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Forum: Travel Information 05-29-2016, 05:33 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 2,121
Posted By Gone4Good
We've spent the last six years traveling year...

We've spent the last six years traveling year round and our rafting trip through the Grand Canyon still ranks as one of our best travel experiences ever.

It's a fairly physical excursion but one...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-28-2016, 04:17 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 7,227
Posted By Gone4Good
Here's what the internal rate of return looks...

Here's what the internal rate of return looks like for the "Delay SS until 70 Decision".

You have to live until about 74.5 before you break even. If you die sooner than that, you lose tons of...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-26-2016, 03:40 PM
Replies: 80
Views: 7,227
Posted By Gone4Good
Wouldn't it make the most sense for the person...

Wouldn't it make the most sense for the person most likely to live the longest to delay, which I think would normally be the female spouse if both are healthy or the healthiest of the two otherwise?
Forum: Hi, I am... 05-24-2016, 04:25 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 8,010
Posted By Gone4Good
Thanks for the suggestion. As far as prices...

Thanks for the suggestion.

As far as prices go, our original home and default base is the New York City area, so most places look "cheap" by comparison . . . and spacious. :)
Forum: Hi, I am... 05-23-2016, 12:18 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 8,010
Posted By Gone4Good
Had to look it up but I'd say The Villages has...

Had to look it up but I'd say The Villages has ruled us out for at least another 10 years. We'll probably rule it out thereafter, though. :)
Forum: Hi, I am... 05-23-2016, 12:07 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 8,010
Posted By Gone4Good
I'd consider FL as a base for when we're not...

I'd consider FL as a base for when we're not traveling. Our problem is that we're really keen to live in a city where we don't need a car every time we want or need to go somewhere. That rules out...
Forum: FIRE Related Public Policy 05-23-2016, 11:42 AM
Replies: 56
Views: 4,009
Posted By Gone4Good
Start telling people "no" Or, more...

Start telling people "no"

Or, more precisely, "Sure you can have that procedure/medication, as long as you pay for it yourself."

And to doctors/hospitals, "sure we'll pay for that...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-23-2016, 09:57 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 2,364
Posted By Gone4Good
You know how that ends, right? It is a far,...

You know how that ends, right?

It is a far, far better thing that I do than I have ever done. A far, far better resting place that I go to than I've ever known. :dead:
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-23-2016, 02:27 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 2,364
Posted By Gone4Good
If you believe in mean reversion then flat after...

If you believe in mean reversion then flat after several years of ~15% compound annual gains has to be good because we can revert in only two ways: either slow and steady or fast and painful.
Forum: Other topics 05-21-2016, 11:15 AM
Replies: 41
Views: 1,678
Posted By Gone4Good
How many early retirees does it take to change a...

How many early retirees does it take to change a light bulb?

None, it's too much work.
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-20-2016, 11:06 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,529
Posted By Gone4Good
My first response to the question of "Will it...

My first response to the question of "Will it work" was "It's Forbes, so no."

My second response is well, it depends on the meaning of "works." It's a % of portfolio approach so by definition it...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-20-2016, 10:09 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,176
Posted By Gone4Good
Yes, definitely get knowledgeable. It's a class...

Yes, definitely get knowledgeable. It's a class of securities that has tons of variability between securities and plenty of trap doors. You should know what straight, cumulative, convertible,...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-20-2016, 09:03 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,176
Posted By Gone4Good
We spend about 10 months a year overseas and I...

We spend about 10 months a year overseas and I had thought briefly about factoring this in to our asset allocation. I decided against it because we don't have a permanent residence anywhere outside...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-20-2016, 06:06 AM
Replies: 43
Views: 5,623
Posted By Gone4Good
I'd have to spend a lot more time working through...

I'd have to spend a lot more time working through the math to see how this works but at first blush it just doesn't seem right.

Here are the initial assumptions . . .



So bonds return 5%...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-20-2016, 05:48 AM
Replies: 90
Views: 5,341
Posted By Gone4Good
VAT is one one way. A carbon tax is another. A...

VAT is one one way. A carbon tax is another. A wealth tax is a third. Taxing Roth withdrawals directly is a fourth. Including Roth withdrawals as "income" for determining things like taxes on SS is a...
Forum: FIRE and Money 05-20-2016, 03:11 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,176
Posted By Gone4Good
+1 Anyone who plans to retire and live off...

+1

Anyone who plans to retire and live off an investment portfolio needs to internalize this point. Down markets are part of the bargain.

One of the tricks markets play on investors and...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-20-2016, 03:04 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 10,386
Posted By Gone4Good
You'd have found plenty of folks pooping the...

You'd have found plenty of folks pooping the sheets here just like everywhere else in 2009.

Following forums like this through multiple market cycles provides a front row seat to mass-investor...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-19-2016, 04:06 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 10,386
Posted By Gone4Good
I think what you mean is that a PE based on...

I think what you mean is that a PE based on trailing earnings spiked in 2009 because earnings collapsed. CAPE meanwhile fell to around 11x in March 2009 and some of us said at the time...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-19-2016, 11:37 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 10,386
Posted By Gone4Good
And if you bring that forward from 2000 until May...

And if you bring that forward from 2000 until May 2016 your average annual return over the past 16.5 years bumps up to 2.0% real with dividends reinvested.

The good news is that valuations on the...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-19-2016, 02:35 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 10,386
Posted By Gone4Good
I guess you're talking about this from...

I guess you're talking about this from yesterday's Fed Minute's release. . .

Fed Is Seriously Considering Raising Interest Rates in June, Meeting Minutes Say...
Forum: Travel Information 05-18-2016, 09:31 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,613
Posted By Gone4Good
+1

+1
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy 05-18-2016, 02:12 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 10,386
Posted By Gone4Good
Yup. And if you own any meaningful amount of...

Yup.

And if you own any meaningful amount of international equities in your portfolio that flatness over the past year looks a bit more like down-ness.
Forum: Other topics 05-18-2016, 02:00 AM
Replies: 34
Views: 1,467
Posted By Gone4Good
My approach is not to pay an insurance company to...

My approach is not to pay an insurance company to shoulder any financial risk I can manage on my own. Car deductibles of any size fall in to that category.
Forum: Travel Information 05-17-2016, 09:55 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,613
Posted By Gone4Good
I never claimed that the value of these places is...

I never claimed that the value of these places is in their objectivity. The value is that they help us understand another culture's perspective; witness their hardships; perceive their humanity in a...
Forum: FIRE Related Public Policy 05-17-2016, 05:41 AM
Replies: 56
Views: 4,009
Posted By Gone4Good
It all depends on other factors. A long-run...

It all depends on other factors. A long-run sustainable government debt load is generally viewed this way . . .

Sustainable Debt to GDP = (primary deficit)/(nominal growth rate of GDP - nominal...
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