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-   -   I vote to call it a Bear Market! (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-vote-to-call-it-a-bear-market-95345.html)

GravitySucks 12-21-2018 10:46 AM

-1.
Probably next week though ...
I don't care as much if the market gets labelled Correction or Bear as much as I stay labelled Eccentric rather than Crazy.

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160650)
According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

This gets my vote for the best response so far. And yes, looking at my portfolio I do feel like vomiting too.

Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth.

On the bright side, we did a kitchen remodel and most of that money came out before the markets had a chance to loose it.

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal (Post 2160677)
Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth...

I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself. :)

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160713)
I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself. :)

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

I would never propose you brush that bear's teeth. :)

audreyh1 12-21-2018 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumDay (Post 2160661)
I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d

Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160728)
Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

So figure we can "lift our Hedges" in time for Xmas 2019! Now, what can I do to occupy my time next year? Oh right, I can do my 2020 stagflation preparation!

UnrealizedPotential 12-21-2018 12:26 PM

+1


I am calling this a bear market. The Nasdaq is already there. Plus I see absolutely nothing that is going to change things around anytime soon. The Fed wants to keep raising interest rates, twice penciled in next year, which is subject to change up or down. Trade with China doesn't look hopeful and we have a government shutdown looming.


The Fed thinks the economy is doing fine, the stock market thinks it's slowing down. So many issues out there, and not much hope anything gets fixed anytime soon. So while we are not officially there in all three major U.S. indexes, I think a Bear market will happen soon across the board.

steelyman 12-21-2018 12:39 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

W2R 12-21-2018 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman (Post 2160745)
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th. If you include my bank account it's down even less. And this is before getting a good chunk of my December yield.

Not a Bear Market for me.... just a huggable Teddy Bear market.

Just 6 days after my infamous "Wheee!!!" post in October of 2008, my portfolio had dropped 7.4%.

And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

steelyman 12-21-2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2160750)
After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th.



Not a bear for me....



Excellent! You can watch all the doom and gloom headlines and let them roll off.

My recent high point was later in the year, probably July or August. I withdrew some not long after so would have to adjust to get a real reading. I think it helps to keep things in context (vs get too swept up by headlines).

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2160750)
And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

NW-Bound 12-21-2018 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2160728)
Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

Okie dokie. We should all prepare ourselves for one more year of pain.

Where's that button that Jim Cramer has for sound effects?

"The house of pain!"

W2R 12-21-2018 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160762)
It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

Well, I was working for the first thirteen months after Wheee!!! day (retired on 11/9/2009). So an increase of 40% is not as great as it sounds. Still, I have no complaints about the market since then, as a whole.

One great thing about the market falling like this - - - FINALLY we may be spared the endless predictions of an imminent crash, by both forum members and mass media financial analysts, that we have been enduring constantly for the past decade.

dtbach 12-21-2018 02:00 PM

I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

Dtail 12-21-2018 02:05 PM

Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

W2R 12-21-2018 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dtbach (Post 2160774)
I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

I know this probably sounds sick, but TBH I am so glad the waiting is over! Everyone has been expecting this for ages. It's been reminiscent of The Pit and The Pendulum by E.A. Poe.

I am SO ready for this. I have a paid off house and car, no debt, low expenses, and claimed Social Security based on my own employment last July, at age 70. Love those big SS deposits! Not only that, but I have extra cash in the bank that I was going to use to buy that SUV that I never did buy, plus cash that is actually 2018 money that I never spent since no big unexpected expenses came up this year.

Moemg 12-21-2018 02:09 PM

I just find this market annoying.We need one good day between all the gloom.It is dampening my Christmas mojo.

steelyman 12-21-2018 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman (Post 2160745)
I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.


I went ahead and did a rough, not laser-precise, calculation using my data with a weekly granularity.

My recent high occurred during the first week of September. Since then, down ~11.85% so I call a personal correction. Of course, who knows if that will become a bear?

NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail (Post 2160778)
Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

I am thinking more like the 2007 highs!

MichaelB 12-21-2018 02:16 PM

How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.

Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.


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