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-   -   A Dip or a Blip? (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/a-dip-or-a-blip-86823.html)

imoldernu 05-17-2017 11:47 AM

A Dip or a Blip?
 
My portfolio is teeny... not a big thing, but I'd love to hear from my more financially savvy friends, how they see the future of the market... For simplicity, the DJIA.
Not the reason, and no politics, but just your personal thinking about the future.
Tomorrow... One Month... One Year... Five years.

As I type... DJIA -$279.

And... maybe one more thing...
What, if anything would cause you to make a change in your current basic plan... ie. how big a dip? %?

Fedup 05-17-2017 11:52 AM

Who knows?

RobbieB 05-17-2017 12:02 PM

Who cares?

jimbee 05-17-2017 12:09 PM

On average, up.

Whisper66 05-17-2017 12:11 PM

No one knows. But we all make some kind of assumptions, possibly VERY general assumptions, that we base our investment decisions on. Here's mine

Looking at the big picture, I assume the market will continue to go up over time. Wouldn't be invested in it if I didn't think that. I'm hoping to get 5% real return per year over the next several years but my happiness does not count on it. My budget will adjust as needed if market returns are really bad.

Shorter term, I expect and plan for dips in the market. "Normal" dips of 10-20% wouldn't surprise me at all, anytime. However, our retirement financial plans assume we might have a much bigger dip (40%) maybe once in the next 8 yrs or so that we have to be able to handle without selling off equities at a loss. Since our plans include expectation of such dips, don't see us changing anything if they occur.

exnavynuke 05-17-2017 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu (Post 1882873)
My portfolio is teeny... not a big thing, but I'd love to hear from my more financially savvy friends, how they see the future of the market... For simplicity, the DJIA.
Not the reason, and no politics, but just your personal thinking about the future.
Tomorrow... One Month... One Year... Five years.

As I type... DJIA -$279.

And... maybe one more thing...
What, if anything would cause you to make a change in your current basic plan... ie. how big a dip? %?

Tomorrow -??
One month - ??
One year - ??
Five year - probably up.

Total economic collapse in the US would cause me to change my basic plan. Short of that, automatic rebalancing and DCA is good enough for me.

rodi 05-17-2017 12:37 PM

Sure there's a big drop today... and it might be part of a larger correction. If it changes enough - I'll rebalance. Same as if it went up by a lot.

RetireAge50 05-17-2017 12:48 PM

No change in strategy regardless of dips, blips, flips. Basically take what I have left and divide by years I have left.

dvalley 05-17-2017 12:49 PM

Over 5 yrs it's less than a blip...

http://markets.money.cnn.com/cgi-bin...134b650b67a040

steveark 05-17-2017 12:50 PM

History says there should be at least a correction and more likely a bear market in the next two or three years because this bull market has gone on for longer than most or all past bulls. For this reason I'm sitting on a pot of cash that normally I'd have put in the market already. If the market drops I'll buy stock, if it moves sideways I'll slowly buy stock and if it keeps climbing I'll have to admit I was wrong, but it won't hurt much since I don't need the money.

ShokWaveRider 05-17-2017 12:50 PM

300 points in a 20,000 point DOW is peanuts. Not even worth Talking about. Come back when it is 2000 points down and we can talk.

easysurfer 05-17-2017 12:52 PM

This might be the beginning of the "sell in May and go away". But who knows?

Dash man 05-17-2017 12:55 PM

Be very diversified. It's going to be a wild ride. Where it ends up is anybody's guess.

FIREd 05-17-2017 12:55 PM

I have been too busy with our house renovation to keep track of the market or anything else. I am letting my investments ride for now.

Corporateburnout 05-17-2017 01:00 PM

I did not hear about the drop until I saw this thread because I was busy power washing my deck. I don't follow the daily fluctuations of the market as I have no plans to deviate from my AA.

I have three years of living expenses in cash and short term bonds before I have to sell something....

Nightcap 05-17-2017 01:12 PM

The market always goes up, over the long haul. Short haul, it can be a rough ride. When I retired a couple years ago, I did so with a chunk of cash as a hedge against sequence-of-returns risk. I began drawing from my IRA last year, selling a bit at each new high to replenish my cash. In the (highly unlikely) event of another Great Recession, I'm just going to leave my IRA alone until the market recovers.

Funny thing: we've gotten used to a very placid market. Today it's suddenly a little volatile and the financial press is sounding Fear! Fire! Foes! This ain't nuthin'

marko 05-17-2017 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider (Post 1882911)
300 points in a 20,000 point DOW is peanuts. Not even worth Talking about. Come back when it is 2000 points down and we can talk.

+1
But I did make a (very) small buy on this dip. Every dip I try to grab a small deal.

I see the market going up in general with perhaps some more buying opportunities along the way.

OldShooter 05-17-2017 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu (Post 1882873)
... the future.
Tomorrow... One Month... One Year... Five years.

No clue ... No Clue ... No Clue ... Probably higher than today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu (Post 1882873)
... What, if anything would cause you to make a change in your current basic plan... ie. how big a dip? %?

2,000 point drop I'm thinking seriously about buying. >3,000 point drop I am definitely a buyer.

I am never a seller on a market drop. That is the buy-high, sell-low strategy that is the hallmark of naive amateurs.

IMATERP 05-17-2017 02:01 PM

1000 or 2000 point gain or drop would not change my allocation percentage. I like and understand my investments. I have enough cash/future pension dollars that I wouldn't need to sell any stocks/funds for quite some time.

DrRoy 05-17-2017 02:10 PM

Nobody knows, but I vote blip.


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