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-   -   I vote to call it a Bear Market! (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-vote-to-call-it-a-bear-market-95345.html)

NYEXPAT 12-20-2018 04:25 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
With the Russell 2000,Nasdaq and 60% of the S&P in a Bear Market, I think we can stop calling it a correction. Agree or disagree with a +1 or -1.

jazztbone 12-20-2018 04:46 PM

-1

Onward 12-20-2018 04:48 PM

-1

Not yet.

VanWinkle 12-20-2018 04:51 PM

-1

W2R 12-20-2018 04:53 PM

I changed my avatar when I saw this thread. Maybe this is a "Teddy Bear Market"? ;D At least, so far. I agree with others that it's probably not a full fledged Bear Market quite yet.

TBH I expect it to get much worse before long, but then what do I know about it?
(answer: absolutely nothing).

easysurfer 12-20-2018 04:56 PM

+0.5

I'm holding back to see how things are January before calling it bear or no bear :popcorn:.

Dash man 12-20-2018 05:02 PM

I’ll worry if my dividends start being cut.

OldShooter 12-20-2018 05:11 PM

I don't think the market cares what people call it.

When asked what the market was going to do, J.P. Morgan supposedly said: "It will fluctuate."

That's really all I know and all I need to know.

Red Badger 12-20-2018 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easysurfer (Post 2160359)
+0.5

I'm holding back to see how things are January before calling it bear or no bear :popcorn:.

+.05

So, combined, another +1. ;D 2018 corp reports will be interesting. So yup, perhaps Jan or Feb I can weigh in....:popcorn:

redduck 12-20-2018 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2160367)
I don't think the market cares what people call it.

Of course the market cares what people think: it reacts and often over-reacts to people's thoughts and feelings. For instance, if people call it a correction and soon afterwards a whole bunch of people begin to call it a bear even before it becomes a bear, it can turn into a real nasty bear.

footenote 12-20-2018 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT (Post 2160348)
With the Russell 2000,Nasdaq and 60% of the S&P in a Bear Market, I think we can stop calling it a correction. Agree or disagree with a +1 or -1.

+1

This bear has been / continues to be forecast by many previously-reliable signals.

street 12-20-2018 07:05 PM

I really don't know which way to agree. I do know, that I hope it isn't a nasty bear, if that is what it is.

Souschef 12-20-2018 07:09 PM

On the bright side, it has decreased my RMD;)

street 12-20-2018 07:18 PM

^ less taxes to pay. LOL

target2019 12-20-2018 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT (Post 2160348)
With the Russell 2000,Nasdaq and 60% of the S&P in a Bear Market, I think we can stop calling it a correction. Agree or disagree with a +1 or -1.

-1

NW-Bound 12-20-2018 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT (Post 2160348)
With the Russell 2000,Nasdaq and 60% of the S&P in a Bear Market, I think we can stop calling it a correction. Agree or disagree with a +1 or -1.

-1. Not yet.

The S&P high was 2940.91. It closed today at 2467.42. That's -16.1% down. Only 4 more percents to go. It may make it there before New Year. Plenty of time for us to celebrate NY and start 2019 in the pits. Why rush it?


Quote:

Originally Posted by Souschef (Post 2160411)
On the bright side, it has decreased my RMD;)

But, but, but it increases my WR. :mad:

Nick12 12-20-2018 07:36 PM

-1. If you have cash, perfect time to buy when market is down. The ones who are going to miss out are the panic sellers.

JackJester 12-20-2018 07:37 PM

-1 The longest bull can't last forever. Now is better for me personally than later with OMY/TMY left, so I'm biased.

38Chevy454 12-20-2018 08:30 PM

-1, although it is getting close to the official 20% down. Just 4% to go down, which at the current rate of approx 2% loss per day means we should hit the official bear next week, in time for year end performance results to look worse.

audreyh1 12-20-2018 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160420)
-1. Not yet.

The S&P high was 2940.91. It closed today at 2467.42. That's -16.1% down. Only 4 more percents to go. It may make it there before New Year. Plenty of time for us to celebrate NY and start 2019 in the pits. Why rush it?




