked on post #1209 about the analysis from a tear-down by Munro & Associates has this:

...The Model 3 that got the tear-down treatment was a $50,000 version with a black paint job. Munro estimated the total cost to build was $34,700. Adding in logistics costs and a generous assumption for labor, Munro estimates that gross profit margins would exceed 30 percent.

A cheaper version of the Model 3 examined by his team would cost less than $30,000 to build, Munro said, because the smaller battery is less expensive and some other equipment would come out of the car. By comparison, Munro estimated the cost to produce the Chevrolet Bolt at a little more than $30,000 in parts, while the BMW i3 costs less than $33,000. Munro said his margin estimates don’t count costs like R&D investment and engineering...

I could not help thinking that if Musk was not so hard-headed and listened to people working for him who had had experience in the auto industry, Tesla would have achieved better financial status by now.

Musk spent a lot of money on over-automation that other car makers tried and abandoned, and now Tesla takes more labor to build the cars. A double whammy.

Yes, there's always that danger of thinking you are so much smarter than anybody else, and that you know everything.

 

[NYEXPAT]

So, Andrew Left reverses his short position and with earnings out tomorrow the stock rallies 6% today. What a difference a day makes.

 

[imoldernu]

S and X to shorten production time by simplifying interior choices starting Nov. 1.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-eliminate-some-interior-configuration-options-for-model-s-and-x.html

 

[NW-Bound]

Due to this thread, and of course my participation in it, I am now curious to see what Tesla's earning report will say. It will be out after market close tomorrow.

Still have no stake in this stock, and do not bet either way, but this is surely interesting.

 

[FIREarly]

TESLA is a very interesting company running off marketing. The car is great but no plan to buy the stock. Buy Microsoft (MSFT)! It is one of two AAA rated stocks and does very well (with an increasing dividend).

MSFT also goes ex-div in roughly 3 weeks.

 

[Hamlet]

Due to this thread, and of course my participation in it, I am now curious to see what Tesla's earning report will say. It will be out after market close tomorrow.

Still have no stake in this stock, and do not bet either way, but this is surely interesting.

I think it will look very good, and they will use any bump to raise cash.

I think the next quarter's report will look very bad though.

 

[ERD50]

I think it will look very good, and they will use any bump to raise cash.

I think the next quarter's report will look very bad though.

Tesla has held up pretty well against the recent market drops. Up on this news from the guy who was short. Was up this AM, and now down. I would thing the earnings report will need to be very good to sustain this. And then:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/10/24/tesla-midrange-model-3-price-increase/

Tesla has increased the price for its new midrange rear-wheel-drive Model 3 sedan launched just last week by $1,000 to $46,000, according to the company's website.

Does that mean they decided they need the extra $1,000 in margin (not such good news)? Or does it reflect high initial demand, so they decided can raise the price and orders will still meet production (good news in the short term at least).

Hah, Tesla should have sold each car on-line as a reverse auction! They could have really maximized margins, and really have matched demand to supply. Just lower the price anytime that demand drops below forward production capacity. I guess that would not have worked with the pre-orders though?

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

Consumer Report just releases its reliability ratings for Tesla cars.

Model S: below average
Model 3: average.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

TESLA is a very interesting company running off marketing. The car is great but no plan to buy the stock. Buy Microsoft (MSFT)! It is one of two AAA rated stocks and does very well (with an increasing dividend).

MSFT also goes ex-div in roughly 3 weeks.

What does "running off marketing" mean?

 

[Cessna152]

From:
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799

Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update

• GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M
• Operating income of $417M and operating margin of 6.1%
• Free cash flow of $881M supported by operating cash flow of $1.4B
• $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at Q3-end, increased by $731M in Q3
• Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin > 20% in Q3
• Reaffirm expectation of continued GAAP net income and free cash flow in Q4

 

[ERD50]

From:
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799

Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update

• GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M
• Operating income of $417M and operating margin of 6.1%
• Free cash flow of $881M supported by operating cash flow of $1.4B
• $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at Q3-end, increased by $731M in Q3
• Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin > 20% in Q3
• Reaffirm expectation of continued GAAP net income and free cash flow in Q4

Those look like good numbers. Maybe a couple posters who have been MIA lately will pop back in?

