Are you getting ready to make major equity shifts?

[Lsbcal]

In the next month or so are you thinking seriously about making changes? There is a lot of angst out there.

In this poll I am not referring at all to fixed income allocation. So take whatever equities you have and consider that part in isolation for the percentage calculation.

Example:
You have a 60/40 portfolio. Equities are at $600k right now. You are nervous and want to reduce these to set the portfolio at 50/50. So you would reduce equities by $100k. The reduction in just equites is 100/600 which means a -17% reduction. You would answer "Reduce by as much as -25%".

 

[REWahoo]

Are you getting ready to make major equity shifts?

No.

DW is in the process of moving her IRA accounts from USAA Investments (sold to Victory Capital) to Vanguard and may end up with a small reduction in equities, but nothing major. I'm making no changes to my AA.

 

[Another Reader]

The only asset class I am considering reducing is real estate. It's starting to look an awful lot like 2006 out there...

The only bonds I own are in Welliington and a little Wellesley. Sort of autopilot, set and forget IRA investments. T-Bills for short term cash in the inherited IRA with RMD's. I have two pensions, Social Security and a rental portfolio. I don't need no stinking bonds.

 

[MichaelB]

Not planning on reducing my equity allocation. If there were a meaningful decline in the next month or so I might increase it by “up to 25%”

 

[HenryD]

I usually target 6% cash, but have allowed that to drift up to 15% over the last few months as we've climbed the wall of worry. I've since reverted to using contributions to nudge me back towards my target AA, but if there are any major dislocations I will rebalance more aggressively.

 

[davebarnes]

No.
We (ages 71/62) have cash/short-term bonds equal to 8+ years of withdrawals.
I am working to reduce, month by month, that to 5+ years.
I really don't think about asset allocation ratios. I just want a cushion against a multi-year downturn.

 

[Midpack]

No changes, just like I did in 2008 thankfully. In 1987, I went all in with all the cash we had, and it paid off handsomely. I did nothing when the dotcom bubble burst either. We probably couldn’t have retired early if we had sold off or even reduced equity exposure in 1987, 2000 or 2008.

Sure I worried a little “this time might be different” in 2008, but I didn’t lose any sleep over it because I’d read The Four Pillars of Investing and other books thoroughly explaining market history/behavior/cycles. Every time there are “experts” and many more non-experts saying “this time is different,” and they’ve been wrong every time since 1871. FIRECALC includes the Depression of the 1930’s if you want to see worst case odds, along with other extended recessions. If you sold off during the 2008 recession, odds are you lost money in your portfolio, some people missed out on good returns for years. If you did nothing you had great returns just waiting (see below).

Recessions are unpleasant, seemingly necessary (due to human behavior), but they’ve always been followed by a greater expansion for most modern economies.

Market timing doesn’t work for 99% of even serious investors. Don’t let another poll spook you into thinking smart money is bailing out.

 

[Which Roger]

Everybody knows that there's a lot of angst out there, so the angst is already reflected in current stock prices. Stay the course.

 

[OldShooter]

Wise group here, I think.

 

[steelyman]

I moved enough from stock funds to cash in tax-advantaged accounts to cover my 2019 withdrawal that will happen at year-end. This was done a couple of months ago and was triggered by exceeding my rebalance bands (prior to the recent downturns).

The only unknown is how much of the withdrawal will be from tax-deferred accounts and how much from tax-free.

 

[Dtail]

Buy and hold. Only rebalancing based on range parameters if necessary.

 

[W2R]

My planned AA is 42% equities, 58% fixed (bonds and cash). Normally I only re-balance during the first week in January. Before even considering re-balancing mid year, like this, my re-balancing bands require my equities to be either less than 39.5% or else over 44.5%.

I just recalculated my present AA.

Planned: 42.0% equities, 58.0% fixed.
Today's: 42.6% equities, 57.4% fixed.

"The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!"
"When in Danger or in Doubt, Run in Circles Scream and Shout!"

(P.S. - - like many of us, I noticed that my nest egg has grown substantially compared with what it was on January 3rd. This whole panic is just a media driven tempest in a teapot, for now, IMO).