But, but, but it increases my WR. :mad:

Yep, I’m waiting for the official S&P 500 index 20% down.

Yeah my 2019 income has been dropping steadily over the past two months!

TNBigfoot 12-20-2018 08:49 PM

+1. Think the politics at play will make it so. Hoping it’s a short one. Looking at Oct 19 fore FIRE.

Chuckanut 12-20-2018 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160448)
Yep, I’m waiting for the official S&P 500 index 20% down.

+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Keep in mind oil has hit another low. While this may not be great for the industries and areas where most oil is produced, it is good for businesses and consumers and even government agencies that do things like run bus lines. And unemployment is still very low. It's not all bad news.

FWIW, investors need lower prices to get the returns they need to FIRE. Maybe not this group, but others do.

audreyh1 12-20-2018 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160455)
+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Keep in mind oil has hit another low. While this may not be great for the industries and areas where most oil is produced, it is good for businesses and consumers and even government agencies that do things like run bus lines. And unemployment is still very low. It's not all bad news.

FWIW, investors need lower prices to get the returns they need to FIRE. Maybe not this group, but others do.

Well it will certainly bring down the headline CPI and PPI numbers, putting less pressure on the Fed to be aggressive against inflation.

redduck 12-20-2018 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160455)
+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Sounds like you're kind of aggressive when someone wakes you.

NW-Bound 12-20-2018 10:22 PM

Grizzly coming out of hibernation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YexQcXnVSzg

atmsmshr 12-21-2018 05:57 AM

+1 or -1 depending on what Running Man says.

Maenad 12-21-2018 06:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by footenote (Post 2160405)
+1

This bear has been / continues to be forecast by many previously-reliable signals.

Yeah, for years now. ;D

ShokWaveRider 12-21-2018 07:22 AM

Getting there +1. I think like when one gets a disease or ailment, the first reaction is denial. I do not think it is just the USA. There is so much geopolitical uncertainty, all markets are somewhat volatile. As for the USA, 10 years of a rally has to end at some point. The market cannot just go up ad infinitum.

I just looked at the 100 DOW year chart, with respect to 3 bear markets, '82, '02, '09

The drops in Rough numbers were: 5k, 5k & 8k respectively.

Again these numbers are NOT exact just a very rough average. So based on this one can reasonably expect a ~40% to ~50% drop in the near future from the 2018 high. This is pure speculation on my behalf.

CRLLS 12-21-2018 07:30 AM

Bear is just a name. Whether it is called a Correction or a Bear market, I picked the wrong year to start retirement withdrawals.:facepalm:

street 12-21-2018 08:21 AM

WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

revhappy 12-21-2018 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by street (Post 2160582)
WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

The crash is one thing and what happens after that is equally important. In 2008, the market didn't take too long to bounce back so if you closed your eyes for 2 years you won't notice anything. I hope this time too the bounce back is as swift.

Closet_Gamer 12-21-2018 08:39 AM

+1...but I'm biased as I'm rooting for Mr. Bear to arrive.

I will be a net buyer of securities for at least the next 10 years, probably more like 15 years. I'd rather buy them cheaply.

My next tranche of stock options would lock at a lower price. (Tactical problem would be that my restricted shares would vest at a lower price, but those aren't levered while options are.)

A good bear that knocks my assets back will also stiffen my spine a bit on ensuring I'm really financially ready to FIRE.

C'mon Mr. Bear. Papa wants to see Dow 19K!!

USGrant1962 12-21-2018 10:05 AM

Everyone knows that -16% is an antelope market.
-17% is an otter.
-18% is a zebra.
-19% is a garden slug.
-20% is a bear.
-21% is a donkey.

As others have said - the market doesn't care, but there is a generally accepted definition of bear, and we are not there. Yet.