What I'm curious to see is what happens when they get to shipping the $35,000 model, that was the cause of so much excitement in the EV crowd. Will the margins be OK by then? And/or will there be enough on-going demand for the higher $ models to push the Average Selling Price high enough for sustainable margins over-all? Will they have formidable competition in that range by the time (if?) they get there?

Or maybe they just survive in a higher $ market? Seems to be some successful brands that don't sell much/any in the $35,000 market?

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

O'neil might have got some of his money back. I don't trade the stock. Whether its at 250 or 350 doesn't affect my ride.

As far as other brands, Leaf has sold 125,000. Model 3 has already sold over 100,000.

I noticed the NHTSA said the Model 3 was the safest car its tested in the last 7 years.

I also noticed Jaguar said it too is contemplating abandoning Ice cars.

 

[ERD50]

Consumer Report just releases its reliability ratings for Tesla cars.

Model S: below average
Model 3: average.

And the EV fans keep pointing out that the EV drive train is so much simpler than an ICE and transmission, so many fewer moving parts. That should mean much higher reliability for an EV, no? Umm, I guess "no".

So the reliability of the common parts (suspension, doors, windows, accessories, etc) must really be awful in the Tesla, to bring the overall average reliability down?

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

And the EV fans keep pointing out that the EV drive train is so much simpler than an ICE and transmission, so many fewer moving parts. That should mean much higher reliability for an EV, no? Umm, I guess "no".

So the reliability of the common parts (suspension, doors, windows, accessories, etc) must really be awful in the Tesla, to bring the overall average reliability down?

-ERD50

When I purchased my model X, about a week later Consumer Reports ran a story giving it an 11 (or was it 13, I'm writing this from memory) on a scale of 100. I believe this was for reliability as well. I don't really remember. This was in the first 3 months of 2018.

I haven't had any trouble with it. I haven't heard any complaints from anybody I know with one.

There is one thing I can guarantee. The negative headlines about Tesla will continue in the media. Reason: they don't advertise like other companies do. Ever seen a Tesla commercial on TV? Or see one in print form?

So all the channels on tv, all those that lean left and the one that leans right, want to see Tesla fail. If every company did what Tesla does, no more revenue from advertising. So the media company would fail, and they don't want to close down.. So if one wants to find a negative headline about Tesla, whether it would be online, on television or in print, one won't have to look long to find it. There are plenty enough that have been linked in this thread. By overjoyed forum members taking glee when they see a negative headline about Tesla, real or imagined. But consider the motivation of the company behind the article.

Now my above theory wouldn't apply to Consumer Reports for obvious reasons.

But really, Consumer Reports, in 2018? I paid attention to them 30 years ago. I did check out what they said about water filters in 2016. But I opted to listen to the owners of Tesla's, the safety ratings, the fact I was given $10,450 in rebates/credits. I test drove it. Other factors I won't bore you with.

I didn't pay any attention to the 11 or 13 score my X got. I knew not to listen to them. I doubt anybody reading these words is saying" That fool Mr. Tightwad, I bought my car based on CR's article".

Now, in closing, who among those that have bashed Tesla and negatively wrote about them in this thread( I'm referring to the 2 or 3 that do so with every comment), will admit that for the 3rd quarter at least, they were wrong?

 

[NW-Bound]

I am neutral about Tesla cars or the company. I have said the cars are not bad (but may not be as great as the fans say). It does not really matter to me anyway, because I do not care about cars.

What I am negative about is its CEO. Way too much BS, particularly about engineering things that I know a bit about. I have not worked in these fields, but understand enough to listen to other engineering experts with hand-on experience in these fields, and I can tell BS from the truth.

If Tesla the company goes down the tube, I will feel bad for the many engineers who work there. They are the ones who actually deliver, not the guy who tweets and claims all the credit.