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-   -   I vote to call it a Bear Market! (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-vote-to-call-it-a-bear-market-95345.html)

TNBigfoot 12-20-2018 08:49 PM

+1. Think the politics at play will make it so. Hoping its a short one. Looking at Oct 19 fore FIRE.

Chuckanut 12-20-2018 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160448)
Yep, I’m waiting for the official S&P 500 index 20% down.

+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Keep in mind oil has hit another low. While this may not be great for the industries and areas where most oil is produced, it is good for businesses and consumers and even government agencies that do things like run bus lines. And unemployment is still very low. It's not all bad news.

FWIW, investors need lower prices to get the returns they need to FIRE. Maybe not this group, but others do.

audreyh1 12-20-2018 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160455)
+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Keep in mind oil has hit another low. While this may not be great for the industries and areas where most oil is produced, it is good for businesses and consumers and even government agencies that do things like run bus lines. And unemployment is still very low. It's not all bad news.

FWIW, investors need lower prices to get the returns they need to FIRE. Maybe not this group, but others do.

Well it will certainly bring down the headline CPI and PPI numbers, putting less pressure on the Fed to be aggressive against inflation.

redduck 12-20-2018 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160455)
+1

Wake me up when it drops 20% and I may start to bite.

Sounds like you're kind of aggressive when someone wakes you.

NW-Bound 12-20-2018 10:22 PM

Grizzly coming out of hibernation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YexQcXnVSzg

atmsmshr 12-21-2018 05:57 AM

+1 or -1 depending on what Running Man says.

Maenad 12-21-2018 06:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by footenote (Post 2160405)
+1

This bear has been / continues to be forecast by many previously-reliable signals.

Yeah, for years now. ;D

ShokWaveRider 12-21-2018 07:22 AM

Getting there +1. I think like when one gets a disease or ailment, the first reaction is denial. I do not think it is just the USA. There is so much geopolitical uncertainty, all markets are somewhat volatile. As for the USA, 10 years of a rally has to end at some point. The market cannot just go up ad infinitum.

I just looked at the 100 DOW year chart, with respect to 3 bear markets, '82, '02, '09

The drops in Rough numbers were: 5k, 5k & 8k respectively.

Again these numbers are NOT exact just a very rough average. So based on this one can reasonably expect a ~40% to ~50% drop in the near future from the 2018 high. This is pure speculation on my behalf.

CRLLS 12-21-2018 07:30 AM

Bear is just a name. Whether it is called a Correction or a Bear market, I picked the wrong year to start retirement withdrawals.:facepalm:

street 12-21-2018 08:21 AM

WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

revhappy 12-21-2018 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by street (Post 2160582)
WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

The crash is one thing and what happens after that is equally important. In 2008, the market didn't take too long to bounce back so if you closed your eyes for 2 years you won't notice anything. I hope this time too the bounce back is as swift.

Closet_Gamer 12-21-2018 08:39 AM

+1...but I'm biased as I'm rooting for Mr. Bear to arrive.

I will be a net buyer of securities for at least the next 10 years, probably more like 15 years. I'd rather buy them cheaply.

My next tranche of stock options would lock at a lower price. (Tactical problem would be that my restricted shares would vest at a lower price, but those aren't levered while options are.)

A good bear that knocks my assets back will also stiffen my spine a bit on ensuring I'm really financially ready to FIRE.

C'mon Mr. Bear. Papa wants to see Dow 19K!!

USGrant1962 12-21-2018 10:05 AM

Everyone knows that -16% is an antelope market.
-17% is an otter.
-18% is a zebra.
-19% is a garden slug.
-20% is a bear.
-21% is a donkey.

As others have said - the market doesn't care, but there is a generally accepted definition of bear, and we are not there. Yet.

MichaelB 12-21-2018 10:10 AM

Its a vomiting camel
 
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BuFOx3uDbu4

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 10:11 AM

I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160650)
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

No doubt the Vomiting Camel was named by the same guys who named the constellations. ;D

RenoJay 12-21-2018 10:15 AM

+2

I think much of the investing world is in denial. In 2008 - 2012, I could barely find anyone who thought stocks made sense. They gave plenty of reasons. In the press it was labeled, "the most hated bull market in history." Now, AFTER an amazing 10 year run, it seems everyone I talk to is suddenly a believer in buy and hold, indexing, etc. Generally euphoria comes at the end of a bull market and it takes a long time for The Euphoric to acknowledge things have changed. (I have Bitcoin friends who keep telling me how they're staying the course, LOL! I wonder what would have happened if they challenged their own beliefs a year ago??) Anyway, I'm mostly out of this market and will get back in when I start seeing threads where virtually no one can say anything positive about the future of stocks.

OldShooter 12-21-2018 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut (Post 2160651)
I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
Warren Buffett

street 12-21-2018 10:25 AM

Good stuff! Even in bad times we have to find the good and be able to laugh. The bad times go by faster that way. LOL

SumDay 12-21-2018 10:28 AM

I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d


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