MichaelB 12-21-2018 10:10 AM

It’s a vomiting camel
 
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BuFOx3uDbu4

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 10:11 AM

I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160650)
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

No doubt the Vomiting Camel was named by the same guys who named the constellations. ;D

RenoJay 12-21-2018 10:15 AM

+2

I think much of the investing world is in denial. In 2008 - 2012, I could barely find anyone who thought stocks made sense. They gave plenty of reasons. In the press it was labeled, "the most hated bull market in history." Now, AFTER an amazing 10 year run, it seems everyone I talk to is suddenly a believer in buy and hold, indexing, etc. Generally euphoria comes at the end of a bull market and it takes a long time for The Euphoric to acknowledge things have changed. (I have Bitcoin friends who keep telling me how they're staying the course, LOL! I wonder what would have happened if they challenged their own beliefs a year ago??) Anyway, I'm mostly out of this market and will get back in when I start seeing threads where virtually no one can say anything positive about the future of stocks.

OldShooter 12-21-2018 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160651)
I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
– Warren Buffett

street 12-21-2018 10:25 AM

Good stuff! Even in bad times we have to find the good and be able to laugh. The bad times go by faster that way. LOL

SumDay 12-21-2018 10:28 AM

I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d

GravitySucks 12-21-2018 10:46 AM

-1.
Probably next week though ...
I don't care as much if the market gets labelled Correction or Bear as much as I stay labelled Eccentric rather than Crazy.

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160650)
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

This gets my vote for the best response so far. And yes, looking at my portfolio I do feel like vomiting too.

Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth.

On the bright side, we did a kitchen remodel and most of that money came out before the markets had a chance to loose it.

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal (Post 2160677)
Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth...

I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself. :)

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160713)
I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself. :)

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

I would never propose you brush that bear's teeth. :)

audreyh1 12-21-2018 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumDay (Post 2160661)
I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d

Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160728)
Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

So figure we can "lift our Hedges" in time for Xmas 2019! Now, what can I do to occupy my time next year? Oh right, I can do my 2020 stagflation preparation!

UnrealizedPotential 12-21-2018 12:26 PM

+1


I am calling this a bear market. The Nasdaq is already there. Plus I see absolutely nothing that is going to change things around anytime soon. The Fed wants to keep raising interest rates, twice penciled in next year, which is subject to change up or down. Trade with China doesn't look hopeful and we have a government shutdown looming.


The Fed thinks the economy is doing fine, the stock market thinks it's slowing down. So many issues out there, and not much hope anything gets fixed anytime soon. So while we are not officially there in all three major U.S. indexes, I think a Bear market will happen soon across the board.

steelyman 12-21-2018 12:39 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

W2R 12-21-2018 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman (Post 2160745)
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th. If you include my bank account it's down even less. And this is before getting a good chunk of my December yield.

Not a Bear Market for me.... just a huggable Teddy Bear market.

Just 6 days after my infamous "Wheee!!!" post in October of 2008, my portfolio had dropped 7.4%.

And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

steelyman 12-21-2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2160750)
After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th.



Not a bear for me....



Excellent! You can watch all the doom and gloom headlines and let them roll off.

My recent high point was later in the year, probably July or August. I withdrew some not long after so would have to adjust to get a real reading. I think it helps to keep things in context (vs get too swept up by headlines).

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2160750)
And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160728)
Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

Okie dokie. We should all prepare ourselves for one more year of pain.

Where's that button that Jim Cramer has for sound effects?

"The house of pain!"

W2R 12-21-2018 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160762)
It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

Well, I was working for the first thirteen months after Wheee!!! day (retired on 11/9/2009). So an increase of 40% is not as great as it sounds. Still, I have no complaints about the market since then, as a whole.

One great thing about the market falling like this - - - FINALLY we may be spared the endless predictions of an imminent crash, by both forum members and mass media financial analysts, that we have been enduring constantly for the past decade.

dtbach 12-21-2018 02:00 PM

I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

Dtail 12-21-2018 02:05 PM

Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

W2R 12-21-2018 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dtbach (Post 2160774)
I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

I know this probably sounds sick, but TBH I am so glad the waiting is over! Everyone has been expecting this for ages. It's been reminiscent of The Pit and The Pendulum by E.A. Poe.

I am SO ready for this. I have a paid off house and car, no debt, low expenses, and claimed Social Security based on my own employment last July, at age 70. Love those big SS deposits! Not only that, but I have extra cash in the bank that I was going to use to buy that SUV that I never did buy, plus cash that is actually 2018 money that I never spent since no big unexpected expenses came up this year.

