Will the fed hike next month

[Free bird]

Does anyone feel the fed needs more hikes to control inflation? Are they ahead of the curve? Or on the money?

 

[joeea]

They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I sincerely hope so.... I also agree with the second sentence in the second paragraph above.

 

[Dtail]

They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.

Agree, but perhaps will lessen the number of hikes in 2019 vs. what was originally planned.

 

[Free bird]

When does does "don't fight the fed" apply? Inflation is low. Wages are in check. Employment is I guess full. So when do you know the tipping point has passed & a bear market has been induced?

 

[JDARNELL]

When the Purchasing Managers index dips below 47.

 

[Free bird]

Gotta ways to go. Your booolish then. Big December & January like last time could repeat.

 

[Free bird]

CDs should move up agsin in January. Gotta watch that yield curve.

 

[Free bird]

Inflation is in the pipeline. Constriction materials have gone up & the fed might have data the gen pop doesn't have.

 

[DEC-1982]

Does anyone feel the fed needs more hikes to control inflation?

Yes.

Are they ahead of the curve? Or on the money?

On the money.

 

[Montecfo]

Will hike in Dec. That's largely baked in. 3 hikes next yr seems too much. They need to say they will be data dependent.

 

[target2019]

They will hike their rates next month.

It's important to get them higher while the economy is still good. That way they'll have some room to drop the rates when needed.

I agree with each point. Yes, this is a "me too" post.

 

[Free bird]

Powell's boss doesn't want more rate hikes.

 

[Running_Man]

It is an interesting thesis that has been built up over the year, stock market gains are justified economy is in great shape, tax cuts will keep economy booming, earning in 2019 will be 10% higher, oops stock market drops, economy must be slowing fed hikes rates too fast Powell 3 weeks after saying rates have a lot further to go to get to neutral changes tack and says rates nearly neutral, stock market soars expecting no future rates economy should grow 10%. I think FED is boxed in, if they don't raise inflation will increase, if they raise it puts too much pressure on record corporate debt balance sheet and affects margins. Most likely FED is data dependent, only the data they watch is the S&P500 in actuality. Nothing else has really changed in the last 3 weeks for the FED to have changed stances. SO if the S&P500 increase to record highs they will raise rates otherwise they will stop, if S&P500 breaks badly they will cut.

 

[Free bird]

They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I think they will raise 1 more in December to keep the raises in 2018, then re-evaluate for 2019.

 

[audreyh1]

I think they will raise 1 more in December to keep the raises in 2018, then re-evaluate for 2019.

Agreed.

There have been economy slowing signs over the past few weeks, so re-evaluation for 2019 makes sense. Ultimately the Fed has to be data dependent, and there has been a lot of tightening this year, plus the Fed balance sheet unwind is going full bore putting pressure on the longer end.

Notice that corporate spreads have widened too. The lower quality bonds are being punished because people are getting nervous.

But I still expect a December raise.

 

[kgtest]

They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.

I'll bet the farm on a December hike.


Also see another 2 or 3 trading days of +2-3%. That will happen before the hikes, setting up the backdrop for the cause of the hike... sustained growth, and an economy that isn't overheated.


Of course I am guessing, and have no skin in this game but I see a dovish fed the next 2 quarters. All the analysts keep pushing out to the second half of 2019 as the bellwether. I can somewhat agree that right now with the recent pull backs we could climb a bit higher before another correction in the middle of 2019.

 

[OldShooter]

I don't see the point of worrying about this question. The market consensus is baked into the market prices. And the consensus is based on far more information than any retail investor can access or absorb.

If the consensus is wrong, prices will move, but the direction depends on the direction of the error. So betting against the consensus is basically gambling. Dice games are fun but usually not profitable in the long run.

 

[Texas Proud]

Powell's boss doesn't want more rate hikes.

They're wind sniffers bureacrats posing as an all knowing entity free of politics. Oh pleeze. The boss will make them stand down on rates next month most likely.

No boss as you present it... and there will be more rate hikes... "the boss" can bloviate all he wants but will not affect the decision...



The question is will there be 3 or 4 next year.... now some are starting to predict 2, but I think that would only happen if the economy took a downturn which does not look like it will happen right now...

 

[Montecfo]

It was a mistake for Powell to be so hawkish. Recent comments simply acknowledge the mistake. Fed should always be data dependent and should say so.

 

[Oz investor]

will they rise this month ( December ) ?

i think YES !

my logic is the Fed needs room to move if there is a major downturn

now next year will be a harder question i think 2 more rises , before the global economy goes into a major downturn ( about the middle of 2019 , pick your favourite trigger .. there are plenty of candidates )

the US is not an island there are plenty of internal and external issues that could topple the 'wall of worry '

 

[WWDog]

Pentagon CD rates as of today.

Term Rate APR

1 Year 2.76% 2.80%
2 Year 2.91% 2.95%
3 Year 3.01% 3.05%
4 Year 3.10% 3.15%
5 Year 3.44% 3.50%
I have two CDs with them. One matures late Jan and the other mid Feb. I think I will add to the regular CD and have to let the Roth stand as I don't have earned income anymore. I thought about laddering one or both but I believe I will just take the 5 year term on both then buy more each year to form a top heavy ladder on the regular CD. I went by and talked to them today on how much is insured and was surprised that they are insured up to $250,000 for each owner and beneficiaries. That meant, according to the guy I talked to, one CD can be insured for many multiples of $250,000. With a wife as the primary and three kids as secondary the CD could be insured up to a million. I may have to look that up to make sure as it is contrary to what I understood before the conversation. Can anybody got any thoughts on this? EDIT: The normal CD is under a trust which has primary and secondary beneficiaries and the Roth has primary and beneficiaries.

 

[SecondCor521]

@WWDog, the FDIC (and I believe NCUA) insurance limits were raised from $100K to $250K several years ago during the financial crisis.

The limits are per member financial institution per depositor with identical titling. So if you have a checking account and a savings account at Bank X, the total of those two is covered to $250K. If you have a checking account with kid #1 as beneficiary and a checking account with kid #2 as a beneficiary, that would be different titling and each would be covered to $250K.

I successfully used this technique to protect $250K at IndyMac Bank when the limit was $100K. I had three savings accounts, each under $100K, with each of my three kids as beneficiary. Good thing too, as the bank went under when I had the money there. Got every penny back.

(Not sure how it works with spouses though. I was single at the time. Also not sure about trusts, although I suspect they are considered different titling than the Roth since a trust is considered as a separate "individual".)

 

[WWDog]

I just looked it up online and the term unique beneficiary is used. I believe the guy gave me some good poop from the way I read it each of those CDs are insured up to one million with the way I have it set up. Not that I have that much at present. But my spread sheet that goes out till I will be too old to care and spread sheets are obsolete shows that it is a possibility.