 

[Car-Guy]

Yes, bought some late last week and will probably buy more in the weeks to come as opportunities come up. Lot's of dry powder.

 

[pb4uski]

I am reducing my equity AA somewhat, but not due to any discomfort with equities. Over the last few months I have taken advantage of some credit union CD specials.... Suncoast 3.5% for 5 years, Navy Federal 3.5% for 5 years and GTE Financial 3.0% for 5 years.

Given the economic situation and uncertainty, I'm finding 3.0-3.5% nominal and possibly 1.0% to 2.0% real returns with no credit risk and no interest rate risk hard to resist with brokered 5 year CDs at about 2% nominal... if I take full advantage of these opportunities then my equity percentage would drop from ~60% to ~50% and I'll then let it creep back up to 60%.

I'm well prepared for the flaming that I am a DMT.

 

[Dtail]

My planned AA is 42% equities, 58% fixed (bonds and cash). Normally I only re-balance during the first week in January. Before even considering re-balancing mid year, like this, my re-balancing bands require my equities to be either less than 39.5% or else over 44.5%.

I just recalculated my present AA.

Planned: 42.0% equities, 58.0% fixed.
Today's: 42.6% equities, 57.4% fixed.

"The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!"
"When in Danger or in Doubt, Run in Circles Scream and Shout!"

Is this going to have the opposite effect of "Whee"?

 

[GrayHare]

Major change, no, but I'm considering a small move toward cash and/or PMs. The scheduled December 15th China trade deadline has caught my attention. If stock values drop toward year end, that leaves more room for the following year's year-to-date performance to look better.

 

[W2R]

Is this going to have the opposite effect of "Whee"?

Dunno!!! Bear in mind that right now I am under the influence of heavy (prescription) opioids for pain from my knee replacement surgery eleven days ago....

 

[CyclingInvestor]

No, staying at 100% stocks (since 1993).

 

[Lsbcal]

...

Market timing doesn’t work for 99% of even serious investors. Don’t let another poll spook you into thinking smart money is bailing out.

Just want to make it clear that I am not suggesting anybody bail out or change their investment approach. There is no substitute for using your brain and making your own decisions.

I have my own approach but that is not what this poll is about. Just curious what the folks here are thinking.

Now if you want to know what I am going to do ...... your not going to find it here as I don't completely know at this moment which way I will go. This is because I have employed trend following since 2009. I've kept equity allocations in the 50 to 60% range at least as far back as the year 2000.

 

[NW-Bound]

"Scream and Shout!"

Isn't "scream and shout" superfluous?

One is supposed to "Twist and Shout".

 

[Another Reader]

Dunno!!! Bear in mind that right now I am under the influence of heavy (prescription) opioids for pain from my knee replacement surgery eleven days ago....

Let us know when you are able to dance the happy dance while singing the "wheee" song again. Don't want to miss the selling opportunity just because the signal is broken...

 

[NW-Bound]

Just want to make it clear that I am not suggesting anybody bail out or change their investment approach. There is no substitute for using your brain and making your own decisions.

I have my own approach but that is not what this poll is about. Just curious what the folks here are thinking...

Ever since I became an active investor more than 20 years ago, I have done all the things people say I should not. However, I just don't trust myself enough to ever shift 100% to stock or 100% to cash/bond. But I do practice Tactical AA.

My usual stock AA is 70%-80%. It is currently at 64%. I may go as low as 50%, by selling into a dead-cat bounce if that happens. If the market crashes hard from here, I will not sell. I may also do sector rotation if I feel like it.

In other words, I will do the same that I have been doing, ever since I became more active in investing.

 

[jollystomper]

I am sticking with my current AA (40% equities) as that is the level I can sleep at night comfortably at times like these. It is coupled having enough cash to last until we choose to take SS so that the market does not impact our normal spending.

 

[N02L84ER]

Not planning to change my AA unless a programmed rebalance criteria is triggered.

 

[SecondCor521]

Not planning on reducing my equity allocation. If there were a meaningful decline in the next month or so I might increase it by “up to 25%”

+1.

I'm somewhere around 93/7 with a 0.82% net WR. I'm waiting for more angst.