Moemg 12-21-2018 02:09 PM

I just find this market annoying.We need one good day between all the gloom.It is dampening my Christmas mojo.

steelyman 12-21-2018 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman (Post 2160745)
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.


I went ahead and did a rough, not laser-precise, calculation using my data with a weekly granularity.

My recent high occurred during the first week of September. Since then, down ~11.85% so I call a personal correction. Of course, who knows if that will become a bear?

NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail (Post 2160778)
Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

I am thinking more like the 2007 highs!

MichaelB 12-21-2018 02:16 PM

How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.

Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2160656)
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
– Warren Buffett

Hopefully, the transfer of money will go from the Nervous Nellies and GetRichQuick crowd to my kids. Not from me!!;D

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 02:49 PM

FWIW, since I have no special or secret knowledge relating to the stock market, I think many investors are a bit freaked out by the interest rate increases. They have to think that the war on savers very low interest rates are normal, the way things should be. OTOH, I remember my father being overjoyed to get a 5.8% mortgage. He considered under 6% mortgages back then to be a deal.

Combine the interest rate increase effect with the trade issues and tariffs that might damage economic growth, and I can see a case for a lower market. But, I don't expect a Bear market because the economy is still strong, interest rates while higher are certainly not historically high, and unemployment is very low. Lower oil prices can't hurt either, unless one lives in an area that depends on high oil prices. Sorry about that Alaska, Texas, and the rest.

At some point people will remember or learn that somewhat higher interest rates for mortgages, t-bills, etc. are normal. And, one way or the other this tariff/trade conflict will end. The only question is when. ???

My 2¢ from a guy who knows no more than you do. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

JoeWras 12-21-2018 02:51 PM

There's something about a trillion. Every time companies near it, or touch it, the market bounces off. Happened in 2000 too, except then the number was $500B. About equivalent to now.

Feels to me that a bear bit my butt.

zaqxsw 12-21-2018 03:00 PM

Hey! Most dividends are going UP! :) In at least half of my portfolio holdings.

No expert here, but my reinvested dividends are buying more stock. Isn't that what counts in the long run?

I know, easy to say being retired, and not needing anything more. It's just numbers, right? I will comfortably sleep and eat tonight and tomorrow...

How can I be hurting???

It's numbers for me. I like W2R's posts.

retired1 12-21-2018 03:05 PM

+1 Already seeing -10% drop in my portfolios

foxfirev5 12-21-2018 03:14 PM

Yep she's a bear. As a retiree living on dividends etc I see no need to overreact, yet. However, past experience indicates that dividends will fall as well. This quarters dividends reflect the past not the future.
Buckle up. It could get bumpy.
Heaven forbid I may have to fly coach next year.

O2Bfree 12-21-2018 03:32 PM

Bear market? Are layoffs coming?? I want to go out with a severance package!

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 03:36 PM

I think the next 12 months are going to be very profitable.

zaqxsw 12-21-2018 03:43 PM

I sure hope it doesn't rebound before the first of the year. I've still got two more years of ROTH conversions to do.

Another positive about all of this, but it is a selfish thought...

easysurfer 12-21-2018 03:49 PM

1 Attachment(s)
What? I ain't afraid of no bear!

Gulp .....

O2Bfree 12-21-2018 04:06 PM

All I want for Christmas is some VTSAX, some VTSAX, some VTSAX...

steelyman 12-21-2018 04:57 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160786)
How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.



Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.


It’s just another way of looking at your general trend but in a non-competitive way (vs YTD-type stuff) and not bracketed by specific calendar dates.

I agree about internationals, they’ve been a monkey on the back.

ShokWaveRider 12-21-2018 05:04 PM

Another 900 points to go down on the S&P till I consider getting in... :) Only another ~18 or so more full trading days give or take.

joeea 12-21-2018 05:23 PM

I didn't realize this was something that could be voted on! Is there an electoral vote, or just a popular vote?

Can I get an absentee ballot? To be honest, I'll probably just throw it away, since I don't care at all what you label it.

corn18 12-21-2018 05:28 PM

Yeeeeehah! Ride 'em, cowboy!

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...d8fb3d6cfa.png

NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corn18 (Post 2160900)

Thanks for that, I love a good chart!

redduck 12-21-2018 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O2Bfree (Post 2160847)
All I want for Christmas is some VTSAX, some VTSAX, some VTSAX...

There just might be a VTSAX after Christmas sale: you know, like 40% off the lowest price on the tag.

Oz investor 12-21-2018 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zaqxsw (Post 2160803)

No expert here, but my reinvested dividends are buying more stock. Isn't that what counts in the long run?

that philosophy has been working for me so far , but there will be a time in the near future ( 2020 ) when i will need to take some of those dividends ( not all , hopefully ) in cash

good luck

Ed B 12-21-2018 07:14 PM

My personal portfolio has me close to correction territory. I am down 7.12%

But as far as the Markets in general it looks we are less than a week from reached to -20% threshold.

-1 as of today, but a week/month/quarter from now my vote may change.

Siestatime 12-21-2018 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160420)
-1. Not yet.

The S&P high was 2940.91. It closed today at 2467.42. That's -16.1% down. Only 4 more percents to go. It may make it there before New Year. Plenty of time for us to celebrate NY and start 2019 in the pits. Why rush it?




But, but, but it increases my WR. :mad:



Agree. Not yet. It will get worse - and the faster, the better. It’s long overdue. Let’s hope for a quick rebound. Happy New Year!

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 11:18 PM

I took advantage of a pretty good Holiday sale today. I shopped at the stock market. Just a bit.

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2161048)
I took advantage of a pretty good Holiday sale today. I shopped at the stock market. Just a bit.

What? Is it 20% sale already? :coolsmiley:

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 11:42 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound
What? Is it 20% sale already? :coolsmiley:


Touchè

It was just a bit. I’m still planing on a good night’s sleep.

rocketjockey 12-22-2018 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2161048)
I took advantage of a pretty good Holiday sale today. I shopped at the stock market. Just a bit.

Me too, put about 25% of my "dry powder/wait for the inevitable downswing to buy" money to work on VTI.

And then it went down some more....;) Insert falling knife jokes here...

DEC-1982 12-22-2018 06:38 AM

If your equity investments are only Nasdaq or Russell 2000, then yes it is a bear market. But most folks are not invested like that (if they are invested in equities at all).

I saw 400 point drops 4 out of 5 days this week, which almost looked like an orderly decline if you were not watching the market minute by minute. Not a capitulation. I think the average bear goes down around 28% and we are still 10-12% from there.

Timeisprecious 12-22-2018 08:38 AM

Historically, this too shall pass.
 
+0.5

I don't think we should call it "bear" yet, but yes - it's been a wild ride since October. I tried not to look at the Dow yesterday, but I couldn't help myself. I'm keeping two things in mind: (1) They're not actually losses 'til you cash them out, and (2) historically, this too shall pass. It may take years, but that portion of my portfolio is a 10+ year investment anyway.

Funny - that chunk of my portfolio was invested conservatively until my annual portfolio review at the end of September. The counselor said, "you need more buffer against inflation." So, I made an adjustment and well, you know the rest of the story ... :laugh:

cb7010 12-22-2018 10:38 AM

Is A Correction/Bear After Bubble Really A Correction
 
The markets had a meteoric rise over the past 8-9 years fueled by 0% interest rates, so now a pullback, because Fed Funds rate is at 2.25% (Still 0% nominally), that really illustrates the entire market is indeed an easy money fueled bubble. Is it really rational to call any form of retracement tied to the normalization of rates a correction or bear market?

Thus, I'm voting "0"!

Chuckanut 12-22-2018 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketjockey (Post 2161065)
Me too, put about 25% of my "dry powder/wait for the inevitable downswing to buy" money to work on VTI.

I did not put much additional into the stock market. What I actually did was do some of my re-balancing early in case the doom and gloom crowd is wrong. I increased my light holdings of international stocks a bit to get the high returns I need to fund my profligate lifestyle. :dance:

Now it's back to sleep until the market is down 20% or more.
This may be a very short nap. Who knows?

HFWR 12-22-2018 11:11 AM

My BIV holding (VG intermediate BF) dropped below my 10% rebalance band during late summer. I held off rebalancing until the September rate hike, and even then was concerned about losses on the way to several more rate hikes. Funny, BIV is now 11% over, but no stock fund is below -10% yet (VTI is at -6.1%), so holding off on rebalancing. May get a chance still yet. On a good note, should be a nice chunk of income coming from December dividends/interest.

NYEXPAT 12-22-2018 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O2Bfree (Post 2160827)
Bear market? Are layoffs coming?? I want to go out with a severance package!

Bear Market, not to be confused with a recession!

Winemaker 12-22-2018 11:37 AM

It will continue in this calendar year for harvesting tax losses, and into January when folks begin their withdrawals. Then, when corporate earnings start coming out and asset re allocation begins, things should get better. Or not. That's my wine sludge interpretation, and it's worth about the same.

RenoJay 12-22-2018 12:11 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
There is a ton of “confidence” in this thread that what’s happened already is either a buying opportunity or close to one. I’ll suggest that even though there will likely be short term big bounces, we still have a lot farther down to go and that the next 7,000 point Dow move will be down, not up. After the Great Depression stock drop of 90% in 1929-1932, stocks rallied big time on govt. intervention. Then as that intervention waned, stocks dropped 60% in 1937. (Most people know of the first drop but not the second.) In Japan, their market (admittedly MUCH more overvalued than U. S.) peaked in....wait for it....1989 and is currently around half that peak in nominal terms. Their govt has pumped unbelievable amounts of stimulus into market but at this point it appears their buyers are on strike. The US govt and corporations have incredible amounts of debt that dwarf the Great Recession. Much of the market’s awesome 10 year gains were built on the back of “easy money.” Each successive QE proved much less effective than the previous one implying that there’s a limit to borrowing our way to prosperity. Yes, stocks look cheap compared with near term earnings. But ultimately the market is a forward-looking mechanism that cares about long term expected performance. Serious weakness in housing, global oil demand and other things imply that the ultimate consumers of goods and services may be more tapped out than near term earnings suggest. Be wary of catching a falling knife. Often the time to get excited is when you can’t find anyone who feels the market is a deal, your neighbors give you dirty looks when you talk stocks, and people quietly nurse their losses. Currently it seems there are tons of people in a rush to call a bottom (which would make this bear WAAAAY shorter than an average one) which makes me believe it’s a “bear trap” where a bunch of folks jump in for “bargains”, get a nice bounce, just to watch their newfound gains disappear shortly thereafter while market hits lower lows.

NYEXPAT 12-22-2018 01:06 PM

Many on this board do not put much weight into the CAPE ratio and the one's that do talk about reverting to the mean at Cape "15". I wonder how many here believe it is likely to go to 10 or 5 even before reverting to the mean?

RAE 12-22-2018 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RenoJay (Post 2161298)
There is a ton of “confidence” in this thread that what’s happened already is either a buying opportunity or close to one. I’ll suggest that even though there will likely be short term big bounces, we still have a lot farther down to go and that the next 7,000 point Dow move will be down, not up.



The US govt and corporations have incredible amounts of debt that dwarf the Great Recession. Much of the market’s awesome 10 year gains were built on the back of “easy money.” Each successive QE proved much less effective than the previous one implying that there’s a limit to borrowing our way to prosperity. Yes, stocks look cheap compared with near term earnings. But ultimately the market is a forward-looking mechanism that cares about long term expected performance. Serious weakness in housing, global oil demand and other things imply that the ultimate consumers of goods and services may be more tapped out than near term earnings suggest. Be wary of catching a falling knife. Often the time to get excited is when you can’t find anyone who feels the market is a deal, your neighbors give you dirty looks when you talk stocks, and people quietly nurse their losses.


+1, I totally agree. After the way the markets bounced back strongly after 2008/09, it's easy to see why many investors are anxious to buy at the current level, which seems like a bargain on the surface. And, if your time horizon is long, it might work out just fine. But for those with a shorter time horizon, I would not be buying right now. The 4.5 trillion dollar QE was an artificial stimulus that will likely not be repeated anytime soon, for one thing. Also, markets don't like uncertainty, and I can't think of any time in the last several decades when there was more uncertainty in the world than right now. And if anything, it's going to get worse before it gets better. I could easily see markets struggling for the next several years or so. I might be all wrong, but for me personally, this is a time to be very cautious, not aggressive.

dtbach 12-22-2018 01:20 PM

A couple of years from now we will know who is right. I'm waiting until at least mid January before using any "dry powder".


Has anyone thought about how 401K plans might effect the market. Every month millions of employees send billions of dollars to fund managers. They rather quickly have to put it to work in the equity funds they run. At some point this may turn the corner.

USGrant1962 12-22-2018 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAE (Post 2161326)
...Also, markets don't like uncertainty, and I can't think of any time in the last several decades when there was more uncertainty in the world than right now...

So you think there is more uncertainty now than the bottom of the dot.com crash, the day after 9/11, or the depths of the Great Recession? Wow.

aja8888 12-22-2018 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT (Post 2161267)
Bear Market, not to be confused with a recession!

There's no recession where we live. Every restaurant has at least an hour wait time Tuesday thru Saturday, BMW's are like the state bird, last year 46 new restaurants opened up in our unincorporated township, and "help wanted" signs are everywhere.

I think this is the case in most of the U.S.

El Magnifico Loco 12-22-2018 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cb7010 (Post 2161243)
The markets had a meteoric rise over the past 8-9 years fueled by 0% interest rates, so now a pullback, because Fed Funds rate is at 2.25% (Still 0% nominally), that really illustrates the entire market is indeed an easy money fueled bubble. Is it really rational to call any form of retracement tied to the normalization of rates a correction or bear market?

Thus, I'm voting "0"!

Good point re: retracement.
Even after retracing, the S&P has a P/E of 18-19, which is above historical levels. I believe the WORST bear markets have ended with a P/E of ~7. And we haven't had one of those in a while. Personally, I'm keeping my powder dry until the S&P hits 12. But I've been saying this for years . . . .:facepalm:

Chuckanut 12-22-2018 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RenoJay (Post 2161298)
There is a ton of “confidence” in this thread that what’s happened already is either a buying opportunity or close to one. I’ll suggest that even though there will likely be short term big bounces, we still have a lot farther down to go and that the next 7,000 point Dow move will be down, not up. After the Great Depression stock drop of 90% in 1929-1932, stocks rallied big time on govt. intervention. Then as that intervention waned, stocks dropped 60% in 1937.

You may be right. Or wrong. Who knows for certain?

I figure that if I have setup my situation properly, I can survive even a 60% drop in the market that lasts for 3-5 years. However, if the worst happens, y'all will have to BYOB to my parties or drink my very cheap beer. Your choice.

FWIW, I thought that one reason the great crash of the 30's was so bad was many margin buyers putting down $1 for every $10 worth of stock they bought. Can't do that today. And, of course, new tariffs that restricted trade. We can do that today. :eek:

In the meantime anybody else's guess is as good as mine. So......

:popcorn:

RAE 12-22-2018 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962 (Post 2161343)
So you think there is more uncertainty now than the bottom of the dot.com crash, the day after 9/11, or the depths of the Great Recession? Wow.

In many ways, yes, I do. All the things you mention were certainly major shocks to the system, and I would never minimize them (especially 9/11) but in each case, at least a clear path forward was identified as to how to recover. Certainly not everyone agreed on that path, but at least we knew (generally) what course we were going to be on.

I look at the headlines now (take the last two weeks, for example, but even going back further), and all I see is continued chaos, and expectations for more chaos in the weeks ahead. Not only not much agreement on how to address any of the major issues that face us, but outright fear, confusion, and even hatred being expressed as well. I don't want to take this thread in a political direction, so I will stop there. But I think it's hard to dispute that we are living in times of massive uncertainty. It's hard for me to believe that the markets can thrive in a situation like this.


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